World of Wagers: Mexico, Marseille and Minnesota on the menu

Each week, our football data expert Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into some of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.

In a similar theme to last week’s opening ramble, one of my bugbears when discussing bets with others is that they will tend to see a bet, and then look for pieces of evidence, however tenous, to support that selection.

This sort of confirmation bias is one we are all (myself included) guilty of much of the time, but it’s exactly the kind of thing we as bettors need to cut out as much as possible.

You should instead have a checklist of indicators, be they statistical, market driven or even just your own thoughts (as long as they’re layed out well ahead of time and you apply the same criteria each time you go to look at the odds), and then only select the bets that meet the specifications you’re looking for when in search of value.

For myself, this usually involves a strong combination of sharp money into the market, and a decent difference in my own tissue prices and the initial bookmakers lines, but find whatever suits your style of punting.

Don’t go searching for the bets; let them come to you

Felix's three best bets for April 19 and April 20, 2025

Necaxa to beat Puebla - 1.87 (Unibet/MGM)

In one of the biggest early moves I’ve seen for a long while, Necaxa have been slashed into odds on favourites here from almost a pick 'em contest.

Whilst there’s not much juice left in these odds, my ratings still make them a strong enough favourite (around 1.72) to trust this large market re-evaluation and back them to win on the road against a side struggling for both points and performances.

With Necaxa themselves also battling for a top 6 berth and therefore an automatic playoff berth, that only adds fuel to our fire here.

Over 3.5 goals Marseille vs Montpellier - 2.05 (General)

Montpellier are one of the worst Ligue 1 sides we’ve seen in a fair few years, and defeat this weekend will see them relegated if Le Havre avoid defeat.

On the other hand, Marseille are embroiled in a very tight race amongst the European spots and after some inconsistent form of late will want everything to click against far inferior opposition.

With a handful of potent forwards all vying to get back into some form, I’m expecting fireworks from De Zerbi’s men this weekend, so 4+ goals seems a likely outcome.

Minnesota United to beat Dallas and over 2.5 goals - 2.76 (Bet365)

We go back to the well for MLS goals despite it not going our way last weekend.

I make Minnesota a top 10 side across both divisions on my power rankings, and the market moves towards them have solidified my faith in them winning the game.

Both sides have also shown a propensity for goals in their games so far this team, so doubling up the Minnesota win with the over 2.5 goals seems like a nice play to roll up the value offered on both selections.

Good luck if you're following and happy punting!