Punters Panel: Weekend horse racing betting advice from our experts
Ahead of a busy weekend of racing action, we’ve assembled a team of experts to mark your card – introducing our brand new Odds Now Punters Panel feature!
Introducing the Odds Now Horse Racing Punters Panel
Before we get stuck in, here’s a little bit more on the five men answering our key questions:
Adam Smith - A betting industry veteran, flat lover and one half of our Races Now double act.
SD - The self-proclaimed ‘star of the show’ on Races Now, who has been going viral with his daily tips and betting ring analysis in recent weeks.
Harry Fowler - Another of Odds Now’s regular racing contributors currently working in the industry.
Lee Jones - Racing trader at a leading bookmaker and well-respected judge in betting circles.
Andy Jones - Describes himself as an "average punter" of 24 years who, quite simply, loves the game.
Now, onto the fun stuff!
What is your NAP of the racing weekend?
AS - It has to be Bellum Justum (1.25 Newbury). The ground is against the front two in the market. Bellum Justum goes well fresh. He’s crying out for this trip and James Doyle is in fantastic form in the saddle.
SD - I have yet to look at the minor meetings but at this stage I’d be thinking about Rialannah (2.55 Ayr). She may well prove to be very nicely weighted.
HF - Rashabar (2.35 Newbury) had a cracking season last season, where he was an unlucky second in the Prix Morny over 6F and second when last seen on Arc day on the softest ground he’s encountered, over 7F.
LJ - Crown Of Oaks in the 3.45 at Newbury on Saturday. William Haggas always targets a good horse at this maiden and he has another good one here I suspect.
AJ - Bellum Justum (1.45 Newbury). Loves fast ground unlike his main market rivals. Ran the undefeated St Leger winner Jan Brueghel to a short head last year. The only question would be whether he potentially prefers 10 furlongs.
Which Saturday favourite looks most vulnerable?
AS - Sunway (1:25 Newbury) surely wants softer ground and will have eyes on bigger targets. This Chosen Witness (3.35 Ayr) in the Scottish National looks very short too, even to my flat racing eye.
SD - There’s a few. Lavida Avida (2.55 Ayr) is probably the one to get though. The race crumbled around her last time and she’s been put up in the weights.
HF - Sunway (1.25 Newbury). There are not many short favourites this weekend but I think this one is short enough on seasonal reappearance.
LJ - Sunway (1.25 Newbury) looks particularly short in my opinion. I'd say he wants the ground to be softer and most probably won't be 100% first time up.
AJ - Chosen Witness in the Scottish National (3.35 Ayr). Whilst it is hard to bet against Willie Mullins, the Grand National taught us that the top-priced horse in the market doesn’t always win. Chosen Witness has had thre chase runs without a win, has only won on soft ground and has 22 other runners to beat.
What is your biggest fancy at a double figure price?
AS - Bright Times Ahead (2.00 Newbury) is currently double figures but surely won’t be at the off. An easy winner on debut and Ralph Beckett just gets better and better – he could well be the best trainer in the country.
SD - Rialannah (2.55 Ayr), and maybe Cracking Rhapsody (2.15 Ayr). Third in this last year, he’s in form and looks a bit big at 20s currently.
HF - Henry’s Friend (3.35 Ayr). I really liked its effort two runs back. He is a thorough stayer and I think the extra trip will suit, meaning he could go well in the big race on Saturday.
LJ - Cracking Rhapsody (2.15 Ayr) always runs well in these types of races and at 20/1 is a more than fair price.
AJ - Spanish Harlem in the Scottish National (3.35pm). Trained by Willie Mullins, Spanish Harlem was sixth in this race last season as a novice. Last time out ran fourth in a Grand National trial, from which the second has boosted the form by finishing third in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. The third has won since and the winner ran fifth in the Midlands National. This has likely been the plan all season and he has been dropped 4lbs since last year.
Can you pick us four horses for a Saturday Lucky 15?
AS - Just the three for me this weekend, so call it a patent instead. Bellum Justum (1.25 Newbury), Bright Times Ahead (2.00 Newbury) and Al Qudra (2.35 Newbury).
SD - No I can’t. I hate multiple bets.
HF - Pic Roc (1.43 Ayr), Mountain Breeze (2.00 Newbury), Ethical Diamond (2.15 Ayr), Rashabar (2.35 Newbury)
LJ - Bellum Justum (1.25 Newbury), Cracking Rhapsody (2.15 Ayr), Azada (3.25 Curragh), Crown Of Oaks (3.45 Newbury)
AJ - Spanish Harlem (3.45 Ayr), Bellum Justum (1.45 Newbury), Brighter Times Ahead (2.00 Newbury), Rogue Allegiance (2.35 Newbury).
Will Willie Mullins train the Scottish Grand National winner?
AS - Six runners, the first four in the market and the 1 2 3 5 7 in the Grand National last week. You’d have to think yes. Which one? No idea.
SD - He might do, but Chosen Witness is a feral price. Spanish Harlem could be the answer, a year older than last year and off a lower weight now.
HF - It is always difficult taking on the master trainer but if I’m honest, I don’t think he will do the English/Scottish double.
LJ - More than likely as he trains every other big race winner! But with what, I’m not so sure.
AJ - Yes, I think he’ll do it with Spanish Harlem as stated above.
Does anything take your eye in the flat season ante post markets?
AS - As regular readers of my Odds Now work will know, I like Giselle in whichever Classic she runs in. Al Nayyir at 16/1 for the Yorkshire Cup is too big with a few shorter than him who will not run. I’ve also got my eye on Persica at a silly price for the Lockinge but haven’t pulled the trigger yet.
SD - Not especially. I suppose there’s value somewhere but I rather lost interest at an overround of 187% in the City of York.
HF - Red Letter in the 1000 Guineas. It doesn’t look like Lake Victoria is making it here and this filly was close behind her twice – a shade unlucky on both occasions.
LJ - East India Dock in the Chester Cup. Currently available at 8/1, I can see him going off quite a short price.
AJ - Diego Velaquez in the Lockinge at Newbury in May. Finally got his act together over a mile for Aiden O’Brien and is the trainers only entry in the race. Would be much shorter than 16/1 if he turns up.