World of Wagers: Going Dutch in the search of value

Each week, our new football data contributor Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into one of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.

Offering up some telling nunbers and insight on a division lacking significant media coverage, reading this may just help you unearth a few obscure winners this season!

To the average football fan, those leagues outside the so called ‘Big 5’ of England, France, Spain, Germany and Italy are very often defined by the handful of clubs that crop up in European competition season after season.

Few places is this truer than the Eredivisie, the Dutch top flight, where the trio of Ajax, PSV and Feyenoord have had a stranglehold for what seems like an eternity. Indeed, in the last 40 years, just 2 league titles have gone to a club outside this trinity (coincidentally, in back to back seasons for AZ and Twente from 2008-2010).

Whether it be Tottenham’s famous last gasp comeback to reach the 2019 Champions League final at Ajax’s expense, or more recently, the total collapse from 3-0 up of Manchester City at home to Feyenoord, there are plenty of vivid memories of free-flowing Dutch sides in continental competition. However, I’d argue that relatively little is known of what goes on in the Eredivisie itself outside of those elite teams, and there’s actually a few compelling stories to follow this season.

So, I’d like to give you a couple of teams to keep an eye on from a punting perspective, both to get with and against for the remainder of the season, as well as three picks for the upcoming matchday to add some interest to your weekend’s slate

Two Eredivisie clubs to keep on side in the coming weeks

Sparta Rotterdam

Despite currently being sat in the relegation play-off spot after losing three on the spin, I don’t see Sparta Rotterdam remaining there come season’s end.

They have had a pretty wretched start with just two wins from 15, but there is more to be encouraged by in their performances. Based on my own ratings model, which is built incorporating raw results, underlying performance data and market implied expectations from closing lines, it’d be more reasonable to peg Sparta in the 8th-11th range, and those chances will be further bolstered once exciting City Group loanee Kayky is back fit again.

The Brazilian forward has been highly rated since his teenage years and should help to solve some of Sparta’s lack of ruthlessness in front of goal. Keep an eye on some big prices when playing fellow bottom half sides.

AZ Alkmaar

At the other end of the table, AZ Alkmaar will no doubt be a touch disappointed with their current position of sixth, but three wins on the trot and a very healthy goal difference has them 4th in my latest power rankings — not too far behind the big trio.

AZ are having to juggle Europa League action (where they are 19th) with league fixtures, which likely hasn’t aided what it a relatively slim squad.

But with a break from UEFA action after this Thursday until late January, expect to see them build on that momentum into the New Year — especially if you can get some nice prices in their clashes with Twente and Utrecht.

Two Eredivisie clubs to oppose in the coming weeks

Utrecht

Speaking of Utrecht, it has been nothing short of a superb start that perennially finds itself sat between 5th and 9th. Indeed, they have finished 4th or higher just twice since 1990, so their lofty second spot is looking rosy, with 11 wins and just two losses in the opening 15 games (those losses only coming against PSV and Feyenoord, no less).

However, I’m not totally aboard the Utrecht train just yet. Their +9 GD is the lowest in the top six, and their performance data suggests even that is probably quite generous.

I’d have them 6th/7th at the moment, so whilst I don’t think the bubble will completely burst, I fear the time to side with them may have passed and the market may begin to overreact a touch to their glossy results. Tread with caution.

Heerenveen

One side I absolutely cannot condone backing would be Heerenveen.

Being sat slap bang in midtable with a -12 goal difference is rarely sustainable, and more predictive signals point towards them being the 15th best side or so in the league.

That cushion to the dreaded drop zone has been built, and with a mixed bag of fixtures ahead, they’re a tricky side to call. But on the whole, I’d rather be with their opponents than the Super Frisians.

Three Eredivisie weekend tips for December 13th - 15th

AZ Alkmaar to beat NAC Breda - 2.14 (Unibet)

As mentioned above, I want to be getting with AZ ahead of the New Year.

They are in Europa League action on Thursday, away in Bulgaria against the champions Ludogorets, and whilst it won’t be a stroll for them, I can’t see it knocking them too out of kilter for Sunday evening’s clash.

Breda are a lower midtable side on my ratings, and I would just about make AZ an odds on shot here. I don’t see us getting too many more prices like this on AZ between now and May, so this one needs to be taken

Feyenoord -2 Asian Handicap vs Heracles - 1.97 (BetMGM)

For anyone not too familiar with Asian Handicap betting, it is an excellent way to try and level the difference in class between two sides to try and give you a bet that is near enough a 50/50 shot.

In this case, we need Feyenoord to win by 3+ goals to win our bet (we will get our stakes back if they win by exactly two and lose with just a one goal victory). Feyenoord are another side who don’t face the trickiest midweek UEFA assignment against Sparta Prague, and really should have far too much for Heracles to even lay a glove on them.

They are missing a fair few players, but have good depth and are still shortening slightly in the market to win this game, so I’d take this -2 before it has chance to become a -2.25 come kick off.

Ajax win to nil vs Almere City - 1.8 (William Hill)

Rounding off our picks, we’re getting with a third side with a midweek game, albeit a much trickier one by taking on Lazio at home.

However, this is a less a pro-Ajax stance and more anti-Almere, particularly with their record in front of goal this season. Just seven goals from 15 matches (with 34 conceded). Whilst their underlying performance metrics are a little more generous, I still have them as by far one of the two worst sides in the division.

Additionally, Ajax are likely to be without just one of their first choice back four in Devyne Rensch, whilst Almere will have to do without possibly their most talented forward, Baptiste Guillaume. Overall, it doesn’t paint a pretty picture as they head to the Johan Cruyff Arena.

I hope you’ve enjoyed your whistle stop tour of the Dutch top flight, and best of luck with any selections you place this weekend and beyond! Join me next time as we hop on a plane to elsewhere in the world in the pursuit of some value…