Everton vs Burnley: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Everton host fellow relegation-battlers Burnley on Saturday afternoon at Goodison Park.
Toffees boss Sean Dyche faces his old club in a vital six-pointer at the bottom end of the Premier League. Kick-off is set for 3pm UK time.
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Everton
Everton’s last victory in the league came in the reverse fixture, where they secured a 2-0 away victory in December. They have drawn six while lost seven of the 13 league fixtures which have taken place since.
Everton will be in high spirits after scoring a late equaliser against Newcastle in mid-week though. The match also saw striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin finally break his goal scoring drought of 23 games after he converted a high-pressure penalty in the 88th minute.
Dyche's side have acquired the majority of their wins on the road this season, with five of their eight wins coming on away soil. Unlike most seasons, Goodison Park has not been the ‘fortress’ it was once claimed to be.
The Toffees have failed to be proficient in front of goal this season, scoring just 31 goals in 30 games. At home, they create an expected goals (xG) of 1.69, which they have been underperforming by scoring an average of 1.07 goals.
The defensive partnership of James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite has been vital, with the Merseysiders conceding 1.29 goals on average at home compared an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.34.
Team news update ahead of Burnley...@wearfigs pic.twitter.com/hqtNqhZl8n
— Everton (@Everton) April 4, 2024
Burnley
Vincent Kompany’s side are currently unbeaten in their last four matches, which has seen them overcome Sheffield United and gain important draws on the road.
In their last away game against Chelsea, the Clarets produced a huge performance which saw them come from behind twice to draw at Stamford Bridge, despite being reduced to ten men in the 40th minute.
They also found themselves 2-0 up against West Ham United, before David Moyes’ men brought it back to level terms. Despite the final result, there have been signs of optimism for the Clarets in recent showings.
Like their opponents on Saturday, Burnley have struggled in front of goal. They've managed just 32 goals in 31 games, and have produced an underwhelming expected goals (xG) of just 0.97 away from home. While they have narrowly overperformed this by scoring an average of 1.07 goals, more will be required if they are to maintain their Premier League status beyond the end of the season.
Burnley also have the second-worst defensive record in the league, conceding 66 goals in 31 games with an overall goal difference of -34. They've also averaged an alarming two goals conceded in away fixtures.
Burnley have not managed to keep a clean sheet in their previous 14 games and are without a win in their previous 7 away matches.
Prediction
Despite Burnley's recent improvement in form, Everton rightly enter as slight favourites for this one. Though there is little value in backing the home side on the moneyline, we anticipate a low-scoring encounter due to both side's poor attacking output.