West Ham vs Aston Villa: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Stuart Pike

West Ham host top-four contenders Aston Villa as both return to Premier League action on Sunday afternoon. 

Both recorded impressive victories in European competition mid-week. Kick-off is set for 2pm UK time at the London Stadium. 

Recent Form 

West Ham

A crushing midweek 5-0 Europa League victory over Freiburg has transformed the mood at the London Stadium, where West Ham have secured just one win since Christmas (W1, D3, L1). Only bottom side Sheffield United have a worse expected goals against (xGA) tally in home games than the Hammers' 1.59; the actual goals conceded figure is marginally better at 1.5 per game.

Only three teams have a lower expected goals (xG) tally on home soil than the West Ham’s 1.19, though their actual home scoring record is significantly healthier at 1.71. Overall, West Ham’s home points average of 1.64 is the eleventh best in the division. OnlyBrighton have a higher percentage of home draws than their 36%.

David Moyes’ men have lost just one (W2, D3, L1) of six home games immediately following European commitments this season.

Aston Villa

Fourth-placed Aston Villa have hit a rich vein of form on the road - just as fortunes at Villa Park have headed south. However, the start of a suspension for John McGinn following his red card in the damaging defeat to Tottenham will be keenly felt. The captain has started all 28 games in the league - bagging six goals and three assists.

Given his skipper’s absence, manager Unai Emery will be desperate for top scorer Ollie Watkins to recover from a knee laceration that forced him off in Thursday night’s 4-0 Europa Conference League victory over Ajax. The 16-goal striker has registered 26 goal involvements - 44.1% of the Villains’ league tally.

Villa have won half of their 14 away league matches - including three on the bounce. However, they have won only once all season at a top-half side’s ground. The visitors average 1.71 goals per game on the road - above their xG of 1.57. They have conceded 1.57 goals per game, compared to an xGA away of 1.43.

Villa have drawn three of their six away trips immediately following Europa Conference League outings this season (W2, D3, L1).

Prediction

Aston Villa, who have not won at West Ham since 2011, start as marginal money line favourites to take the three points; however, the absence of their ever-present skipper makes the draw the best-value bet.

OddsNow's Picks: Draw (14/5 @ William Hill)

 

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