World of Wagers: Second helping in Spain
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Each week, our new football data contributor Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into one of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.
This week, Felix takes an in-depth look at the Spanish Segunda Division.
The lights shine brightly on La Liga, as arguably the second most popular and well known of Europe’s leagues outside of the Premier League, and with its array of world class players over the past 25 years.
Indeed, it could be argued that Spain’s top flight has had the highest concentration of world class talent of any division since the turn of the millennium.
In spite of this, the Segunda (literally ‘second’) division receives very little fanfare. Regarded as a generally dour league, where unders bettors rule and the football is far less attractive, this stereotype has been put to the test in recent seasons – particularly by the likes of Las Palmas two years ago.
Now home to a diverse array of sides, from those who have shone at the top level very recently (Deportivo La Coruna, Malaga), to smaller clubs really punching above their weight (Ferrol, Burgos) and many in between, the Segunda offers enough competitive balance and lack of in depth coverage to make it a haven for punters on the search for value.
Leans - two Spanish Segunda teams to keep on side
It speaks to the competitiveness of the league that just six points separate first and eighth after 27 games, with a further three points between ninth and eighteenth!
The quirk of this is that there are actually some quite large disparities between where teams lie in the table and how they fare on my ratings, which account for results in addition to underlying performance metrics and market movements.
Despite sitting sixth currently, Almeria sit top of the pile for me. They were truly awful in being relegated from La Liga last season, but they don’t seem to have let that, not the departure of star Largie Ramazani, affect them all that much.
Despite shaky recent form in their last three, if Luis Suarez (not that one) can keep fit and firing, then the supporting cast is more than capable of pushing towards a top-two berth, or competing strongly in the playoffs at the minimum.
Almeria have impressed in their return to the Segunda Division this term. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)
At the other end of the table, there’s a glimmer of hope for Tenerife despite sitting second bottom at present.
Problems persist at both ends of the pitch for the Canary Islanders but in particular, their defensive record is very shoddy.
The squad is talented for the level however, and some of the more predictive metrics paint towards some of that poor conceding rate regressing before seasons’ end.
They may not escape the drop, but they could certainly be one to get with on the handicaps as they fight with all they have to stay up.
Fades - two Spanish Segunda sides to oppose
Strangely enough, two of the top three are actually only rated as middling sides according to my models, so tread carefully given the gap between expectation and reality here as it is about as stark as you will ever see.
That said, if the chance comes to get against either of Huesca or Mirandes over the last few weeks of the season, it does need to be seriously considered.
Mirandes sit top on goal difference ahead of a very strong Santander side, with Huesca just a point behind, and both clubs are on a decent run with seven points out of the last nine available.
With that top eight being so tight however, any mistakes may be severely punished by the chasing pack, and Mirandes in particular have precious little experience of a championship run-in like this.
I have the sides rated 11th and 12th, so props to them for proving me wrong for so long this season.
But the tide can turn in a league as balanced as this rather quickly, and if these two are playing any of the other top sides, I’d much rather be with their opponent.
Mirandes' lack of experience could see them falter between now and the season's end. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)
Best Spanish Segunda bets for February 21 - 23, 2025
BTTS Gijon vs Almeria - 2.00 (Bet365)
My most fancied side, Almeria, face a tricky trip to Gijon, who are a different beast at home compared to on the road.
A bit of money has come for the away side however, and I do think they can get the job done – it just won’t be easy.
The Segunda isn’t a league full of goals, but even the 1-1 draw is on our side here, and I wouldn’t be against a small play on the 2-1 either way here either.
It just screams high-quality affair to me.
Cordoba DNB vs Ferrol - 1.75 (Coral/Ladbrokes)
I’m expecting this to be another fairly dull clash, hence wanting the draw on side despite it reducing the price fairly heavily.
The relative goalscoring splits at home/away for the two sides don’t make for eye catching reading, but based on form and my underlying ratings, I struggle to make a case for Cordoba losing the game here. Therefore, a worst case of getting a stake back isn’t a bad option to take here.
Huesca/Draw DC vs Deportivo La Coruna - 1.81 (Unibet/MGM)
Oh, what a difference 25 years can make.
From a La Liga title and UCL semi-finals to dropping into the third tier and nearly going bust, to now being a middling Segunda side. It’s been a whirlwind for La Coruna, but don’t expect fireworks or drama in this game.
Yet again, the theme is to play it safe and keep the draw on your side. Whilst above I did say that getting against Huesca may be advisable, I don’t think this is the type of game to do it in.
Let them grind out a point (or three) this weekend and then try to take them on against their promotion rivals whenever possible.
I hope you’ve enjoyed your whistle stop tour of the Spanish second division, and best of luck with any selections you place this weekend and beyond! Join me next time as we hop on a plane to elsewhere in the world in the pursuit of some value…
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