West Bromwich Albion vs Watford: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Fifth-placed West Bromwich Albion host mid-table Watford at The Hawthorns on Monday afternoon. The hosts know a win will help cement their place in the play-offs.
The reverse fixture ended in a 2-2 draw in September. Kick-off is set for 3pm UK time.
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West Bromwich Albion
The Baggies come into this game on a great run of form, having gained 19 points from their last ten Championship games (1.9 points per game), the fifth-best record in the league.
However, they only managed a 1-1 draw away at Millwall in their last match, meaning they are only three points ahead of sixth-placed Norwich and seven points in front of seventh-placed Coventry, having played a game more than the West Midlands outfit.
Carlos Corberan’s men have been especially impressive at home this season, gaining 2.21 points per game, the fourth-best record in the league. They head into Monday’s match having won seven of their last eight home matches, conceding only four goals.
However, they have been overperforming at The Hawthorns, having scored 1.63 goals per home game from an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.21 whilst only conceding 0.74 goals per home game despite an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.0.
If West Brom win on Monday, Michael Johnson is likely to play a hugely significant part. The winger on loan from Celtic has torn apart defences since his arrival in January, contributing six goals and one assist at a rate of 0.94 goals per game.
Watford
The Hornets have improved greatly since interim manager and former Watford player Tom Cleverley took charge. Cleverley's side gained four points in his first two games, the same number that Watford gained in former manager Valerien Ismael’s last five matches in charge combined.
In their most recent fixture, Cleverley impressively led his side to a 2-2 draw at home to a Leeds side that was top of the league prior to kick-off and had won 12 out of their last 13 Championship matches.
Watford have performed better on their travels this season than at home, gaining 1.42 points per away game, the eight-best away record in the league, compared to a mere 1.1 points per home match. However, they have overperformed on the road, scoring 1.26 goals per away match from an xG tally of 1.17 and conceding 1.32 goals per away match from an xGA tally of 1.6.
The Hornets have really struggled against the top seven away from home this season, having gained only one point from the four away matches they’ve played so far against the top seven this season, conceding 12 goals in the process.
Despite Cleverley’s strong start to his tenure, the Hornets have conceded 30 shots in his two Championship matches in charge. They must reduce this number greatly to get a result on Monday against a West Brom side with the joint third-best shot-conversion rate in the Championship (10.7%).
A fine finish with the celebration to match! 🤩#EFL | @WatfordFC pic.twitter.com/GTZrjFIEcF
— Sky Bet Championship (@SkyBetChamp) March 29, 2024
Prediction
West Brom head into this match with much more to play for than midtable Watford, knowing that a win is crucial in staying ahead of their rivals in the play-offs. The home side are unbeaten in seven league matches, scoring 15 goals, and have only lost at home three times all season.
Despite overperforming their xGA at home, West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their home matches this season, and therefore, a goal fest is unlikely.