Gab Sutton weekly: Who wins the race for a Championship play-off spot?

Barring a significant collapse from Leeds, Sheffield United, Burnley or Sunderland, it seems likely that four of the Championship’s top six are spoken for in some order.

That, then, would leave two spaces up for grabs for the rest. So, where to draw the line?

Separating the wheat from the chaff

Well, 13^th-placed Millwall actually have a better PPG return than 12^th-placed Sheffield Wednesday, with one point and game fewer on the column — yet Wednesday is probably where we’d draw the line.

Because, whereas the Owls have a high-potential coach in Danny Rohl who gives them some hope of achieving success in spite of a questionable ownership regime led by Dejphon Chansiri, the Lions have just parted company with club legend Neil Harris.

Replacing ‘Chopper’ won’t be easy. Only three or four managers have made it work at the Den in the last 19 years, so we’d rate the chances of an outsider coming into what is quite an insular club, and taking things by storm, to be pretty low.

So, for the purposes of this, we’ll rule out Millwall — at our peril, perhaps — but it’s Blackburn defying the odds in fifth, after John Eustace’s side completed five consecutive league wins, the last four of which being 1-0.

For Rovers to even be talked about as play-off contenders is an enormous compliment to the work Eustace has done to galvanise the club, following a summer in which the attitude towards on-field matters from the fanbase almost approached apathy, because of the club’s off-field woes.

The Lancashire outfit have a great spirit about them, while Todd Cantwell has brought a sprinkling of stardust in the number 10 role, but they may not quite have enough to hold onto a top six spot in a season that was initially all about survival.

John Eustace deserves tremendous praise for the job he's doing at Blackburn. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Similarly, many expected a season of struggle for Watford, who had what looked an imbalanced squad going into the campaign, and Tom Cleverley has worked wonders to get them in contention.

However, the Hornets may have one too many frailties, including a glaring problem in midfield: the right January recruitment might solve those issues, but I’m not sure I trust the club that saw Moussa Sissoko as a worthy captain to get that recruitment right.

Bristol City have made some real progress this year, under Liam Manning, and I think if they finish in the top 10 that would be a great step forward for them.

With the likes of Max O’Leary, Zak Vyner, Rob Dickie, Cam Pring, Jason Knight, Max Bird and Anis Mehmeti, City do have lots of players who are capable at their best, in their first XI.

However, many of those players can be guilty of inconsistency, moreover, they don’t have much creativity on the bench, especially due to the sporadic availability of Scott Twine.

Swansea are a good footballing side who can create chances, right-back Josh Key is enjoying a good season, Goncalo Franco looks a strong recruit from Moreirense and Matt Grimes has been the most consistent playmaker in the Championship over the last six years.

Three intro two could see Canaries miss out

So, I think it’ll come down to three teams competing for two spots in Middlesbrough, West Brom and Norwich — evenly-matched sides when everyone’s fit.

How I’d separate them is that Boro and Albion have had their respective managers, Michael Carrick and Carlos Corberan, in place for a couple of years so both have had time to impart their ideas on the squad.

Johannes Hoff Thorup has done that admirably quickly at Norwich, and we’re already seeing with some rampant Carrow Road performances what they can do at their best, but poor away form highlights an inconsistency that’s to be expected at this stage.

Plus, they haven’t been helped by missing star striker Josh Sargent until January: I would argue he’s their most important player, despite the sizzling goalscoring form of Borja Sainz, in terms of the way he brings the best out of those around him.

So, the Canaries might miss out this year but as long as they retain Thorup, I expect him to continue his excellent work into the following campaigns, when I imagine they’ll be extremely competitive at the summit.

This year, I think West Brom’s ability to strike the balance between creating chances whilst retaining their defensive solidity, thanks to excellent coaching from Corberan, will see them lose very few games and therefore tick over the points required to get into the top six.

This season may have come too soon for Norwich but expect them to be in contention for promotion over the coming seasons. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Meanwhile, Middlesbrough might concede a few more goals than the Baggies, but they’re bettered only by Leeds in this league as a creative entity, and eventually that will show in the ‘for’ column — especially with strikers in Emmanuel Latte Lath and Tommy Conway who have both shown to be capable.

In winger Ben Doak, on loan from Liverpool, and attacking midfielder Finn Azaz, Boro have two of the best players in the division, as well as an eclectic range of midfield options.

So, I think Middlesbrough and West Brom will join Sunderland, Leeds, Sheffield United and Burnley in the top six, with Norwich narrowly missing out.

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The Swans, though, have been wasteful in front of goal, whilst at other times being an easy side to create chances against: the might have been able to get into the Play-Offs with just one of those problems to solve, but addressing both might be too much of a tall order – same with Wednesday.