Ante Post Analysis: 2025 1,000 Guineas First Look

The 1,000 Guineas is just the 11 weeks away and Races Now are the only channel out there doing ante post previews this far out.

At this stage, the headlines are pretty much rinse and repeat from our 2,000 Guineas preview. Aidan O’Brien trains the favourite, Charlie Appleby the second favourite and Aidan O’Brien the third favourite. Exactly the same in both Guineas.

We’ve seen this movie many times before. Yet unlike the 2,000 Guineas this year, it’s the actual champion two-year-old that is favourite for the 1,000 Guineas.

Now there is no surprise there. But Lake Victoria has already proven it at G1 level, three times in fact. Whereas The Lion In Winter is yet to do so, priced more on potential than form in the book. That’s the end of the 2,000 Guineas comparisons. Now lets concentrate on the ladies.

Worthy favourite

Lake Victoria and Desert Flower. Both unbeaten. Both Group 1 winners. Lake Victoria three times over, which makes her the rightful favourite.

She’s a Frankel out of Quiet Reflection. A good maiden winner in June. And just flew from there. Group 3 winner on the July Course in August in authoritative fashion, right up in the van under Sean Levey. Saw off all comers impressively.

Next up was the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, second choice in the Ballydoyle pecking order where Bedtime Story was 4/5, and finished stone last.

Lake Victoria was at the rear at the 2f pole, ridden by Wayne Lordan. Came down the centre of the track and was well on top at the line. A 7f G1 in the bag on her third start.

Then two weeks later it was off to Newmarket for a step down to 6f and the Cheverley Park. She was 6/4 in a deep-looking field. Group 1 winner Babouche in there and two from France.

On that occasion, she was back to being ridden handy by Ryan Moore. At the front in the near side group early on, showing plenty of speed. Never headed really. Bounded up the rise to the finish line. 9/4 on the show. 6/4 at the off. 6f G1. Job done.

Lake Victoria - different gear in the G1 Cheveley Park

🏇 Four runs
🥇 Four wins
🏆 G1 Cheveley Park Stakes
🏆 G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes
5️⃣ A record-breaking fifth win in the race for Aidan O'Brien pic.twitter.com/LNPJGmobCr

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) September 28, 2024

Then it was off Del Mar for the Breeders Cup. A far from a vintage renewal of the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Back up to a mile. First time round a bend, all four of them. Lake Victoria sent off 7/10 and absolutely dominated the race.

There is absolutely no doubt she is a leading 1,000 Guineas contender on everything we saw from her as a juvenile. And we saw quite a lot. Three Group 1 wins over three different distances in three different countries. Impressive.

Flaky Flower form?

Second in the ante post markets is Desert Flower for Charlie Appleby. Unbeaten in four starts including the G1 Fillies’ Mile when we last saw her. That’s usually the race which provides the winter first (or in this case second) favourite for the following years’ 1000 Guineas.

She looks a straightforward and scopey filly to my eye. Clearly a mile will be her absolute minimum trip this year, and she's certain to get further. A fillies mile winner by over five lengths. On the face of it, that should be enough to impress any form reader.

BUT...I do question the form.

Desert Flower beat the same horse into second on her two most recent starts. That was Aidan O’Brien’s January, who’s biggest achievement of 2024 was winning a Listed race at Tipperary.

Since then, the O'Brien runner has been second in the Group 2 May Hill at Doncaster and second again in the Fillies Mile at Newmarket.

There just isn’t a lot of depth to the Desert Flower form in my opinion.

In the Fillies’ Mile itself, Desert Flower was off the Bridle significantly earlier than January, yet bounded clear when she hit top gear out the Newmarket Dip. She strikes me as a horse that is going to need further sooner rather than later as a three-year-old. I

’m not dismissing Desert Flower outright, but what I am saying is that I would much rather be with Lake Victoria than Desert Flower from what we’ve seen so far.

Pondering the alternatives

As per usual, O’Brien has a whole host of other potentials for the Classics away from the favourite herself.

Fairy Godmother and Bedtime Story both made Royal Ascot headlines last June but question marks hang over both. Fairy Godmother is third fav currently but hasn’t been seen since Royal Ascot. And we don’t know why.

Meanwhile, the biggest winning distance of the whole week at Royal Ascot was Bedtime Story winning the Chesham by over 9 lengths. But she was unable to repeat the trick thereafter and finished the year with two pretty disappointing runs in Group 1 races.

Charlie Appleby had to wait until mid October to debut Verse Of Love in a very deep looking Newmarket maiden – and it was worth the wait as William Buick travelled all over his 14 rivals and absolutely wazzed up by five lengths. She sits smack bang in the 'could be anything' box.

But to say a once raced October maiden winner is fourth fav, as low as 12/1 for the 1,000 Guineas, tells you all you need to know about this year’s renewal in terms of depth of quality on offer.

Now you could argue that Lake Victoria and Desert Flower mopped up all the main races themselves and didn’t give anyone else a sniff. But even those in behind those two in the likes of the Moyglare, Cheverley Park, Fillies’ Mile wouldn’t take my eye at this stage. The Moyglare and Fillies’ Mile in particular looked poor renewals to me.

Star yet to emerge?

There simply has to be something that comes out of the pack. It’s completely wide open away from the top two in the market and we are already in the realm of once-raced fillies’ that have been put in at the generic 25/1 or 40/1.

We could get a repeat of last year, where Elmalka was 28/1 on the day, but more importantly, didn’t run at all until November of her two-year-old campaign and was very much under the radar heading into the Guineas itself. So get watching those Kempton maidens!

Two to mention at this stage, for me. Sandtrap made a pretty late debut for Ralph Beckett in September at Salisbury. Sent off  at4/5, the vibes were good and she delivered by nearly five lengths. Now the form of that hasn’t worked out well by any means, but she’s well bred and is one worth keeping an eye on in a trial.

And the final one to talk about is Giselle, who I really like generally for 2025.

She was second behind Bedtime Story on debut – the same Bedtime Story who won the Chesham by 9 lengths two weeks later. Giselle wasn’t seen again until an October maiden at the Curragh, which she won in the fashion of a very nice horse. Granted, something which she probably should be doing given she was 1/2. But it was really impressive.

Then she was back for a Group 3 three weeks later at the same venue and given a very much learning type ride by Ryan Moore. Aidan said in the aftermath of that, “He tried to teach her, which was the right thing to do. He was delighted with her.”

Giselle once again made a sweeping move down the middle of the track, ears pricked, but was unable to sustain it late on. I certainly wouldn’t be put off by that effort, despite the disappointing looking result –  fourth at 10/11.

As with most of the O’Brien horses, I have no idea where they’ll run at this stage. But wherever Giselle goes, I’ll be following.

Smido's current ante post selection for the 2025 1,000 Guineas

As you'd largely expect at this stage, the race is properly wide open, and the vast majority that run in the 1,000 Guineas on May 4^th won’t have even been mentioned by me here.

One thing I can confidently conclude is that I'd rather be with Lake Victoria than Desert Flower, while I'm certain there's a few key players still to emerge in the coming weeks.