AC Milan vs Roma: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Two Italian giants collide when AC Milan host Roma in the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals first leg on Thursday evening.
The two sides meet three months on from their last outing in Serie A, which saw Milan run out 3-1 home winners at the San Siro. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time.
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AC Milan
The home side enter the game following eight consecutive victories in all competitions, including a 3-0 home win over Lecce last time out. The result leaves Milan in a strong position in Serie A where they currently occupy second position, 15 points behind rivals Inter.
Though a 20th league title is likely out of reach, Milan will look to further enhance their European pedigree with success in the Europa League this term. They entered the competition after finishing third in the Champions League's 'Group of Death', and reached the quarter-finals with a 5-3 aggregate victory over Rennes. They did suffer a 3-2 defeat in France during the second leg though, which was the last time they lost in all competitions.
Milan have been near faultless at home in Serie A, averaging 2.33 points per game across 15 outings so far. However, their home form in Europe has not been quite as impressive; they averaged just 1.33 points from their three Champions League home games this term (W1, D1, L1). They did secure a 3-0 home victory over Rennes in the Europa League RO16 last time out, though.
Their impressive goalscoring form in the league has also failed to carry over into Europe; an average of 1.94 goals scored in Serie A compares to a paltry 0.83 in their Champions League fixtures, though they did face tough opposition in PSG, Borussia Dortmund and Newcastle United in those matches.
Milan have excelled in defensive quarters, conceding an average of 1.1 goals per league game, with this figure dropping to just 0.53 in home matches. Yet again, this hasn't been the case in Europe, where they shipped an average of 1.33 in the Champions League. They will take hope from the clean sheet against Rennes in February, nevertheless.
Quarter-finals 🔜😍#UEL pic.twitter.com/JpAOotGnHX
— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) April 8, 2024
Roma
Daniele De Rossi's side head to the San Siro on the back of three consecutive clean sheets in Serie A, including a 1-0 home victory over rivals Lazio last time out. Their last defeat came in the Europa League RO16 second leg away at Brighton (1-0), where they already boasted a 4-0 lead courtesy of their exploits in the Italian capital the previous week.
Roma have struggled on the road compared to at home. Despite averaging 2.25 points per game in home matches, they've managed just 1.27 in away league games. Their performance at both ends of the pitch has also dropped off on their travels in domestic fixtures.
This has also been the case in Europe; an average of 2.6 points per home game compares with just one in away games, where they've won just once in five outings this term.
While Roma have been solid at the back, conceding 1.2 per away game in Europe, their goalscoring form has been woeful. An average of 0.8 goals scored on the road would leave any team struggling, and two of their five away matches have seen them fail to score a goal.
Their progress has been hindered further by their inability to keep opposition out, with De Rossi's men still yet to keep a clean sheet away in Europe.
🐺#UEL pic.twitter.com/yHkoVWMpFg
— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) April 8, 2024
Prediction
Neither side have been convincing in European competition, but Milan have faced much better opposition compared to their Italian counterparts heading into this one. Their placing in the 'Group of Death' makes it hard to place great emphasis on their struggles in the Champions League, with the two sides who topped that particular group still competing in that competition.
Therefore, the home side remain the sensible pick in this one. Roma have been terrible on the road in the Europa League, and have already lost twice to Milan home and away in Serie A this season. Those two fixtures saw a combined seven goals in total, with OddsNow anticipating more goalscoring action in this one.