Focus On The Flat: Assessing the leading 2025 Epsom Oaks contenders

The former was head and shoulders above her rivals in the 1000 Guineas and tops the market at 3/1 for the Oaks – a race ran over four furlongs further.

It’s a case of running style vs breeding when answering the question of whether she will stay the trip or not. She’s a mile winner at two and runs in an uncomplicated and settled manner, appearing well balanced and tactically versatile. These are many of the ingredients you need for Epsom.

But her breeding would scream otherwise. Night Of Thunder out of Promising Run, who were both very close to fitting in the ‘out and out miler’ box in their respective track careers.

“Ascot or further” was Charlie Appleby’s answer to her next assignment after the Guineas. I could see her staying a mile and a half before maybe dropping back in trip thereafter. Like what we saw at Newmarket, she might just be a class apart and win anyway.

Her form is far and away the best in the book going into the Oaks and her current price is mainly built on the stamina conundrum.

Falakeyah flies 

The Pretty Polly Stakes is not necessarily an official Oaks trial but certainly looked like one this year when Falakeyah pretty much dominated every yard up the Rowley Mile – graduating from a Wolverhampton maiden in November to Listed glory in fantastic style.

Unlike some of the trials discussed later in the piece, this race had some decent yardsticks in it on ratings. And Owen Burrows’ filly galloped all over them.

I thought she was getting lonely late on in what was just her second start, rather than showing vulnerabilities. She’d ran completely alone for over a mile.

Her trainer was far from sold on going to the Oaks next, though, so participation question marks are factored into her current price of 9/1.

O'Brien trio grind out trials

Aidan O’Brien had a quiet Guineas meeting by his ridiculously lofty standards but the Ballydoyle brigade have been well and truly out in force in the Epsom trials since.

Three reconnised Oaks trials in the UK have all been won by O’Brien. Minnie Hauk in the Cheshire Oaks, Giselle in the Lingfield Oaks Trial and Whirl in the Musidora at York. They currently fill positions two, three and five in the ante post market.

Six, seven and eight are also O’Brien-trained, for the record. But we’ve seen this movie many times before – he’s won six of the last 10 renewals.

Minnie Hauk won the Cheshire Oaks but is yet to post an RPR of over 100. Would she even be the O’Brien number one on the day? History tells us that might not matter anyway. All told, she’s got a big jump to make to be winning the Oaks in my opinion.

Whirl put her name in that hat at York with an impressive five and a half lengths success in the Musidora. Looking like a grinder rather than star quality to me, though.

Second on just her second career start, from which the third and fourth rare ated 89 and 86 respectively and the well–backed Smoken trailing in 32 lengths behind Whirl in dead last – somewhat a theme of Ralph Beckett’s classic contenders this season.

Anyway, part owner Michael Tabor noted Whirl as more likely for the French Oaks rather than the English one.

Giselle is the single horse I was most looking forward to this year.

An exciting prospect after a disjointed two-year-old campaign which saw her debut in June when 2nd behind stablemate Bedtime Story, who went on to win the Chesham in mega impressive fashion.

A midsummer set back meant we didn't see Giselle again until October, where she caught the eye of many, albeit odds-on in a maiden. The horse made very smooth progress past most of the field to win that day.

Next up was a Group Three 17 days later back at the Curragh, where she was, again, odds on and given a very much learning ride to be third. Disappointing for backers on the day for sure. But a run full of promise to say the very least. 

Giselle returned this year in a three-runner Lingfield Oaks Trial, which is a disgrace in itself, but that's for another day. Sent off 30/100, she did a fair bit wrong and left more questions than answers to me. Seemingly taking at least half a mile to settle – was that because she's not straightforward or because it was inferior opposition in a tiny field? The fact she wore first time hood might be an indication to the former.

Then, when entering the straight, she was green to say the least and when politely asked to quicken by Moore, her head carriage was awkward for more than a few strides.

But when Ryan asked her for a proper effort at the half furlong mark, she got down to business and scooted clear in nice fashion. Cut to 12/1 for the Oaks on the back of that, she could easily be 6/1 or 20/1 at the off on the first Friday in June – purely on the basis that that Lingfield left more questions than answers.

So, a contender that remains in the 'could be anything box'. But it’s fair to say she won’t be anyway near 20/1 if Mr Moore rides.

Giselle appeals most at the prices

You could fairly comment that all three stablemates Giselle, Minnie Hauk and Whirl have beaten absolutely nothing in their trials. But there’s a potential special quality about Giselle that I am drawn to and I’ll be proven wrong or right on the first Friday in June.

At bigger prices, nothing at all stands out at this stage.

Ralph Beckett has ten currently entered in the Oaks. Four have them are yet to run this season – and the four that have ran all finished closer to last than first. None of them have won a turf race yet this season.

Additionally, Aidan has sixteen entered so that current entry of 47 will soon be whittled down.

I still think Giselle is and will be the number one Ballydoyle runner come June 6, meaning Ryan Moore will ride. She’s available at 12/1 and I think she’ll be half that on the day. Plus, there’s a small chance (admittedly small) the favourite might not run and instead go to Ascot.

Smido’s ante post 1,000 Guineas selection

1pt - Giselle to win the Epsom Oaks - 12/1