Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis 2: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Mark McLaughlin

Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis are set to face-off in the middleweight division for the second time in the main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday night at the UFC Apex. Their last fight saw Curtis win via KO in the second round back in 2021.

The card will also see a number of key matchups, including the co-main event which will see featherweights Alexander Hernandez and Damon Jackson collide. The pre-lims are set to begin at 8 pm UK time, with the main card starting at 11pm.

Tale of the Tape 

Brendan Allen 

Since his KO loss to Curtis back in 2021, Allen has strung together an impressive six-fight winning streak, which sees him placed at Number six in the UFC middleweight rankings. These include impressive victories in his last two against Number 13-ranked Paul Craig and Bruno Silva.

Allen is somewhat of a submission specialist, with five of those six wins coming via rear naked choke. In particular, his win against BJJ specialist Paul Craig was impressive, as Allen was able to display his high-level grappling to get the submission win.

Allen has an impressive finish rate in his career, with 19 of his 23 wins in MMA coming via stoppage. 14 of these wins have come via submission. Allen has a high submission attempt rate of 1.7 per 15 minutes.

The Curtis defeat is the list time he suffered defeat, but highlighted Allen’s weakness on his feet, with Curtis landing 61 significant strikes to Allen’s 43. The latter also failed to take all three of his takedown attempts. 

Chris Curtis

Curtis has had mixed success lately in his career. He is 3-2 in his last five fights in the UFC, with those two losses came against ninth-ranked Jack Hermansson and former interim-title challenger, Kelvin Gastelum. Both losses came via unanimous decision.

Curtis’ last fight saw him win a split-decision back in January against Marc-Andre Barriault. It was a razor-close fight which saw Curtis land 140 significant strikes to 124 from Barriault. Curtis does land a high number of significant strikes per minute with 5.96. 

He is predominantly a striker, with 15 of his 31 wins coming via knockout. 13 of his wins have also come via decision, while his last KO win came against Jaoquin Buckley back in December 2022. 

Curtis does have a high takedown defence of 92%; something that will be very useful in this fight as Allen will most likely look to take him down. Curtis has only lost once in his career via submission.

Prediction

With Brendan Allen’s form coming into this, he is the heavy favourite. Bet365 have place his odds at 1/2 to win (an implied probability of 66.6%). BetUK have Chris Curtis to win at 9/5 (an implied probability of 35.7%). Ladbrokes expect this fight to be finished, giving odds of 10/21 for it not to go the distance (an implied probability of 67.7%). 

With Allen’s recent six-fight win streak, OddsNow expect him to win this fight via submission.

OddsNow's Pick: Brendan Allen to win via Submission (15/8 @ Ladbrokes)

 

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