Dustin Poirier vs Benoit Saint-Denis: Betting Odds & Prediction

UFC veteran Dustin Poirier is set to take on Benoit Saint-Denis in the lightweight division in the UFC 299 co-main event on Saturday. The fight will have heavy implications on the lightweight division with Saint-Denis looking to break into the UFC top five at 155lbs. 

The main card is stacked with talent and is headlined by UFC Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley, who defends for the first time in a rematch with Chito Vera.

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In his last outing, Poirier suffered a second round KO defeat to Justin Gaethje via head kick at UFC 291. The loss has set Poirier back in the division, with a number of contenders now jumping ahead of him in the title picture. In the fight before the Gaethje loss, Poirier displayed his high level Brazilian Jiu-jitsu against Micheal Chandler in November 2022. Poirier won via submission in a fight of the year contender.

The Louisiana man has been a mainstay in the top five of the lightweight division for over half a decade, winning the interim title against Max Holloway in 2019 and fighting for the full title twice. Whilst those two fights ended as losses against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira, Poirier still boasts wins over big names such as  Conor McGregor (twice), Eddie Alvarez and the aforementioned Gaethje.

Poirier mixes beautiful striking with high level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and will be dangerous wherever this fight goes. With 52% of his wins coming by KO, and a further 24% by submission, Poirier has a number of routes to victory. 

France's Saint-Denis has been touted as a future champion by many. The Frenchman has only been training MMA for seven years but has already displayed high level striking and grappling. His last outing in November 2023 saw him defeat Matt Frevola via first-round head kick. In July of last year, he displayed elite grappling skills when he submitted Ismael Bonfim in the first round.

Since his move to the lightweight division, the ‘God of War’ has amassed five straight wins and knows a win against number three ranked Poirier sets up a potential title-eliminator bout. All 13 of Saint-Denis’ wins in MMA have come via finish, with four of those coming by KO and nine of those coming via submission. Like Poirier, Saint-Denis is a well-rounded fighter, and has a number of avenues to explore on the way to getting his hand raised this weekend. 

Betting Odds

Poirier comes into this fight as underdog, with Betway pricing him at 37/20 outright (an implied probability of 35.1%). Meanwhile William Hill have Saint-Denis at 1/2 (implied probability of of 66.7%).

PaddyPower have this fight to not go the distance at 1/5 (implied probability of 83.3%), whilst Bet365 price the fight to go the distance at 7/2 (implied probability of 22.2%).

Prediction

OddsNow back Poirier to return to winning ways on the moneyline. 

OddsNow's Pick: Poirier to win outright (37/20 @ Betway)