PDC World Championship: Friday preview and best bets

Christmas is done and dusted for another year and after a Boxing Day feast of sport yesterday, the darts action recommences at the Ally Pally.

Our darts tipster Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) is feeling refreshed after his festive break and has wasted no time getting stuck into today's round three ties — with plenty of tips to boot.

PDC World Championship 2025 betting tips

Damon Heta vs Luke Woodhouse

The third round kicks off with one of its most intriguing ties as Aussie number one Damon Heta takes on Luke Woodhouse, who has already caused one significant upset by dumping out World Grand Prix champion Mike De Decker before Christmas.

Heta could hardly have had a worse round two draw to overcome than when pulled to face his good friend and practice partner Connor Scutt. Yet after losing the first set, the Heat only dropped two more legs en route to a 3-1 victory, despite his opponent’s average never dropping below 98.

That tells you all you need to know about this classy operator, who is for my money the best floor player around right now. 

He was only pipped to the No1 seeding at the Players Championship Finals by the equally prolific Chris Dobey, showing what a consistently top-class performer he has been across 30 Pro Tour events this term.

It is often levelled at Heta that he fails to replicate that best game on the big TV stage but while that was probably a fair comment up until two years ago, I think he’s overcome that issue now.

Take a closer look at his TV efforts this year. First round exits in the World Matchplay, World Grand Prix and PC Finals may look underwhelming on the surface but all came despite quality performances, usually bumping into an inspired opponent. 

At Blackpool, his 100+ average was simply outdone by a brilliant Ryan Searle, while the latter two exits both came in last-leg deciders to class acts in De Decker and world champ Luke Humphries.

Meanwhile, at the UK Open, Heta won arguably the match of the year when beating Luke Littler 10-8 with a 106 average en route to the semi-finals, where he was undone by the slow-motion efforts of Dimitri Van den Bergh. 

That outstanding run was a far stronger indication of where he is at with his TV game now, for me. I deem him a genuine contender for this title and expect to see him face Humphries in the last eight.

That isn’t to say that Woodhouse, who has made significant progress himself in the last 12 months, can’t give the favourite something to think about today.

Woody was, for a long time, a player who frustrated me. He seemed to have the attitude of the world being against him when he lost and increasingly looked like someone who didn’t have the mental fortitude to convert his undoubted ability into success.

But something has finally clicked for the Bewdley-born star, who topped off an impressive year with a run to the European Championship semi-finals in October. 

I expect to see a big 2025 from Woodhouse but this contest does feel like a bridge too far for him at the moment. 

De Decker assisted his own downfall in round two with a very sluggish start and there’s no scenario where I see Heta dipping anywhere near the Belgian’s 87 average here.

I’m backing Heta to hit the most 180s and cover the -1.5 set handicap (i.e. win 4-2 or better) at what feels a generous 13/8 with Bet365.

Best bet - Damon Heta -1.5 sets and most 180s - 13/8 (Bet365)

Jonny Clayton vs Daryl Gurney

Jonny Clayton and Daryl Gurney will be relieved to have made it beyond Christmas, given the duo were pressed all the way by their unseeded opponents in round two.

Clayton needed a sudden death leg to repel the stubborn Mickey Mansell and while Gurney managed to polish his final set off a little quicker, he was also a leg away from the exit door at the back-end of set four.

But I always feel there’s nothing wrong with a stern test early on in a campaign and you’d think both players will have blown off ample cobwebs to make this a high-quality contest. 

Two veterans of the sport, Clayton and Gurney have made the last eight at Ally Pally without progressing any further and while neither of them are considered leading contenders for glory this year, they are dangerous men to discount lightly — particularly given the draw.

Every player in quarter three must sense a huge opportunity with the likes of Humphries, Van Gerwen and Littler stationed elsewhere and the section’s top seed, Michael Smith, disposed of already by Kevin Doets.

Heading into this one, Clayton and Gurney are priced at 7/1 and 9/1 respectively to prevail through their section, below Gerywn Price (3/1), Chris Dobey (7/2) and Josh Rock (9/2), with the latter pair facing each other tomorrow. 

Followers of my ante-post thoughts will know I put Clayton up as my favourite outside bet in the outright market and my thoughts have not really budged, despite that close shave with Mansell. 

The Ferret was absolutely mustard in that final set, averaging 98 despite being just 6/15 on the outer ring. That tells us his scoring phase was closer to the 110 average mark — not bad for a man many say is “out of form”.

Circumstance makes that even more impressive, given he found himself 2-0 down in the decider after Mansell plucked out marvellous 136 and 154 finishes in consecutive legs. 

That could’ve been a telling mental blow to many a player, yet Clayton didn’t blink, producing a five-visit and two four-visit legs to recover the situation in blistering fashion.

Gurney caught the eye himself in disposing of a stubborn Hempel, keeping his cool in the eye of a German storm to prevail with a strong burst to the finishing line.

You could argue his match average of 98 makes him worthy of favouritism here, yet the market wants to side with Clayton. Perhaps that is because they share the same niggles I do about Gurney’s consistency and reliability in 2024.

So often, Super Chin has put in a performance to make you really sit up and take note. Usually, it’s followed up by something underwhelming.

I’ll be cheering Clayton here for my outright and quarter positions but it’s not a game I want to have a further wager in. A watching brief is advised.

Best bet - No Bet

Stephen Bunting vs Madars Razma

The people’s champion Stephen Bunting was made to sweat in his opener with Kai Gotthardt but did eventually warm to the task — and I’m expecting him to do a bit of a job on Madars Razma here.

The Bullet cut a relieved figure after seeing off his German opponent 3-1, having survived three darts at double eight to go 0-2 behind.

It felt a pivotal moment at the time and so it quickly proved, with the Scouser powering towards something near his best in the remaining two sets as his less experienced opponent wilted away tamely.

Bunting may have expected to face Dirk van Dujivenbode at this stage but he was put away by the awkward and often underrated Razma, who also triumphed by a 3-1 scoreline.

The Latvian, who is best known for his love affair with treble 19, had to hold onto his opponent's coat tails early on but did so admirably, holding his nerve to level things when winning a tight second set.

Beyond that point, Van Duijvenbode was bizzarely flat and you'd have to say he threw the contest away more than Razma won it. After all, Dirk averaged 112 in the opening set but an abysmal 78 in both the third and fourth stanzas. 

All credit to Razma for reaching the third round for the first time. However, he may just feel the pinch of the situation here against Bunting, who will have a huge backing and has his sights set on at least a quarter-final berth.

I'd imagine that close shave with Gotthardt will only have sharpened the Bullet's focus and I'd expect to see him burst out of the blocks. It makes the 6/5 available on him winning with a -2.5 set handicap (i.e. by a 4-1 or 4-0 scoreline) of huge appeal.

I'll also chance a point on the 4-0 correct score at 7/2.  That one is admittedly more price-based, because I simply cannot accept there is only a 22% chance of this contest finishing in a Bunting whitewash.

If he does improve from his opening outing, as I'm expecting, Razma is going to need to find another gear to make it competitive and that is far from a guarantee in effectively the biggest game of the Latvian's career.

On a selfish note, I'm hoping to see a last-16 clash between Bunting and Heta as I think that could be an absolute cracker of a contest. We shall see!

Best bet - Stephen Bunting -2.5 sets @ 6/5 Betfair

Gerwyn Price vs Joe Cullen

Gerywn Price breezed past Keane Barry in his opening clash but that was largely down to some extreme profligacy from the young Irishman on his doubles.

On a real positive note, Price was very much up for the fight, describing the contest afterwards as one he “wanted to win as much as any in his career”. Love him or hate him, seeing those big reactions and fist pumps back in full force is good for darts.

That said, the scoreline probably flatters what was only a 91 average, with one solitary 180 hit and a steady 9/24 (37.5%) on the outer ring making up for some lacklustre scoring. 

Barry was an abysmal 2/24 (8%) in the finishing phase, so you have to have serious questions as to the strength of the form.

At least Price’s scoring was rock solid, with a first nine darts average of 103 not near the dizzy heights the Welshman can scale when on top form but equally, a high enough level to help him stay competitive with almost anyone.

His opponent here, Joe Cullen, was sublime in dispatching Wessel Nijman 3-0, with the former Premier League runner-up using the fact he’d been written off by many as fuel to down the young Dutchman in a high-class contest.

Posting a 98 average over 13 legs, this was the best we’ve seen from Cullen for a long time though I found his demeanour in both his post-match interview and press conference (which he exited prematurely) quite bizarre — particularly given the man himself has constantly admitted how badly out of form he’s been for most of 2024.

Whatever works for him though, I guess. Like Price, Cullen is often at his best when fired up, so you’d hope both will carry that anger into this latest contest.

Cullen plundered in eight 180s against Nijman, which was crucial in keeping the pressure on his high-scoring opponent. A first-9 average of 106 was enough to carve out 22 darts at double, of which he hit nine (40%, a ratio almost identical to Price).

There’s some uncertainty in the 180s market here as a result. Price outperformed Cullen comfortably over the year in maximums per leg (0.31 vs 0.25) but Cullen plundered in seven more in his opening Ally Pally clash than the Ice Man. Cullen has subsequently been backed in from an opening 5/4 into EVS in most places.

I think Price will have shed a few nerves with that opening win and I expect him to raise his game here, particularly on the lipstick. Meanwhile, Cullen is a master of 180 hitting in these types of games. He hit 19 in his two best-of-seven clashes last year against Ryan Searle and Luke Humphries respectively..

The market is moving towards the unders lines on maximums but I have to disagree. I see this one catching fire and a one-point win on over 14.5 maximums looks in order at a juicy 9/5 with vBet.

Best bet - Over 14.5 180s - 9/5 (vBet)

Peter Wright vs Jermaine Wattimena

Peter Wright came into his opening contest with Challenge Tour star Wesley Plaisier as a narrow underdog after a rotten 2024 but was able to declare that “class is permanent” after overcoming the promising Dutchman 3-1.

It certainly wasn’t vintage Snakebite on show but you have to admire the way the veteran is battling through his form struggles, producing some flashes of quality at key moments during that contest.

Still, the market wasn’t overly impressed by those efforts, and the two-time world champion finds himself a chunky 23/10 outsider against the in-form Jermaine Wattimena tonight.

It’s been an incredible few months for the man known as the Machine Gun, making good on some promising floor performances by reaching the European Championship final in October, where he was eventually well beaten by Ritchie Edhouse.

That run included a stunning defeat of Luke Humphries, while the rapid Dutch thrower has also taken enough scalps in subsequent tournaments to suggest he has progressed, rather than just being somebody on a hot streak.

The way he took care of James Wade last time out was ruthless, yet I do feel he still has that unpredictable element to his game at times.

In both the Grand Slam and Players Championship Finals, the games which saw him exit the tournament were accompanied by modest averages in the low 90s. Though there is no shame in that, it does make him hard to back at short prices with confidence.

It is Wattimena’s somewhat erratic streak, combined with Wright’s ability to battle through his rough patches in big tournaments, which make me want to side with the outsider — perhaps not to win, but certainly to compete.

Backing over 5.5 sets, which requires both players to win at least two, seems a logical way of doing this and I’m also going to add in Wright to plunder in a few maximums.

He managed four 180s in four sets against Plaisier so a similar ratio in a longer contest will see this line covered.

The two picks combine for a 2/1 selection on the Bet365 Bet Builder tool, which I really like the look of.

Best bet - Over 5.5 sets and Peter Wright over 5.5 180s - 2/1 (Bet365)

Luke Humphries vs Nick Kenny 

Best bet - Luke Humphries 4-1 Nick Kenny correct score - 13/5 (Quinn Bet)

Matt Hill's best PDC World Championship darts bets for Friday December 27, 2024

• 2pts- Damon Heta -1.5 sets and most 180 vs Luke Woodhouse - 13/8 (Bet365)
• 2pts - Stephen Bunting -2.5 sets vs Madars Razma - 6/5 (Betfair)
• 1pt - Stephen Bunting 4-0 Madars Razma correct score - 7/2 (Befair)
•  1pt - Gerwyn Price vs Joe Cullen over 14.5 180s - 9/5 (vBet)
•  2pts - Over 5.5 sets and Peter Wright over 5.5 180s vs Jermaine Wattimena  - 2/1 (Bet365)
•  1pt - Luke Humphries 4-1 Nick Kenny correct score - 13/5 (Quinn Bet)