World Grand Prix 2024: Round One debrief, new outright pick and Wednesday tips

Our darts tipster Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) takes a closer look at the World Grand Prix's outright betting market after a host of big names exited at the first hurdle in Leicester.

As well as making a case for a 25/1 chance, he runs through all four of Wednesday's round two clashes and puts up a best bet for each one.

The World Grand Prix continues to preserve its reputation as one of the most brutal majors around when it comes to first round upsets.

The unique double-in start, combined with an extremely short format, makes the opening two days a favourite’s worst nightmare and sure enough, seven of the 16 round one ties have seen the betting underdog emerge victorious.

Those results could have been even more dramatic too, given the two new betting favourites, Luke Humphries and Gary Anderson, both survived match darts in their opening clashes.

As a result, this year’s tournament is there for the taking. Before we start taking a look at Wednesday’s four second round matches, let’s cast an eye over the outright market.

World Grand Prix outright betting — Humphries into hot favourite

Defending champ Humphries is now a best-priced 9/4 to retain his title, which seemed a stretch when Stephen Bunting was missing a dart at bullseye to send him packing without winning a single leg.

But Humphries has that true grit of a champion and once he got himself level at one set apiece, the outcome was inevitable. He’ll be a tough man to get rid of, particularly as the format increases in length.

Coming in next at 5/1 is two-time world champion Anderson, who was even closer to the exit door when Michael Smith put two match darts at D20 on the wire. The Scot was grateful for his second chance and effortlessly checked out 49 in two darts to book his spot in the last 16.

Anderson has been the best player in the world on the floor this year and has told Darts Now that is where he is happiest playing, although there is no doubt he would desperately love to lift a first TV major in six years this Sunday.

Gerwyn Price was unconvincing in his round one defeat of Danny Noppert but the Ice Man has made at least the semi-finals here in each of the previous four years.

You do need some luck in this tournament and if he can kick on through a tricky last-16 tie with James Wade, quotes of 9/1 may suddenly have a generous look to them.

Rob Cross warmed to the task in defeating pre-tournament favourite Luke Littler, having started sluggishly but by the end of that contest, Voltage had found his spark.

His double 18 hitting was a joy to behold and though this format has not treated him well in previous years, bookies are keen to keep him on side at a best price of 10/1.

If you are able to overlook Dave Chisnall’s major record (and that’s a big leap), the 12/1 about him looks a tasty price indeed.

The St Helens star is in as good nick as anyone and beat Cameron Menzies without dropping a leg on Tuesday. In a quarter where Michael van Gerwen and Chris Dobey have both exited, Chizzy looks poised to take advantage with a run to at least the semi-finals.

Ross Smith (16/1 best) put in the best performance of the round in beating Gian van Veen, while Nathan Aspinall (18/1) quelled fears over his injury woes with a typically ballsy last-leg win over Ryan Searle.

Both will have their suitors and of the two, you’d have to say the Asp’s draw looks slightly kinder.

Then we reach four steady performers all sitting at the 25/1 mark.

James Wade was my outright selection at 80/1 and you couldn’t help but be happy with the way he disposed of Peter Wright — keeping his composure despite losing a tight first set.

Wade faces his good friend Price in round two and though the Welshman has the better of their recent head-to-head record, the Machine won their only previous 2024 clash 6-4 on the Euro Tour and really is in sumptuous form.

Jonny Clayton, Martin Schindler and Dimitri Van den Bergh are also priced at 25/1 and I must say, Clayton is the one I feel the current market overlooks the most.

The Ferret was really, really solid against Richie Edhouse in his opener and having won this title before, has that all-important comfort with the format.

He looks like a man content with where his game is at and also someone with a point to prove. I’ve taken a bit of the current price as it just feels a smidgen too big.

You’d be hard pressed to say the remaining five players can win the title, though never say never.

Daryl Gurney (28/1) was brilliant against MVG and lifted this trophy seven years ago, yet his PDC title drought is significant.  Joe Cullen (33/1) typically found his best performance in months to dump out my outright fancy Dobey but I still worry about the Rockstar’s patchy play against the elite operators.

Finally, Mike De Decker (40/1), Ryan Joyce (50/1) and Ricardo Pietreczko (80/1) were all good value for their first round upsets but lack the pedigree in this sphere to appeal as outright propositions.

Of the trio, you’d probably give Joyce the best chance of going any further though he’ll have to find another gear from the performance which downed an out-of-sorts Josh Rock on Monday.

World Grand Prix second round predictions and best bets — October 9, 2024

Nathan Aspinall vs Ryan Joyce

Despite being two of the most regular faces on the PDC circuit, this pair have only met once in the last four years — a floor clash which went narrowly the way of Aspinall.

Joyce did exactly what I thought he may do by disposing of the well-fancied Rock in round one. The Geordie is a master of the outer ring and impressed on his only previous Grand Prix appearance back in 2020.

Aspinall showed so much guts and spirit to sneak past Searle, hitting seven perfect darts in the deciding leg to help fashion a stunning break of throw.

The 2023 World Matchplay champ is a 4/6 favourite to make the quarter-finals with Joyce out at a best-priced 11/8, which feels about right to me.

I don’t like backing an amount of 180s in this format due to the chaos double start wreaks. However, I’m still happy to side with a player to outperform their opponent on the maximums.

Over the course of both the last 12 months and the last three months, Aspinall averages narrowly more 180s per leg than Joyce (0.25 vs 0.22) — and that’s in a period where he’s been far from his best.

Therefore, quotes of 17/10 about Aspinall to win the match and hit the most 180s look worth taking.

I think he grinds it out 3-1 or 3-2 but Joyce should make him work for it.

Prediction: Aspinall 3-1 Joyce

Rob Cross vs Martin Schindler

Having played the role of spoiler and underdog against Littler, Cross now has to deal with the pressure of favouritism against an in-form Schindler.

I really fancied Voltage in round one because he’d been written off by most, so it felt like a free hit — something always dangerous for a player of his calibre.

Yet I’m not as sold on his chances here, bizarrely. His opponent is in a brilliant state of mind and will be relishing the prospect of a second Grand Prix quarter-final in as many years.

The Wall has always been ultra-talented but now has the big-game mindset to match and the way he disposed of Brendan Dolan in his opener was testament to that new-found big stage confidence.

While Cross had some very good moments against Littler, there were also some sluggish legs and the fact that was his first ever average above 90 in this format shows you he doesn’t exactly relish the event.

All told, I have to back Schindler at 11/8 because I feel this will be very close.

Prediction: Cross 2-3 Schindler

Luke Humphries vs Ricardo Pietreczko

Having dodged a major Bullet in round one, Humphries suddenly has that air of invincibility about him again and it’s hard to see him slipping up against Pikachu.

These two memorably met at Alexandra Palace just under a year ago, when the German had Cool Hand on the ropes at 3-1 up in sets, before the soon-to-be champion roared back to win 4-3.

It was a clash Humphries described as “mentally and physically the toughest game I’ve ever been a part of” but yet he came out on top — a clash which typifies why the 29-year-old is simply the best around right now.

Pietreczko’s experiences on the big stage in England have generally been negative up until now, which must’ve made him enjoy Monday’s win over Raymond van Barneveld that little bit more.

Having battled through a recent injury problem, it feels like the German scaled his mountain firstly by reaching Leicester, then overcoming Barney. I’d question whether he has it in him to beat a bullish Humphries right now.

For me, this looks the most straightforward tie of the night and William Hill’s quote of 6/4 on a 3-0 win for Humphries looks fair.

Prediction: Humphries 3-0 Pietreczko

Jonny Clayton vs Ross Smith

A great clash to finish between two men who weren’t talked up coming into this tournament but both caught the eye in their openers.

Clayton, who I have already confessed to having a little in-play wager on at 25/1 outright, is getting back somewhere close to his ruthlessly dependable best — a level which won him a pile of TV titles not that long ago.

The Welshman made no bones that his poor recent form correlated with the loss of his father last year but he has now stated he has the “fire back in his belly”, which can only be a good thing for the sport.

Smith caught me off-guard in round one. He’s been struggling the last few weeks to find his usual groove but everything went right against Van Veen, posting a lesser-spotted ton-plus Grand Prix average.

All the above points to a mouth-watering clash to end the night and while I may be opening myself up to more Smudger-related pain, quotes of 6/5 about the Ferret are too good for me to resist.

Prediction: Clayton 3-1 Smith

Matt Hill's best World Grand Prix bets for Wednesday, October 9

- Nathan Aspinall win and most 180s vs Ryan Joyce - 11/8 (Betfair)

- Martin Schindler to beat Rob Cross - 11/8 (AK Bets)

- Luke Humphries -2.5 sets (i.e. to win 3-0) vs Ricardo Pietreczko - 6/4 (William Hill)

- Jonny Clayton to beat Ross Smith -6/5 (Sporting Index)

- Four-fold acca - 28/1 (BoyleSports)