World of Wagers: A Turkish tip, Brazilian banker and goals galore Stateside

Each week, our football data expert Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into some of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.

Why being trendy doesn't pay

It’s an interesting time at this point of the year to be a football bettor.

On the one hand, most of the major leagues are on the home straight, winding down before a late May finish and a summer of speculation lying in wait. On the other, some of the more interesting ones are only just beginning, and form has yet to reveal itself fully.

As a result, something I tend to steer clear of when looking to make my bets is trends.

You know the ones...'such and such have failed to score in their last 6 home games against top half opposition', or, 'this bet would have landed in the away side’s last nine games on a Tuesday'.

Maybe that is a touch facetious, but my general point is this – do your best to judge each game on its own merits and not part of a wider series of events.

Yes, patterns do emerge, teams go on winning streaks or struggle to score, but these are part of a far bigger picture. Sport is inherently chaotic and random in its nature, and things will tend to fall into their natural order only after an extended period of time.

Therefore, looking into predictive data points that can tell you HOW a team is going to play in upcoming games, rather than comfortable repeatable patterns from the past that simply told you WHAT a team may or may not have done, is a much better strategy in my opinion for consistent long term success.

Maintaining that strategy, let's see if we can unearth three winners from around the globe this week...

Felix's three best bets for April 12 and April 13, 2025

Goztepe DNB vs Konyaspor - 1.85 (General)

Turkish outfit Goztepe are having themselves quite the season. They currently sit 7th in the actual Super Lig standings, and 6th on my power rankings, which are based on underlying performance metrics and market closing lines.

Compare that to a pretty apathetic campagin from Konyaspor (12th and 16th in those metrics, respectively) and you can see why I don’t really rate this game as a pick’em.

Star strike duo Romulo and Juan both look to be back fit and ready to play for the away side, but I’d still prefer to play it safe and take the option of a draw refund here. That said, I do struggle to see them tasting defeat here

Palmeiras to beat Corinthians - 2.05 (Betway/Bet365)

It’d take a whole article in itself to explain the complexities and nuances of the footballing pyramid in Brazil, but this is an early season league clash between two old foes.

I can see why the price is a little toppy on Palmeiras (a top 25 side in the world on my ratings), as they play a midweek game in the Copa Libetadores.

However, that’s a home game where they are very heavy odds on favourites, so I don’t see it as enough of a concern to put them off the task of putting Corinthians to the sword this weekend.

I’d make them closer to a 1.7 shot to get the job done here, so at odds against, it’s a no-brainer.

Philadelphia Union over 1.5 goals vs NYCFC - 2.30 (LiveScore Bet)

We take a bit of a ‘flyer’ (one for the NHL fans) with our last pick here, but with sound logic underpinning it.

I actually disagree with the pricing here, making Philly slight favourites myself, and the market has started to move towards the Union in the last day or so.

However, rather than chancing a win away in New York, I like the chances of Tai Baribo (six in six!) and co to get at least two goals on the board in what my model would expect to be a fairly high-scoring game.

Something like a Union draw no bet/BTTS double would also make complete sense here – any way you fancy getting both the goals and the away side in your favour feels like the value play to me.