World of Wagers: On a (Swiss) roll

Each week, our new football data contributor Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into one of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.

This week's edition sees Felix turn his attention to the Swiss Super League.

The Swiss national side have been the quiet but consistent presence on the international stage in the last twenty years. They’ve made every major tournament since Euro 2004 bar Euro 2012, indeed reaching the knockout stages of the last six on the trot. 

This is often mirrored in their clubs’ performances in UEFA competitions; you can always bank on a Swiss side or two being there, but don’t expect them to go too deep into the competition. 

For a nation famed for manufacturing a wealth of lovely watches, it’s apt that the Swiss Super League just ticks along nicely. Goal rates are never extremely high nor low, the same faces tend to challenge for the title each season but there’s still some variety of winners and it’s generally a pleasant watch if you happen to catch a game. 

All of this actually adds up to quite a nice league to bet on, with moderate value to be found in all types of markets, and backing the right teams will pay dividends with their consistency.

Leans - two teams to keep on side

There is a chance we may have caught onto the train late with Young Boys by now, but they’re still only looking in one direction and it isn’t down. 

They bucked the trend of top teams being consistent in the first half of the year, by having their truly awful Champions League form carry over into their domestic games, even finding themselves rock bottom after a handful of games. 

However, their true class has shone through in recent months, with three wins on the bounce in their most recent games capping off a surge back up the table, now just a point off the top six. 

My ratings, using underlying metrics and market closing lines, have them as the second strongest in the league, and you could argue that on paper, they do also have the best squad. 

In spite of this, there still may be a drop of value in them as the season winds down, particularly on the road.

Young Boys are enjoying a resurgence in form after a difficult start on the domestic front. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Meanwhile, the eye catching January addition of Nestory Irankunda to Servette really did turn my head, and he could propel what’s already a strong season into an excellent one. 

Unbeaten in three, and just a win off second place, the young Australian could be a real difference maker for his new side down the stretch. 

He was electric in the A League, and highly rated at Bayern (his parent club), so alongside former Spurs youngster Maksim Paskotsi, another talent I’ve had an eye on for several years, he could be enough to push Servette into the top two or three ahead of the top six split. 

Fades - two teams to oppose

For Servette to keep climbing the table, I fear it will be Luzern that they overtake. 

They currently occupy second place, but more predictive signals point towards them being more like the league’s sixth or seventh strongest side. 

A couple of tricky fixtures lie ahead, which added to a trio of injuries to important regulars Ciganiks, Owusu and Spadanuda give me enough cause to concern to look elsewhere in the coming weeks, particularly given they’re likely to be priced up fairly short between now and season’s end

The rest of the table matches up rather nicely to how my current power rankings see the lay of the land within the league. 

However, if you pushed me to get against another club between now and season end, my pick would be Yverdon. 

They sit second from bottom, seven points clear of Winterthur and with a marginally healthier goal difference. My ratings do actually have the two sides inverted in eleventh and twelfth, though.

So, if you want to consistently get against a weaker side, they and not Winterthur would be my suggestion.

Yverdon are having a tough time of it in the Swiss top-flight this season. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Best bets for the Swiss Super League this weekend

Lugano to beat Luzern - 2.00 (Unibet)

There’s several reasons that make this an appealing pick. 

The first is, as discussed above, my question marks over how sustainable Luzern’s current record is. Lugano have quite a strong split between their home/away form, but in their own ground they’re pretty formidable opposition. 

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, this really is a standout price with Unibet. Lugano are shortening with most firms into around a general 1.91 so this seems to represent some excellent value.

Young Boys to beat Winterthur and BTTS - 2.90 (William Hill/888)

I’ve extolled the virtues of Young Boys’ recent resurgence already, as well as giving a nod to Winterthur perhaps not being as poor as the table would suggest, so let’s have a bit of a flier on this one. 

The main juice in this price stems from Winterthur’s goal-shy home form, averaging just a solitary goal per game.

But Young Boys can be leaky on the road, and if we’re expecting an uptick in form from the league’s bottom side, we may well at least back them to get on the scoresheet here.

St Gallen over 1.5 goals vs Yverdon - 1.70 (William Hill/888)

Let’s balance out a riskier selection with a slightly safer, but still high upside, play. 

St Gallen are all the things I’ve described Swiss sides as; solid, reliable, good for goals but not too many of them. 

I think they’re bang on the right price here away at Yverdon, and I feel they ease past them with a couple of goals, so let’s keep it sensible and just back them to get two or more

I hope you’ve enjoyed your whistle stop tour of the Swiss top flight, and best of luck with any selections you place this weekend and beyond! Join me next time as we hop on a plane to elsewhere in the world in the pursuit of some value…

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