Gab Sutton weekly: Who finishes top two in the Championship?

In his latest exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) takes a closer look at the automatic promotion race in the Championship and predicts which two sides will seal a play-off free passage to the Premier League in May.

It feels early to call anything in the EFL a four-horse race, when we haven’t even passed the halfway point of the campaign.

As things stand, however, it would require 92 points for a team outside the current top two, Sheffield United and Leeds, to achieve automatic promotion, of which only Burnley, Sunderland and Blackburn have a PPG return – 1.95, 1.90 and 1.85 respectively— that would get anywhere near (89.7, 87.4 and 85.1 respsectively).

And, while the latter have done incredibly well to defy all expectation to be in the mix this season, they don’t have the same depth and quality as their rivals to come into the top two conversation just yet, even if they do have to be taken seriously as play-off contenders.

Conversely, Middlesbrough have performed as well as anyone in the league, both defensively and in terms of creating chances, but their points return has been let down by inconsistent finishing.

And, for Boro to get to 92 points, they would need a mammoth 58 points from 25 games — in other words 2.32 PPG, when they’re currently on 1.62.

It’s not completely impossible that Michael Carrick’s side really catch fire in the second half of the campaign, with the right January additions to complement star men like Hayden Hackney, Ben Doak and Finn Azaz.

And, if Sheffield United and Leeds drop their PPG returns sufficiently for the bar for automatic promotion to be more in the mid-80s range, then perhaps the Teessiders have the faintest sniff.

In the interests of simplicity, though, we’ll take the more simplistic route and exclude Blackburn and Middlesbrough, impressive as they are, from this conversation.

Clarets could struggle to keep pace with three rivals

I feel Burnley are the weakest of the four, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they finished in one of the lower play-off spots as opposed to staying with Sheffield United, Leeds and Sunderland.

Their defensive record is impeccable and they have two excellent centre-backs in Maxime Esteve and CJ Egan-Riley, but are nonetheless highly reliant on goalkeeper James Trafford.

To have conceded just eight goals all season is extremely impressive, but it’s a rate Scott Parker’s side unlikely to sustain with an xG Against of 18.82. It wouldn’t surprise me if they started typically conceding one goal in most of their games as opposed to keeping a clean sheet.

And, if that happens, the Clarets will have to start scoring more than once — something they’ve only done in a third of their games. In fact, they’ve not found the net more than twice since the goal glut of the first two weeks with a completely different squad.

Burnley don’t create very much, they rely on moments of individual brilliance from outside the box, and that’s not something that tends to be repeatable over the course of a campaign.

So, they’ll hit a spell in the season where, without playing too differently, Trafford will cease to save almost every shot that comes his way, while the team will hit a mental block in the final third and perhaps lose confidence.

Blades could be blunted by busy schedule

I also think Sheffield United will encounter some problems that could hinder their top two bid, because while their best XI is extremely strong, the Blades don’t have much in the way of depth.

Chris Wilder’s side have about 12 players who I’m very confident can really move the needle at this level, but then there’s another seven who, it’s touch and go whether they’d start for midtable sides. Beyond that, it's six youngsters, of which four or five would benefit from going out on loan.

So, keep the aforementioned dozen fit, fresh and available for the duration, and they will get top two — but that’s unlikely.

More plausible is that three or four of them will be injured at any one time, and another three or four will become jaded through having to start so many games, giving United a mixture of fatigued first-teamers, squad players who represent a significant drop-off in quality, and the odd youngster who may not be ready to find the consistency required.

And, that mixture probably doesn’t get Wilder’s men top two, so their fortunes will be dictated by events in January.

An optimist says the Steel City outfit might be able to add four or five, under new ownership, but the flip side is concerns over whether Crystal Palace and Leicester might recall influential winger Jesurun Rak-Sakyi and towering centre-back Harry Souttar from their respective loan spells.

Plus, Premier League interest in goalkeeper Michael Cooper and star midfielder Gus Hamer seems inevitable.

So, despite their outstanding first half of the campaign, there remains one too many unknowns for the Blades to stay in the top two.

Black Cats purring and Leeds will be all-White

So, by process of elimination, my picks would be Sunderland and Leeds.

The Black Cats have a talented young squad that now has a bit more experience under their belt, with Jobe Bellingham and Chris Rigg in midfield looking prodigious talents who can achieve anything they put their minds to.

The Wearsiders have displayed an admirable ability to tick over points in difficult circumstances, such as a recent tough run of fixtures in the middle of an injury crisis, and one defeat in 14 shows a great resilience, inspired by great leaders like versatile defender Luke O’Nien.

With teenage prodigy Tommy Watson starring on the left, prior to a two-month lay-off, to provide competition from Romaine Mundle, on his way back from the sidelines, and Wilson Isidor producing some cultured finishes in attack, Sunderland have the means to hurt their opponents.

So, Regis Le Bris' men would be a narrow pick for top spot, closely followed by Leeds, who have been so dominant at home.

Issues between the sticks and up top has stopped the Whites from having the impact in both boxes to win more games away, where they’re not as dominant territorially as they are at Elland Road.

With Pascal Struijk forging a great relationship with Joe Rodon at the back, however, and Ao Tanaka thriving alongside Joe Rothwell in midfield — with Ethan Ampadu still to return — the Whites look strong and should secure a top two berth.