Gab Sutton weekly: Plenty can still be sucked into League Two dogfight
In his latest exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) takes a forensic look at how the League Two relegation scrap is shaping up...
It would be very easy to look at Morecambe and Accrington Stanley’s winless starts to the season and say that the tone for the rest of the campaign has been set.
The two Lancashire underdogs were many people’s tips for relegation before the season and both would be up against it at this level if they were well-run, let alone with ownership question marks.
In the Shrimps’ case, there’s grave concern around where the money’s going to come from, with Jason Whittingham’s communication as owner having proven to be both intermittent and unreliable.
Stanley are more stable as a structural entity, but there’s almost greater uneasiness because of how owner Andy Holt — once considered a legendary figure — has behaved over the last year, much though the fanbase have tried their best to rally around John Doolan and the team.
So, given the different nature of the challenges either club is facing, performance levels have been surprisingly encouraging — and a lot more positive than results have suggested.
Derek Adams’ side have been competitive in all their games, besides poor first halves at Fleetwood and Accrington. So when they ultimately got their first win of the season at neighbours Barrow, it didn’t come as a huge shock.
That said, I do think they’ll have to be at their best to get something in any given game, because their squad is made up almost entirely of players who wouldn’t have got an EFL offer were it not for Morecambe’s financial predicament — hence they don’t have the quality to grab points when they’re not at full pelt.
Conversely, Stanley have produced some creative, vibrant displays so far this season. Thererfore, seeing them get back-to-back victories over Morecambe and Gillingham wasn’t a huge shock either.
The Reds have always had that capacity to create chances, with different individuals standing out at different stages of the season. Be it the link-up between ex-Boston pair Jimmy Knowles and Kelsey Mooney, the final third finesse of Dara Costelloe, or the age-defying speed of driven 36-year-old Shaun Whalley.
So, with both relegation candidates showing signs of life, the battle to avoid the EFL’s trap-door is becoming quite the puzzle.
Arguably, most in danger are Cheltenham Town. This writer has happened to watch all three of their league wins this season and Michael Flynn’s side didn’t convince in any of them, each against one of the weaker sides in the league in Newport, Harrogate and Stanley.
It can’t have been easy for Flynn. Inheriting a relegated club needing fresh ideas off the field, signing 19 new players and operating alongside a Director of Football in Gary Johnson who might be difficult to work with.
However, we’re coming up to a quarter of the way through the season and there remains no clear identity for supporters to buy into. The Robins look imbalanced, and Flynn has been guilty of weighting his selections more on favouritism than on meritocracy.
It’s often felt as though the likes of Levi Laing, Lewis Payne, Harrison Sohna, Jordan Thomas and Liam Dulson don’t get the opportunities that their contributions have merited, in favour of Flynn’s fancies.
But, for Flynn’s floors, him staying in charge is better than the alternative, which is Gary Johnson appointing his son, Lee, who attended last weekend’s 3-2 home loss to Swindon.
Every decision that is made at Cheltenham right now seems to be dictated by partiality, which is the opposite of how effective modern clubs are run.
Also in trouble are Swindon, who have bigger off-field problems through bad ownership from Clem Morfuni. No club is too big to go down from this level, as Bristol Rovers, Tranmere and Notts County have all proven in the last decade.
I still think Town’s squad is good enough for midtable. However, the fact they’ve taken four points from a possible 15 at the County Ground would suggest an uneasiness among fans with the current state of the club that could be affecting home performance.
Newport and Harrogate have assembled healthy early tallies, amassing 15 and 14 points from their first 11 respectively — but either could plummet.
County are looking to embrace a more progressive style under Nelson Jardim this season, and he’s been able to implement it quickly. Yet they’ve still conceded 21 goals so far and have had goalkeeper Nick Townsend’s shot-stopping to thank in one or two games as well — so they have to improve defensively.
Simon Weaver’s side, meanwhile, are a tidy enough footballing outfit when they’re given the space to play because they’ve got some neat players in Stephen Dooley, Ellis Taylor and Matty Daly.
I do feel Town miss a bit of physicality in that side, though — especially in midfield — and I wonder if they’re able to earn the right to play when they face more aggressive opponents, which could be their achilles heel.
So, I still expect Newport and Harrogate to finish lower than their current positions and perhaps come into this relegation equation.
I would worry about Bromley, too, if Michael Cheek were to get injured, because while he’s their top marksman with six goals, nobody else has scored more than once for the Ravens.
They’ve gone winless in eight, losing four, since starting their EFL adventure with back-to-back wins, but six of those games came against top half opposition, another was against much-fancied MK Dons, and the other was a trip to Danny Cowley’s Colchester.
So, I’d be happy to say, given the spirit and togetherness of that group that won promotion from the National League via the play-offs last season, they’ll pick things up again now the fixtures are starting to get a little bit kinder.
I think Salford have a better squad than Bromley on paper, but I don’t think it’s been designed with too much care and precision, which is why they’ve looked a tad imbalanced so far this season.
It feels as if the Class of 92 are jumping ship now at the Peninsula Stadium, with CEO Nicky Butt resigning as well this week. The money from Peter Lim seems to be running out and I would fear that their attraction as an EFL club is waning.
The club’s up for sale, but the fanbase hasn’t grown in line with what was expected a few years ago — so what’s the attraction for a prospective buyer?
And then we’ve not mentioned Carlisle, yet, because they have one of the biggest budgets in the league, but they’re also bottom of the table.
Mike Williamson hasn’t been able to implement his ideas at Brunton Park as quickly as he was at Stadium:MK, largely because the United squad hasn’t been built for his style of football.
Ten weeks is a long time between now and January, so Williamson is going to have to be pragmatic and find a way of getting results out of his current group in the short-term, and I’m sure he’ll be keen to add his own players in the next window.
If Carlisle are in the same position next time we address this part of the table, I may have to start considering them as a relegation candidate, but at this stage we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt because I think when midfielder Callum Guy returns, they’ll have the quality to pull clear.
In terms of the fixtures, Harrogate and Cheltenham are their next two home games, either side of Tuesday’s trip to Walsall, and I feel they can take four to six points from those three which would certainly ease the situation.
So, I think the bottom six will comprise of Morecambe, Accrington Stanley, Cheltenham, Swindon, Harrogate and Newport.
My two before the season were Stanley and Harrogate, but I’d probably change that now because I’m most worried about Cheltenham — so I’ll say them and Accy. Tough call, though.
Gab's verdict