Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Stuart Pike

Second-placed Bayern Munich resume Bundesliga action following the international break, welcoming fellow Champions League quarter-finalists Borussia Dortmund in Der Klassiker. 

Kick-off at the Allianz Arena is at 5.30pm UK time on Saturday. 

Recent Form

Bayern Munich

Bolstered by eleven wins out of 13, Bayern’s 2.62 points per home game is only bettered by unbeaten runaway leaders Bayer Leverkusen. Werder Bremen’s 1-0 win in January is the only time Bayern have been shut out at their own ground in 70 league outings.

With 47 goals scored in front of their own fans at a rate of 3.62 per game, Thomas Tuchel’s side are comfortably the most prolific home scorers in the German top flight. That compares very favourably to an expected goal (xG) tally of 2.48, while their 0.69 goals conceded also outperforms their expected goals against (xGA) of 1.00.

Most of the pre-match intrigue surrounds talismanic striker Harry Kane, who was ruled out by an ankle knock during the international break - but completed an individual training session at his club on Monday. The England captain has scored or assisted 48.7% of Bayern’s 78 league goals, bagging one of his four Bundesliga trebles in a 4-0 victory in the reverse fixture.

An ever-present in the league, 31-goal Kane averages 1.54 goals per league match at the Allianz. Jamal Musiala (10) is his only team-mate into double figures, while Bayern suffered an embarrassing German Cup exit at third-tier Saarbrucken in one of only two games the star forward has missed.

Borussia Dortmund

Fourth-placed Dortmund are defending a perfect record in March, with four victories in all competitions. However, Edin Terzić’s side remain ten points adrift of their hosts and just one point clear of RB Leipzig, who they also visit next month. 

Only the top two have garnered more points per away game than the 1.85 of BVB, whose 2-1 defeat at Stuttgart in November remains their only loss on the road. Dortmund’s 13 goals conceded as a visiting side is comfortably the second-best record in the division - only bettered by Leverkusen’s eleven. Their performance of two goals scored and one goal conceded per away game outstrips their xG and xGA of 1.47 and 1.58, respectively.

BVB are without a league victory at Bayern in a decade and have picked up a solitary draw from their last eleven Der Klassikers - shipping 34 goals in the process. However, the defending champions’ romp at Signal Park Iduna in November was one of only two Bundesliga matches in 46 in which Dortmund have failed to score. 

Prediction

Despite lingering question marks over Harry Kane’s fitness, Bayern are odds-on favourites (4/9 with several outlets) to continue their dominance of this fixture.

OddsNow's Pick: Bayern Munich to win with BTTS (23/20 @ William Hill)

 

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