Fowler on the Festival: DRF drama shakes up Cheltenham markets

The excitement is really starting to build now with just five weeks to go until the 2025 Cheltenham Festival! 

Over the past two weekends, we’ve had Trials Day events in both England and Ireland. Some races have provided us with plenty of insights, while others have left us with more questions then before – questions that now won’t be answered until the big day. 

In this week's edition, we’ll take a look back at all the key races from the Dublin Racing Festival, reviewing what unfolded and how it has impacted March’s markets.

Mullins mania in Dublin

A Novice Hurdle over two miles and six furlongs kicked things off across the water, where Final Demand was the well backed 11/8 favourite for Willie Mullins. 

Sure enough, he gave his trainer the first of many winners on the weekend, hosing up by 12 lengths in impressive fashion. 

Mullins was quick to make it clear post-race that the Albert Bartlett isn’t on the radar for this horse and looked shocked when the race was even touted as a possibility. 

As a result, Final Demand plummeted from 12/1 into a 2/1 favourite for the Turners, while despite Mullins’ comments, he was also made 5/1 for the Albert Bartlett from a pre-race quote of 8/1.

The one that I am keeping a close eye on is 2024 Champion Bumper winner Jasmin De Vaux, who I think did seem to jump a lot better on his latest outing.

I wouldn’t rule him out of a tilt at the Albert Bartlett and current quotes of 25/1 look tempting right now with some firms.

Trainer Willie Mullins was dominant at the Dublin Racing Festival last weekend. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

The second race on Saturday was the Juvenile Hurdle – a perfect platform for potential Triumph Hurdle contenders to stake a claim. 

Hello Neighbour came out on top here but while it was a good performance, I don’t think either Lulamba or East India Dock will be too worried about him on the big day. 

The big disappointment for the race was hot favourite Saint Lucie, who didn’t run her race at all and looks to have fading hopes of glory in March as a result.

Hello Neighbour is now 11/2 from 8/1 for the Triumph, though the market move feels purely down to being Ireland’s best chance, as opposed to a real 11/2 shot. I expect he will drifted back to around that 8/1 mark in the coming weeks.

The next two races were ones that really caught the eye on Saturday, starting off with the Irish Arkle Novice Chase which was won comprehensively by Majborough. 

With Sir Gino due to run this coming weekend, it was a firm reminder to the Nicky Henderson camp that their superstar in-waiting won’t land the Arkle without beating a serious contender from Irish shores.

For me, this is one of the races I am most excited for at the Festival with two five-year-olds who both have huge futures ahead of them.

Galopin the Great

The Irish Gold Cup followed – my most anticipated race of the entire meeting – where Galopin Des Champs continued to cement his place in the hearts of all national hunt racing fans. 

Coming to the last, I must admit, I was slightly worried for him with the up-and-coming Fact To File looming large. However, the way he cleared away from him once again was breathtaking, going on to win by a comfortable five lengths. 

The scenes at the racecourse afterwards were immense with everyone on such a high after seeing an absolute machine. I can’t wait to see him make it three years running in the Cheltenham Gold Cup! He is now 4/7 from 4/5 for the big day and you’d be hard pressed to say he’s worth taking on.

In last week’s column, I did flag Fact To File and my personal thoughts of how Galopin Des Champs would get the better of him and then he would be rerouted to the Ryanair. 

Galopin des Champs enjoyed more success in Dublin. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

In my opinion, Fact To File has put two of his best performances in over the two-and-a-half mile trip, age is on his side and a Gold Cup tilt will still likely be there next season. 

The market has responded to that performance with a similar line of thought, seeing the horse drift out to 6/1 from 4/1 for the Gold Cup and subsequently shorten from 4/1 into 7/4 for the Ryanair.

Onto Sunday, where we went straight in with the Novice Chase over two miles and five furlongs. Ballyburn went up in trip for the first time and in last week’s column, I mentioned how I did like this horse and thought the step up in trip would be very much welcomed, making him tough to beat in the Brown Advisory. 

Thankfully, this was proved to be right too as he obliged at 8/13 favouritism on the day, winning by five lengths from Croke Park in second – a horse who as a stayer has proved that stamina is never an issue. 

I do think Ballyburn’s jumping wasn’t always the best, but it was an improvement on what we have seen so far and he will have learnt a lot from that ahead of March.

The way he drew away after the last was impressive and I think he has even more in the tank. This classy horse is now 2/1 from 7/2 for the Brown Advisory.

Oh my Bord

Next, we had a new superstar emerge. Kopek Des Bordes… WOW! 

He looks a serious weapon, doesn't he? Before the race he was a 14/1 shot for the Supreme and he’s now into 11/8 favourite.

What looked a weak opening race of the Festival has now changed dramatically. 

In last week’s column, I said I thought he would win Sunday and go on to be Mullins’ Turners horse but unfortunately, I didn’t quite realise how good he was. 

In my mind, he would have had another horse to race against here and clear away to hit the line hard late on. In reality, he was in a race and a league of his own. Another one I can’t wait to see again!

Next we turn our attention to the Dublin Chase, which brought a clash of Ireland’s best two-mile chasers all looking to take on Jonbon, who is banker of the week for many at the Festival. 

Gaelic Warrior was the 6/4 favourite despite everyone being aware of his hatred for the course and once again he disappointed at the venue, finishing a distant third having never looked comfortable or in the race. 

Kopek des Bordes has positioned himself as one of the frontrunners for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle after his heroics in Ireland. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

He did this last season at the same meeting, unseating at the last when beaten by Fact To File but then went onto win the Arkle with ease. This year he has a lot more on his plate and I think the horse needs bottomless heavy ground to win at Prestbury Park.

Solness was once again the winner and this time I don’t think it can be considered just a ‘good ride’ and ‘nicking the race from the front’. 

He set a good gallop and Marine Nationale looked to be coming to get him just before two out, but he went on again and won nicely in the end by two lengths. 

Solness is now a 10/1 shot for the Champion Chase after being halved in price from 20/1 before that victory, and I do think he could be the underrated player in the race. But do I think he will beat Jonbon? No chance.

No worries for Constitution Hill

The last race to talk about is the Irish Champion Hurdle, where once again we received a lot of question marks surrounding both Lossiemouth and State Man. 

Lossiemouth was a faller so early on that there was no way of telling what would and could have unfolded. We have seen her twice now, underperforming when going two miles for the first time in a long time and has falling (and a heavy fall at that). 

Meanwhile, State Man is similar. A complete no-show at Christmas and whilst it isn’t his fault, he has now run in a no-contest beating horses rated 144 to 150. How can we truly say he’s back?

I don’t really give him any chance in the Champion Hurdle. As much as he has achieved throughout his career, I am questioning what has he actually beat? Honeysuckle in her penultimate race. Vauban, Impaire Et Passe, Bob Olinger and last season, Irish Point twice. Are any of those horses good two mile hurdlers? (bar Honeysuckle but when he faced her, she was past her best too). 

The argument that he only does enough to win doesn’t seem to fit for me either, and when faced with proper horses like Brighterdaysahead and Constitution Hill, he has been beaten.

Back next week for some more Cheltenham chat!

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