The Betting Bunker: Back sublime Scheffler to three-peat at Bay Hill

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Written by: Ross Kilvington

In the latest addition to our tipping arsenal, Odds Now's golf expert Ross Kilvington (@Kilvington91) casts his eye over the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which tees off this Thursday in Orlando, Florida.

Arnold Palmer Invitational – key betting insights

The PGA Tour’s Florida swing continues this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational, held at Bay Hill Club and Lodge since 1979.

The event is sandwiched between the Cognizant Classic and the Players Championship and the course is one of the most difficult on the PGA Tour. Palmer purchased the course in 1975 and it still ranks as one of the top ten hardest tracks on the professional circuit.

This is due to the abundance of water and daunting bunkers scattered throughout the 18 holes. The sixth hole features a massive lake on the left of the fairway, while there are plenty of bunkers on the right.

The 18th is where the tournament is often won (and lost), with the narrow fairway leading to a green which is flanked by a pond, requiring an accurate approach shot into the final hole.

Last year, Scottie Scheffler won for the second time of his glittering career at Bay Hill, storming to a five-shot victory – and it is hard to look past the reigning Masters champion.

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 betting tips

Selection #1 - Scottie Scheffler - 9/2 (Betfair Exchange)

In four appearances at the tournament, Scheffler (9/2) has won it twice, finished tied for fourth in 2023 and tied for 15th in 2020. A frankly ridiculous record.

He appears at home on the Orlando course and is no doubt relishing what will only be his fourth start of the season due to an unfortunate hand injury sustained during the festive period.

Taming the par-4’s will be key here as always and during his three seasonal starts, Scheffler ranks 1st in par-4 scoring average (3.84) among his peers this season. 

The world number one also ranks fifth for strokes gained on the PGA Tour and if there is an ideal time to secure his first win of 2025, this week would be it given the Masters is just around the corner.

Selection #2 - Sepp Straka - 60/1 (AK Bets)

Prior to the Mexico Championship, Europeans had won four of the previous five events on tour. That roll call of winners includes Rory McIlroy, Thomas Detry and Ludvig Aberg – but it is Sepp Straka (50/1) who I am backing to shine once again here in Florida.

The American Express was the Austrian's third PGA Tour victory and he is now one of the more established European players in the States, which bodes well for Luke Donald ahead of the Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black later this year.

While Straka doesn’t have the finest record at Bay Hill (four missed cuts from five appearances), his form this season has been excellent. The 31-year-old has finished in the top 25 in six of his seven events, including a tied-11th finish at the Cognizant Classic last week.

Driving accuracy will be key to success at this tournament and Straka ranks 11th in driving accuracy percentage on the tour this season (68.75%). Furthermore, his scoring average of 70.031 ranks him sixth among his peers and it is evident the 2023 Ryder Cup star has improved key components of his game vastly in recent months.

Selection #3 - Nick Taylor 125/1 (Bet Victor)

Canadian golf has never been in a better place. The likes of Corey Conners, Mackenzie Huges and Adam Hadwin have all won on tour, but it is Nick Taylor (125/1) who is setting the standard for his nation in 2025.

He won his fifth PGA Tour title at the Sony Open in January, defeating Nico Echavarria in a playoff. Since then, the 36-year-old hasn’t finished lower than 33rd in four starts, meaning he heads into Bay Hill in excellent form.

Last year, Taylor finished tied for 12th here – his career-best result at the tournament – which should give him plenty of confidence heading into this week.

He ranks 16th for driving accuracy (67.35%) and fourth for shots gained on his approach shots (1.048), two key characteristics that could set him up for success in Florida.

A price of 125/1 is simply too good to ignore especially if he gets off to a solid start.

Ross' three Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 betting picks

Scottie Scheffler - 2pts @ 9/2 win only - Betfair Exchange

Sepp Straka - 1pt each way @ 60/1 (5 places) - AK Bets

Nick Taylor - 0.5pts each way @ 125/1 (5 places) - Bet Victor

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