Punters Panel: Weekend horse racing betting advice from our experts
With Epsom taking centre stage this weekend, we've assembled a four-man Punters Panel to tackle the key questions from a betting perspective.
Check out who each of our contributors fancy for the Oaks and Derby, plus where other value may lie this weekend.
Introducing the Odds Now Horse Racing Punters Panel
Before we get stuck in, here’s a little bit more on the four men answering our key questions this week:
SD - The self-proclaimed ‘star of the show’ on Races Now, who has been going viral with his daily tips and betting ring analysis in recent weeks.
Adam Smith - A betting industry veteran, flat lover and one half of our Races Now double act.
Harry Fowler - One of Odds Now’s regular racing contributors, currently working in the industry.
Andy Jones - Describes himself as an "average punter" of 24 years who, quite simply, loves the game.
Liam Firkin - Known by many as @AntepostValue on X, Liam was the winner of the 2024 Racing TV Tipstar competition.
Now, onto the good stuff...
What is your best bet for York on Saturday?
SD - I resolved at the start of the year not to bet at York. I know it’s the in place to go but I can’t stand it. My figures show me I always lose there so what the bloody hell is the point? The track varies in its bias and the results are unfathomable.
AS - Kings's Call in the 3:35 is a whopping price. Running in juvenile Group races last year and not disgracing himself. Gelded over the winter and ran a career best in Meydan in January before being found to be injured on two subsequent starts in the UAE. First start for Seb Spencer, who has had a couple of winners recently. Wants quick ground and six furlongs and that's what he gets here. He's any price you like.
HF - In the 1:50 at York, I deliberated whether I fall into the Blue For You trap as he is getting quite well handicapped. I decided to go against him and I actually think Palmar Bay has a lot of upside. Only a handful of runs over this trip and there is plenty more to come following that victory last time. A three pound rise looks generous and William Buick takes over the ride.
AJ - It’s a weekend for keeping stakes low, as you want your betting bank for Ascot. However, Easy Peeler is a very unexposed 3-year-old and whilst the 3:35 at York is full of unknown quality, he was unlucky when not really fancied on his first start of the year at Haydock. John Quinn won the Dash with JM Jungle and this filly can hit the frame at a big price. She is down to run Friday, so it’ll be interesting to see whether they pull her out, seeing as she has just made the cut for this race at the bottom of the weights.
LF - One I do like at York is in the 1:50 and that is Yanifer at 14/1, who is two pounds lower than when entering the season and sits only 2lbs higher than his last winning mark which came at Chester. He has some solid form here at York with a second place last year and his only other start at this course was a winning one when scoring over course and distance in a class four event. On that subject, he drops in class to come into this race after two runs at Chester where he finished 7th on both occasions in class two events and now runs here in class three company. Trainer and owner Harriet Bethell is in good form with two winners from her last 10 runners.
Any fancies over at Sandown?
SD - I’ll dutch Theoryofeverything, who looked like he’d win next time at Haydock and is certainly weighted to do so. Mr Professor will be suited by any rain that falls and palpably looked like he was on stilts tripping around Epsom last week.
AS - I like Theoryofeverything in the 2:05. Hampered at a key stage of his first run of the season at Haydock last month and the jockey dropped the whip. Long been a talented animal and this race could be absolutely perfect for him.
HF - I fancy Town And County in the 2:40. Ran a great race last time behind First Instinct who has since finished a close third in a Group Two and think 9/2 is a decent price.
AJ - I think the top of the market is worth opposing in the Scurry Stakes (2.40), so I’ll go with the James Tate trained Kullazain which should be double figures.
LF - One that I would give an each way chance too is Balmacara at 16/1 in the 2:05. He has recent form that wouldn’t draw your attention immediately to him but I think there are excuses for his last two runs and the duck eggs that sit alongside his name only tell half the story. His last start of last season was his first run in a large field with him having had four of his six runs in fields of ten or less runners. He also didn’t disgrace himself in that Cambridgeshire Handicap where he finished 14th of the 31 runners. He then lined up on the all weather for the first time and clearly didn’t enjoy the surface. If that was intended as a pipe opener that didn’t go to plan, I wouldn’t be too concerned. In the last two seasons he’s performed admirably on his first start of the season so he’s not one who needs a couple of runs to get going. On racecourse debut he finished third of thirteen runners in 2023 and notably was one place ahead of multiple group winner, Economics. He then lined up four months later in March of 2024 where he won at seven furlongs at Doncaster so there’d be no concern from my perspective about him coming in here race ready. He does have top weight to contend with but he’s run at Sandown on two occasions and finished in second place both times. I like the drop back to 1m and he’s the one that I want to be on in this.
Can you give us your biggest fancy from any of Saturday's other cards?
SD - I think a Jouncy on his a game makes him a certainty at Chester, I really do. He ran in the middle park and whilst not straightforward these are trees in comparison.
AS - Jouncy is a tricky horse that is becoming frustrating to follow, not that I've ever backed him. But I have half an eye on him in the 3:20 at Chester. From the family of Frankel and by Wootton Bassett. Clearly not straight forward but should be better than a mark of 97. I'll be keeping an eye on the market.
HF - In the 6:20 at Leicester, Sirius A I think could take some beating. That debut run just keeps looking more and more useful and expect improvement for that run and up in trip
AJ - Nothing else for me. Ascot, Ascot, Ascot!
LF - There’s nothing at this stage that has caught my eye and the above pair are the ones that I’d be most keen on currently.
Who is your favourite flat horse in training right now?
SD - I’ll go Banana, who recently broke his duck after 40 odd runs. He tries so hard and it was lovely to see. He’s surprisingly quick.
AS - Many of us would pocket talk when answering this, which is completely fair enough. But I don't. I have a thing for consistent horses that where I think to myself - wouldn't it be great to own that. And Believing is the one that fits the bill at the moment.
HF - Novus - 2023 Goodwood ran twice and her win was unbelievable. I've never seen a horse hit so much trouble and still win. Loves Goodwood and a slop. Was at Newmarket when she won a Group three, she came swimming out of the fog to hose up at 9/1 and I had a couple mates on her. It was a good day!
AJ - I can’t say I have a favourite horse that’s currently in training. I think the horse that has impressed me the most this season is Los Angeles – he feels a bit like Giant’s Causeway as he keeps fighting back for more. I think he’s a good thing for the Prince of Wales on Wednesday, for which he is 2/1.
LF - I’m a big fan of White Birch. Perhaps a bit cliche to have a soft spot for a lovely grey horse but I took to him straight away after his win in the Ballysax and I think there’s more to come from him too. Sadly, he suffered a couple of issues last season but he’s one on my radar for this season, especially should the rain come which would appear to see him to best effect.
The Epsom attendance was a hot topic this week. What would you do to fix the Derby meeting?
SD - I think Wednesday is a red herring. The world has changed. The hill didn’t used to have a blade of grass on it. Not charging for kids, ditching the Victorian dress code, a more sensible admission structure and engaging with Londoners is a start. Marketing it as the greatest flat race in the world is necessary and maybe a 2-day ticket is the third thing. The supporting card is and has always been moderate and requires attention. A day featuring the Oaks, Derby and Coronation Cup would be some spectacle and move the rest to a family day on Sunday, with free admission to those who attended on Saturday.
AS - How good was it when the Derby and Oaks were on the same day during Covid? Excellent. I'd keep it simple and do that. What that means for the Coronation Cup, I don't know. And stop bowing to FA Cup finals and England vs Andorra.
HF - There are many problems. The prices for adults is crazy but to charge what they did for kids was bonkers. Then, put things on in the middle of the track for kids and funnily enough there was no one there. Derby or not, the prices can’t be that expensive.
AJ - It sounds like they’ve improved the facilities on course. So, the only way to improve it is to drop the price and market the event to get people in. At the same time, one of the things that has stopped people going is the experience and when courses are rammed, the experience is often weakened. I think plenty have been put off from going racing from their experience after Covid in 2022 – Cheltenham that year was absolutely rammed and not particularly enjoyable.
LF - First, the pricing needs to be looked at and I’d always encourage us racing fans to look for answers rather than point out the flaws because we’ve got the latter nailed. I’m going to regurgitate the suggestions of Steve Mellish that were discussed by Nick Luck on Sunday – but perhaps with an added twist. I was a fan of his proposals of making it a one day festival through the afternoon and into the evening. A ‘Friday Supercard’ if you will. It could be made up of nine or ten races which would include the Oaks and Derby and I think you’d see much greater gate receipts and betting turnover than running the festival over the two days. You could have handicaps at the top of the meeting and we build into the main events at the back end of the card. I’d never be one to try and adopt many Americanisms but the fact that their big race cards all build to the main race for one final crescendo would seem to make sense to me. Should we adopt this for this meeting, it would make the Epsom Festival stand out and be an outlier in British and Irish racing with everything building to The Derby, come the final race. I appreciate that this may cause complications with regard to ground and keeping the track fresh for those big races but the build up and marketing of the day, if done correctly, could reinvigorate the festival.
Finally, what’s your best bet for Royal Ascot next week?
SD - Firstly, much depends on the weather and to a greater degree how much Chris Stickels irrigates. American Affair might not be the outsider some think in the old Kings Stand. I’ve often thought Elmonjed could win a big handicap and the Wokingham looks his cup of tea. Just a note on betting on the handicaps, many horses will be appreciably bigger on the exchange on the day. Don’t get sucked in!
AS - Shadow Of Light would be NAP material but a short price. Trawlerman represents good each way value in the Gold Cup, not because I'm a big fan of him but because the top two have question marks.
HF - The more I look, the more I like Rosallion. Do also want to mention Enfjaar, which has now been priced up for the Wolferton stakes. That’ll take some beating.
AJ - The best week in the calendar. It's miles better than Cheltenham. Loads of bets to be had. Invictus Gold in the Wokingham. Los Angeles for Prince of Wales. Gold Digger in the Albany to name but three.
LF - I would be really keen on Bedtime Story if she were to run in the Coronation Stakes. I think we’ve seen the holes that are in the short priced favourite, Zarigana, and I’ll be looking to take her on. However, Bedtime Story looks more likely to turn up in France this weekend so aside from her, one I will be keeping a watchful eye on is English Oak in the Buckinghamshire. His form doesn’t scream out to you but I think they’ve been working back from this race with the plan of retaining this prize and his form this season is perhaps more by design. He now sits just one pound above that winning mark from last year and he’s one on my radar for sure!