Arsenal vs Chelsea: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Aaron Nijjar

Title-chasing Arsenal host an inconsistent Chelsea side at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday evening. 

The hosts know one more slip could all but end their Premier League title aspirations. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time. 

Recent Form 

Arsenal

Mikel Arteta's side come into the game back in first place following a 2-0 win at Wolves on Saturday, level with second-placed Liverpool on 74 points who also secured three points the next day. Both sides have played one game more than third-placed Manchester City though, who trail a point behind in third.

A win against Chelsea will see Arsenal move three ahead of Liverpool, who face Everton the following day. City don't play until Thursday, when they travel to Brighton.

The Gunners boast the third-best home record in the league, where they've averaged 2.38 points per game across their 16 outings so far. Their most recent home outing saw them suffer a crushing 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa though, which severely dented their title aspirations heading into the final stretch of the campaign. 

Nevertheless, their form at home has been overall impressive. Goals have been aplenty for Arteta's men, who have scored an average of 2.38 in home matches so far. This has exceeded an already impressive expected goals (xG) tally of 1.98. 

Arsenal have also conceded the least amount of goals in the league so far (26), including an average of just 0.94 per home game. Creating chances has been a problem for opposition teams at the Emirates, with Arsenal averaging a sublime expected goals against (xGA) tally of just 0.87 this season.

Chelsea

Mauricio Pochettino's side have struggled for consistency so far but now find themselves in the top half of the table with seven matches remaining of the season. Their FA Cup semi-final loss to Manchester on Saturday typified Chelsea's season so far, with the Blues squandering a host of chances before eventually conceding a scrappy Bernardo Silva goal. 

Their away form has held them back this season, with Chelsea averaging only 1.27 points in away fixtures compared to 1.75 at home. They've also drawn their last three matches on the road, including a damaging 2-2 draw at bottom side Sheffield United earlier this month.

Pochettino's men have shown they can be a handful for any side in the league on their day, taking points from Manchester City both home and away in the league, while also drawing at home to both Liverpool and Arsenal earlier in the season. 

A key cog has been top-scorer Cole Palmer though, who is likely to miss the trip to the Emirates through illness. Palmer has already bagged 20 goals and 9 assists this season, and his absence will no doubt be felt. Without him, Chelsea look pretty toothless, amplified by Nicolas Jackson's inability to find the back of the net in Saturday's match at Wembley. 

Prediction

Though Chelsea have no doubt improved throughout the season, and can take heart from their performance against City at the weekend, the loss of Palmer makes it difficult to see the away side leaving with anything on Tuesday evening. 

Arsenal rightly enter as firm favourites (13/25) and their attacking output on home turf has been sublime; 81% of their home fixtures have seen them score two or more, while 38% have seen them bag at least three. Chelsea, meanwhile, have shipped at least two goals in 60% of away matches and have averaged a worrying 1.57 expected goals against (xGA) on the road. The two sides also played out a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture earlier this season. With all this in mind, OddsNow expect plenty of goalscoring action once again in this one. 

OddsNow's Pick: Over 3.5+ goals scored (13/10 @ bet365)

 

 

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