Atletico Madrid vs Girona: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Atletico Madrid look to close the gap on third-placed Girona at the Civitas Metropolitano Stadium on Saturday.
The hosts come into the game fourth, five points behind their opponents after 30 matches played in the Spanish top-flight. Girona won a 4-3 thriller in the reverse fixture back in January. Kick-off is set for 1pm UK time in the Spanish capital this weekend.
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Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone's side have excelled on home soil in La Liga this term, averaging 2.67 points per game at the Metropolitano. They've won 13 of their 15 home matches there, giving them the second best home record in the division, behind leaders Real Madrid. Their away form pales in comparison, with Atletico averaging a measly 1.2 points per away fixture so far.
They did suffer their first home defeat of the season recently though, losing 3-0 to second-placed Barcelona last month. Atletico have since rebounded with a hard-earned 2-1 away victory against Villarreal.
The home side have bagged an average of 2.7 goals at home this term, exceeding their expected goals (xG) tally of 1.67. They've failed to find the net in just 7% of home matches in the league, and have scored two or more in an impressive 80% of these games.
An average of 1.07 goals conceded at home will be a slight concern for Simeone though, whose side has kept clean sheets in just 27% of home fixtures so far. They've only shipped two or more in 20% of these games, however.
Girona
Girona have been La Liga's surprise package this term and look set to secure Champions League football for the first time in the club's 94-year history. While their 1.8 points per away game isn't terrible, they have suffered four consecutive defeats on the road, hardly ample preparation when facing the second-best home side in the division. Three of those four have also seen them fail to score a single goal.
Nevertheless, attacking output has been sound across the season, with an average of 1.6 goals scored in away fixtures. They have failed to score in 27% though, a figure which has no doubt surged in recent weeks, but they've found the net two or more times in 47%.
In defensive quarters, Girona have shipped an average of 1.33 goals per away match, registering a clean sheet in just 20% of these games.
Prediction
Despite the recent defeat to Barcelona, Atletico have been near faultless on home soil so far. Coupled with Girona's poor recent form in away games, the home side are the sensible pick in this one.
Expect plenty of goals too, with the Metropolitano averaging 3.03 in total across 15 outings this term.