Gab Sutton weekly: Why 11/2 Tranmere look overpriced for dreaded drop

In his latest exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) explains why Tranmere Rovers may be more vulnerable to dropping down into the National Leahgue than the current market suggests.

If Tranmere Rovers keep Nigel Adkins in charge until March or later, I would say they have around an 80% chance of relegation.

If they parted company with Adkins tomorrow, it might be more like 40%.

Either way, this is a club in freefall and a team in disarray, with a culture that’s on the floor.

Since taking an unconvincing eight points from their opening four games, the Wirral outfit have accrued a meagre 18 points from 23 outings – form which, if continued, would see them finish the campaign on 41 points.

For context, nobody in League Two has stayed up with 41 points or fewer since Grimsby all the way back in 2008-09.

Adkins had a healthy initial impact, last season, after getting the permanent job, because of the positivity he brings to a club and his ability to motivate the dressing room.

Sometimes, however, it’s important to address negatives directly in order to move forward, and the perception is that Adkins lacks the authority to really call people out.

The former Scunthorpe and Southampton back-to-back promotion winner has been unable, it seems, to impose genuine consequences for poor performance, so defenders like Tom Davies and Jordan Turnbull have started every week even if, since the 2022-23 campaign, their form has been nothing short of horrendous.

Conversely, discipline has remained a huge issue, with Rovers having accumulated five red cards this season. Their shooting has been wayward with a scattergun final third approach, while the minute they concede once, the floodgates tend to open.

Because Adkins seems to be continuing to bang the drum of a positive message, using platitudes and quotes like the one from Abraham Lincoln that he used on Radio Merseyside this week, the positive message can risk losing it’s meaning – and players seem to have stopped listening.

Adkins' leadership isn't having the desired affect at Prenton Park. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Lack of accountability

One would think that Adkins’ record this season would put his job in jeopardy, but because Mark and Nicola Palios have been absent and silent – perhaps partly for personal reasons concerning the former and the difficulties that may have brought.

But ultimately, there have been no consequences attached to him, in the same way none are attached to the players.

It’s plausible that the Palios’ had expected the takeover to have been completed by this point, which would explain why no business has been done this January despite the team having lost eight of their last 13 league games, winning only two.

As such, they may have hoped that the new owners would incur the cost of sacking Adkins and hiring a new one, as opposed to having to fork out themselves.

Whether it’s on the field or off it, Tranmere Rovers are desperately needing somebody, from somewhere, to grab the club by it’s ankles and start imposing consequences, because at the moment it’s sleepwalking into non-league.

If a new manager came in, things might improve with Josh Hawkes getting more of a fair chance, given the goalscoring potential he’s demonstrated out wide. Meanwhile, Sol Solomon may finally have an opportunity up front to replicate his National League North record with Marine AFC in League Two, at the expense of the largely profligate Josh Davison and Kristian Dennis.

And, with Regan Hendry returning from injury in coming weeks to offer some playmaking qualities in midfield, Tranmere might just have enough quality in their squad to stay up –– with the right leadership.

Josh Hawkes has shown some positive signs but has been starved of opportunities at Prenton Park. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Are the bookies sleeping?

It’s far from a likelihood as things stand, though, yet the traders haven’t quite cottoned on to the extent of their troubles.

The Birkenhead outfit are considered the fifth favourites for the drop, behind Morecambe, Carlisle, Newport and Harrogate.

Bet365, for instance, have Carlisle as short as 13/8 for relegation (38.1% implied probability), and Tranmere, astonishingly, as big as 11/2 (15.4%).

Yet the Cumbrians have addressed their situation with an aggressive January, recruiting 10 new players, and it’s already resulted in improved performances in their last two games, including a 2-1 victory at Fleetwood.

Given the renewed belief and elevated quality at Brunton Park, the five point gap between themselves and Rovers is nothing. I would make the statement that Carlisle have a far better chance of beating the drop, yet the traders don’t think so.

Even Morecambe, who are current favourites for the drop, have been competitive in most of their games this season, have a great spirit in the camp and a legendary manager in Derek Adams who everybody at the club has utmost faith in.

You could argue the Shrimps have a better chance than Tranmere, even with a far more limited squad and tighter financial constraints.

So, the 11/2 on Tranmere to go down looks phenomenal value, and seems to be a case of bookmakers blindly believing the bigger clubs will probably just improve, without any real evidence of that happening.

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