Tyson Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Boxing will finally crown its first undisputed heavyweight champion in 25 years when Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Saturday.
The pair were initially set to meet back in February before a Fury cut sustained in sparring forced the bout to be pushed back. With the boxing world split, we take a closer look at the betting lines here to see where the most value can be found.
Tale of the Tape
Fury (34-0-1, 24KOs) is the naturally bigger fighter of the two. Standing at 6”9 and boasting a monstrous 85 inch reach, the Briton has campaigned at heavyweight for the entirety of his career.
The 35-year-old is also the most accomplished of the two, at least in this division, having won titles at English, Irish, British, Commonwealth, European and world level. His upsetting of Wladimir Klitschko in 2015 saw him capture the WBA, WBO, IBF and Ring Magazine titles, before he took time away from the sport due to personal struggles.
He has since rebounded to win the WBC heavyweight title, completing his collection with a seventh-round demolition of Deontay Wilder in February, 2022. Fury has subsequently defeated the American for a second time, rounding off their historic trilogy, before also defending against fellow Brits Dillian Whyte and Derek Chisora.
A stunning performance against former UFC champion and boxing debutant Francis Ngannou threatened to hand ‘The Gypsy King’ his first professional defeat last October, but Fury picked himself off the canvas to eventually earn a narrow split-decision win in Riyadh. His WBC title was not on the line.
Though he has won all of the major sanctioning body belts, he has never held them all at the same time, but that would change with victory over Usyk this weekend. He is also bidding to become only the second heavyweight, alongside Muhammad Ali, to win the Ring Magazine title on three separate occasions.
Meanwhile, Usyk (21-0, 14KOs) is looking to become only the third male fighter to become undisputed in two separate weight divisions.
The Ukrainian has already collected all major belts down at cruiserweight, picking up impressive victories over the likes of Krzysztof Glowacki, Michael Hunter, Marco Huck, Mairis Briedis, Murat Gassiev and Tony Bellew in the process. The fact he defeated all of these fighters in their own backyards only enhances his pound-for-pound status even further.
The now 37-year-old then set his sights on the heavyweight scene, and entered the division with wins over Chazz Witherspoon (TKO7) and Derek Chisora (UD12).
It wasn’t until Usyk secured back-to-back victories over former unified champion Anthony Joshua in 2021 and 2022 that he fully announced his arrival among the sport’s premier division, though. Despite being the smaller fighter of the two, his superb footwork and fleeting hand-speed proved too much for ‘AJ’ on both occasions.
Usyk also secured a seventh-round stoppage of Daniel Dubois in August last year to make his second defence of the WBA, WBO, IBF and Ring Magazine titles he picked up against Joshua.
Prediction
The boxing world has been divided on how this one will pan out ever since the fight was announced, and that is reflected in the betting odds. Both come in at in-and-around even money on the moneyline. Fury enters as a narrow favourite (evens), while Usyk is a slight underdog (11/10).
While only focusing on the size difference would leave us in danger of oversimplifying a magnificent fight, it’s hard to ignore the bigger frame of Fury and how he has used it to his advantage in the past.
His superior reach left Dillian Whyte and Derek Chisora at the end of his jab all night when they met in 2022, and his use of the clinch to ragdoll and drain the tank of Deontay Wilder in their second and third meetings was a key factor in how those fights ended.
Unlike Joshua, who Usyk beat twice to claim his unified titles, Fury possesses an outstanding ring IQ and understanding of how to use his bigger frame to his advantage. Joshua failed to make the most of his physical advantage against Usyk, neglected the jab and didn’t make the most of their coming together on the inside. Usyk was allowed to build a rhythm and drift in-and-out to outbox and outfox the Briton, whose own technical ability paled in comparison to the Ukrainian’s.
Above: Check out our full breakdown of Fury vs Usyk on our YouTube channel.
Fury, as well as his advantage in size, also possesses superb technical ability himself, and his ability to glide around the ring in his 6”9 frame is something to be marvelled at.
He is also an excellent body-puncher, and Usyk has shown vulnerability to his torso in the past. Briedis and Joshua both hurt him with hooks to the body in their fights, and the Ukrainian was badly rocked by a borderline shot in his fight with Dubois. Though the referee ruled the shot an illegal blow, and afforded Usyk over two minutes to recover, his susceptibility to the body will surely be an area Fury looks to exploit across the 12 rounds.
Nevertheless, due to the even spread on the moneyline, backing a Fury win outright is the most sensible pick here. A stoppage win isn’t out of the question, particularly because of Usyk’s vulnerability to the body, but the Ukrainian showed great heart against Dubois despite still feeling the impact of the wayward blow, and will likely expect Fury to test his resistance with shots south of the border.