The Betting Bunker: Three strong fancies for the 2025 Valspar Championship

Written by: Ross Kilvington

In the latest addition to our tipping arsenal, Odds Now's golf expert Ross Kilvington (@Kilvington91) casts his eye over the Valspar Championship which tees off this Thursday at the challenging Copperhead course in Florida.

Ross is in fine form having landed a Sepp Straka place two weeks ago, before following up last week by correctly tipping Rory McIlroy to triumph at the Players Championship. Let's hope his good run continues here!

Valspar Championship 2025 – key betting insights

The final event of the Florida swing takes place this week with the Valspar Championship. Following on from the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship, the tournament isn’t exactly located in a prime position in the PGA Tour schedule.

The finest players on the planet have played the previous two weeks, with some skipping the Valspar. Indeed, only 24 of the world’s top 50 will be teeing it up in the sunshine state, potentially using it as their last warmup before the Masters.

The par-71, 7,352-yard Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort will play host to the tournament. Established in 1974, the course features a rather unique layout, with four par-5s and five par-3s among the 18 holes.

Water comes into play across several holes while holes 16-18 are known as the ‘Snake pit’, with the par-4 16th the most difficult hole on the course. Players will need to be near perfect off the tee, especially with trees left and water right, a misplaced tee shot could be disastrous.

With some big names missing this week, there is plenty of value to be had at the Valspar.

Valspar Championship 2025 betting tips

Selection #1 - Tommy Fleetwood - 11/1 (10 places, 1/5 odds) 

It is remarkable that Tommy Fleetwood has yet to taste victory on the PGA Tour. The Englishman has come close, finishing second five times since 2016 while recording seven top five finishes in the majors.

Surely he has to make the breakthrough sooner rather than later? This season, Fleetwood has finished no lower than T22 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) before securing T5 and T11 finishes at the Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational respectively.

A third round 75 prevented him from making a challenge at the Players, but there is encouraging signs that the Southport-born player is trending in the right direction heading into the Masters.

With a weakened field as mentioned, Fleetwood will get few greater chances to convert his rock solid form into a trophy.

Selection #2 - Jake Knapp - 60/1 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Knapp was 7-under for the tournament at the halfway stage of the Players Championship last week as he sat just four off the lead.

Rounds of 72 and 73 over the weekend saw him slip back, however, recording a T12 finish – still comfortably his best effort at TPC Sawgrass.

The 30-year-old has enjoyed a consistent season, making the cut in eight of his nine events in 2025, with the highlight being a T6 finish at the Cognizant Classic a few weeks ago. He shot a 59 during the first round of that competition, although he failed to back it up over the following three days.

Knapp ranks 17th for par-5 scoring average this season (4.48) and second for total birdies (159) on the PGA Tour, which could certainly come in handy this week.

IIf he can add a strand more consistency to his game, Knapp could find himself in the winners circle very soon.

Selection #3 Adam Hadwin - 150/1 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Adam Hadwin has a Jekyll and Hyde-like relationship with the Valspar Championship since turning professional in 2009.

His only PGA Tour victory came at the tournament back in 2017, finishing at 14-under for the week. The Canadian has also finished T12 (2018), T7 (2022) and T5 (2024) since that victory.

On the other hand, four of his nine appearances at the Innisbrook Resort have ended before the weekend, missing the cut in 2016, 2019, 2020 and 2023.

The 27-year-old hasn’t quite been sparkling this season, with his best result coming at the Phoenix Open, ending the week T9, although having the weekend off last week might well aid his chances of securing just a second win on the PGA Tour.

The course this week has plenty of bunkers to avoid, with some strategically place, especially across the final three holes.

Hadwin ranks 26th on tour for sand saves (66.89%) this season, suggesting these daunting hazards might not prove to be too much of a hindrance.

Given his record at the course, a price of 150/1 represents solid each way value for those looking at players further down the field.

Ross' three Valspar Championship 2025 betting picks

1pt each way - Tommy Fleetwood - 11/1 (Ladbrokes - 10 places)

0.5pts each way - Jake Knapp - 60/1 (Paddy Power - 8 places)

0.5pts each way - Aaron Rai - 150/1 (Paddy Power - 8 places)

Total stake - 4pts
All each-way terms settled at 1/5th odds

Seasonal stats

Events tipped by Ross - 2

Total staked in 2025: 9pts

Total returns in 2025: 31.8pts

P/L in 2025: +22.8pts 

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