Gab Sutton weekly: Why you can Count on Notts for a top-three finish

In his latest exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) outlines why Notts County should be backed to secure a spot among the top three in League Two.

Notts County are as big as 2/1 in places currently for a top three finish in League Two, which I think is excellent value.

The fourth-tier’s promotion race is heavily congested, other than leaders Walsall, who find themselves 12 points clear of second, and 15 clear of fourth.

For instance, just three points separate third-placed Port Vale and Bradford, who are currently in eighth — and that’s with the Bantams having a game in hand.

Even if we go down to 12^th-placed MK Dons, if they win their two games in hand they’re four points off Vale, and six off second-placed Crewe, having assembled arguably the best set of midfield options in the league.

The point is, it’s extremely tight in the basement division right now.

So, the bad news for Notts County is that they have more teams to beat off in order to land an automatic promotion spot.

The good news is that the fact half the league have serious promotion potential means they will all take points off one another. Therefore, every team has a really tough match, on average, every other gameweek, so perhaps nobody will put together a serious winning run — and therein lies the Magpies’ opportunity.

Other than November, when Stuart Maynard’s side accrued two points from five games due to a tough run of fixtures and a spate of injuries, they’ve accumulated 41 points from the other 20 games.

If they sustained that form between now and May, they’d end up on 83 points, which by current projections would be enough for a top three berth.

Opportunity knocks

If we look above Notts, Crewe are average going forward as things stand – their strengths are far more in defence and midfield – and Lee Bell’s side have just lost their star attacker, Jack Lankester, to injury.

Conversely, Port Vale have a top-three squad on paper but it hasn’t been designed with an especially clear identity, and they’re nowhere near as good a footballing side collectively as Notts County.

AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, face top-half opposition in five of their next six league games, which should reveal more about whether they’re a serious top three candidate, as opposed to a worthy Play-Off prospect that’s simply benefited from a relatively favourable run.

So, it’s highly plausible that County can finish above two of the aforementioned sides, currently above them, if not all three — especially with star man Jodi Jones coming back to fitness.

Jones won Player of the Year in League Two last season, smashing the assists record with 24, and now he’ll come back into a team with better defensive foundations than the more fragile outfit we saw last term.

Notts are already the second-most creative side in the fourth-tier, narrowly behind Walsall with an xG For of 46.04, and that’s with Jones having started just six of a possible 25 games.

Jodi Jones' return from injury is a big boost for Notts County. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Therefore, if the 27-year-old finds fitness, their collective level of creativity could go off the scale, and they could find a similar run to the one Walsall have enjoyed.

And, as touched on above, Maynard’s side are much tighter than they were last season, going from conceding 1.87 goals per game on average in 2023-24, to 1.04 in 2024-25, reducing their leakage by 44%.

That is thanks in no small part to the impact of Jacob Bedeau, poached from Morecambe. He brings suitable ball-playing ability for the system combined with more pace and strength in 1v1 duels than anybody Notts had on the left of a back-three in the previous campaign.

Matty Platt has also proved an inspired acquisition in the middle of the rearguard, with the defensive lynchpin organising the defence superbly after joining from Bradford.

Conversely, questionable shot-stopping was another factor behind last season’s frequent concessions, and Alex Bass has put a stop to it this year, recording 10 clean sheets with just over half the season gone — already two more than the team managed throughout the whole of the previous campaign.

With more cohesive pressing and greater midfield depth also in the melting pot, Notts County have become a far better rounded team this season and could be set to reap the rewards.

Gab’s tip – Notts County top-three finish in League Two – 2/1 (Paddy Power/ Betfair)

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