Brighton vs Manchester City: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Manchester City look to return to the top of the Premier League when they travel to Brighton on Thursday evening.
An underwhelming 1-1 draw to relegation-threatened Burnley extended the hosts’ winless run to four games in the league, with the visiting league leaders proving another difficult encounter for Brighton in their quest for three points. City overcame Luton Town in a 5-1 home win in their most recent outing.
Pep Guardiola's men secured a 2-1 home win in the reverse fixture earlier in the season. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time at the Amex.
Recent Form
Brighton
Brighton have endured a torrid run of form of late. They have failed to win in their last four matches, with their most recent victory coming against Roma (1-0) in the Europa League. Draws to Brentford and Burnley, accompanied with 2-1 and 3-0 defeats to Liverpool and Arsenal respectively have left them in tenth.
Brighton’s results have been fluctuant and inconsistent over the course of the 2023/24 campaign, (W11, D11, L10), perhaps mirroring their mediocre position in the Premier League standings. However, European exploits and continual injury troubles have seemingly taken their toll on the Seagulls this season.
The Albion faithful will, however, be buoyed by Brighton’s superior form at home in comparison to their away encounters; an average of 1.8 points per game at the Amex, compared to only one on their travels, offers meagre encouragement for the home supporters on Thursday night.
Scoring goals hasn't been a problem for the Seagulls, with De Zerbi’s men scoring an impressive 1.87 goals per home match while boasting an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.82.
Albion have demonstrated their defensive capabilities at The Amex Stadium too, boasting an average xGA of 1.20 and conceding a commendable average of 1.27 goals per tie. However, Brighton have failed to keep a clean sheet in thirteen out of their fifteen affairs at The Amex, culminating in a subpar 13% clean sheet average, with both teams scoring in 80% of Brighton’s home encounters. This will undoubtedly incite Man City and their forwards ahead of Thursday night.
Manchester City
Guardiola and his Man City side have been flawless once again this campaign. City have not tasted defeat since a narrow 1-0 loss to Aston Villa on December 6, and have since navigated through seventeen domestic fixtures with unsurprising ease (W13, D4, L0).
A Champions League exit at the hands of Real Madrid has understandably dampened the mood at the Etihad, but their imperious league form and a 13th FA Cup final to look forward to certainly has opponents wary of their ridiculously high standards, yet again. The Citizens will be desperate for three points at The Amex as they continue their brawl with Arsenal and Liverpool for the Premier League title.
City’s ability to conquer opponents both on home soil and on their travels will rightfully intimidate Brighton; an average of 2.13 points in away games stands as the third-best record on the road in the division as they continue to hunt down a historic fourth consecutive Premier League title.
Guardiola's side have managed 2.2 goals across their away fixtures so far, failing to score in only 13% of these matches. Their shaky defensive record could give Brighton hope, though; only 20% of City's away games have ended in a clean sheet.
Prediction
City rightfully enter the contest as firm favourites on the moneyline (5/11), and have made habit of finding the net in both home and away fixtures. 53% of their matches on the road have seen them net three or more goals. Though they could be without talisman striker Erling Haaland again, we expect the blistering duo of Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva to carry them to three more vital points on Thursday.
40% of City's away games have also seen at least four goals scored in total, compared to 47% of Brighton's home matches. OddsNow anticipate plenty of goalscoring action in this one as the Premier League title races continues to heat up.