There’s only three rounds of EFL fixtures remaining in the 2024-25 campaign – the first of which takes place across a busy Easter Monday.
Our in-form tipster Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) has taken a look through the three divisions and plucked out four bets to round off the long weekend.
It would take more than one set of freakish results to see Preston sucked into the Championship’s relegation battle at the last minute – though North End are hardly doing their bit to avoid a nervy finish.
The Lancashire outfit improved significantly after Paul Heckingbottom’s August arrival but have won just one of their last 10 in all competitions, meaning they now find themselves only six points clear of the drop zone.
Here, they visit a Hull side in an even more precarious position, just two points ahead of 22nd-placed Luton coming into the final three matchdays.
If they were to fall to defeat here, Ruben Selles’ hosts could finish the day inside the bottom three, though their vastly superior goal difference over the Hatters means a point would prevent that fate (or delay it, at least).
I think this is two struggling sides meeting in a game with a lot of jeopardy, so my gut instinct tells me goals may not be on the menu in a vast quantity.
Hull are becoming quite familiar with a 1-0 scoreline, having been on either side of a solitary goal in four of their last five outings. They’ve only created a goal’s worth of xG in one of those, too.
Meanwhile, Preston games have been a little more open – though that is largely due to some mediocre defending from the Lilywhites, rather than their own attacking prowess.
But I don’t think Hull have the attacking threat of their recent opponents and, though neither side would admit it, a point probably suits both here. It would keep Hull’s safety in their own hands going into the last two games and it helps North End avoid being sucked into the mire themselves.
This could easily end up 0-0 (8/1, SkyBet) but the 11/5 about under 1.5 goals – keeping both 1-0 scorelines on side – makes more appeal from a punting perspective.
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— Gabriel Sutton (@GabSutton) April 17, 2025
Down in League One, one game that does scream goals is an absolute humdinger between play-off chasing Leyton Orient and relegation-threatened Cambridge.
Ritchie Wellens’ hosts have admirably bludgeoned their way back into a top-six spot with three games to go with three straight victories – all the more impressive given five straight defeats across late February and early March which seemed to have put a promising campaign to bed.
Meanwhile, Neil Harris’ hosts have pulled two crucial victories out of the bag in their last three outings to preserve a slim chance of an unlikely survival. They head into today’s round of matches five points behind Burton in the last safety spot.
It doesn’t take a genius to work out that a draw does neither team much good here and game state will surely dictate an end-to-end affair, particularly if there is an early goal.
Overs lines are being backed accordingly but I still see plenty of juice in the 5/2 available on over 3.5 goals in this crucial contest.
Orient have kept just two clean sheets in their last 14 outings but are now back in free-scoring mode, having found the net 10 times in their last three – most recently coming from 3-1 down to topple Barnsley 4-3 on Friday.
There’s also a case to be made for scattering a few pennies on some correct scores here. The 3-2 home win is 40/1 with Bet365, while the reverse scoreline is 25/1 with the same outlet.
If you’re feeling even more fanciful, the 4-3 home win is 200/1 at Betfair and a 4-3 away success is 160/1 with Unibet and BetMGM. It is silly season, after all!
Sinking without trace into the National League, League Two strugglers Carlisle needed a hero – and Irish centre forward Georgie Kelly has stepped up to the plate in some style.
The towering ex-Rotherham target man has had a terrible time of things since making the move to Cumbria 16 months ago, blighted by a string of injury issues which meant his return to their XI against Newport earlier this month marked only a second start of the campaign.
Kelly looks like a man intent on making up for lost time, though. He found the net twice in a 3-2 comeback win over Newport, providing the catalyst for what would be the most unlikely of great escapes.
He has since netted the opener in victories over Morecambe and league leaders Port Vale, with a range of finishes across that prolific spell showcasing a centre forward with quality far above the level when fit and firing.
And yet, Bet365 still have Kelly a 7/2 chance to net anytime in today’s do-or-die clash with fellow strugglers Accrington. This is, quite simply, the wrong price.
The stakes don’t get much bigger for both sides. If Accrington win, they mathematically secure their safety. If Carlisle win, combined with some other positive results, they will be within reach of safety (having been nine points adrift just over a fortnight ago).
With both in good form, it’s very tough to call a result but one thing we can categorically say is that Kelly remains the away side’s biggest goal threat by a country mile.
So, seeing him listed as the fifth-most likely scorer for Mark Hughes’ visitors is something punters should once again look to take advantage of.
Followers of my picks will know we have been on Kelly anytime for both of Carlisle’s last two clashes – producing 10/3 and 4/1 winners. Let’s hope for the hat-trick here.
Hull vs Preston under 1.5 goals - 11/5 (Bet365)
Cambridge vs Leyton Orient over 3.5 goals - 5/2 (Unibet)
Georgie Kelly anytime goalscorer in Carlisle vs Morecambe - 7/2 (Bet365)