Back this 5/1 UEFA Nations League acca on Thursday

The first international break of the new season is finally here - just what the doctor ordered, right? 

Football fans make no attempt to hide their disdain for the early season interruption to the club football calendar, so I thought I'd throw a tasty little accumulator your way to make the first night of Nations League football somewhat bearable. 

I've endured a mixed bag so far in 2024-25. A winning treble in the Champions League play-offs was followed by hit-and-misses in the first two editions of my European football betting column. Here's to evening the score (pun intended) as I offer up a few predictions across the matches taking place on Thursday.

Brad Walker's best Nations League bets for Thursday, September 4th, 2024

Scotland to beat Poland @ 7/5 - 1 pt

Spain to beat Serbia @ 8/15 - 2 pts

Portugal to beat Croatia @ 11/20 - 1 pt

Scotland, Spain & Portugal treble @ 4.73/1 - 1pt

Selection #1 - Scotland to beat Poland (7/5)

Neither of these sides will have been happy with their performances in Germany this summer after bowing out during the group stages. 

Both failed to win a single game en route to their elimination, heaping pressure on their respective managers to improve on their form in the Nations League.

Scotland manager Steve Clarke is especially walking a tightrope after five years in the Hampden hotseat. Their departure in Germany led to speculation as to whether Clarke was the right man to lead the national team moving forward, yet the 61-year-old remains in the role ahead of the start of Scotland's Nations League campaign in Glasgow tomorrow evening, at least for the timebeing.

A poor start could see a change of face north of the border, but Clarke can take plenty of hope from Scotland's home record during Euro 2024 qualifying. The Tartan Army won four of their five matches on home turf, the only exception being a 3-3 draw against Norway in their final outing. 

Their record in the Nations League makes for even better reading. Scotland have won seven of their eight home fixtures since the competition was formed in 2018. Five of those games saw them keep a clean sheet. 

The Scots may have drawn and lost their two subsequent home matches since the Norway game, but are well-versed in getting results when the pressure is on. Outside of major tournaments, Clarke's men have been mightily impressive and face an ageing Poland side who flattered to deceive in an admittedly difficult group at the Euros. 

The Eagles had to rely on the play-offs to scrape a place in Germany and finished with just a single point to their name after their three group outings. Overall, Poland have won just three of their last 12 matches on the road, and one of those came on penalties against Wales in Cardiff back in March. 

I just can't see them going to Hampden and getting anything. Clarke is in dire need of three points but his squad always seem to perform in front of the Hampden crowd. Backing anything other than a Scotland win is a huge risk that I'm just not willing to take. 

Scotland's recent record at Hampden Park is superb heading into the Poland match. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Selection #2 - Spain to beat Serbia (8/15)

What a 2024 it has been for Spanish football. From European Championship glory in Berlin to seizing Olympic gold in the men's tournament at the Paris Olympics, the nation is currently riding the crest of a wave. 

This squad may only just be getting started, too. The Spanish ranks are bursting with young talent. From Barcelona teenager Lamine Yamal to Bilbao sensation Nico Williams, La Roja are well poised to be competing for major honours for many years to come.

Former youth manager Luis de la Fuente steered the current crop to victory in Germany but the Euros were not his first major honour since taking charge of the senior team. The 63-year-old first tasted victory with the country's first ever Nations League triumph after Spain secured a 5-4 penalty shootout victory over Croatia in June last year. 

Their momentum has been growing ever since and, after lifting their fourth European Championship title this summer, the Spanish will now be targeting a successful defence of their Nations League title in the 2024-25 iteration of the tournament. 

First on the agenda is a trip to Belgrade to take on a stuttering Serbia side. Dragan Stojkovic's men underwhelmed at the Euros where they finished bottom of group C, failing to win a single game. 

Their poor form led to questions over Stojkovic's future but the Serbian FA confirmed he would continue in his role, despite the meagre performances in Germany. 

The 59-year-old undoubtedly has talent in his squad, particularly in forward areas. Aleksandar Mitrovic, Dusan Vlahovic and Luka Jovic all have a track record of scoring goals across the continent and defender Strajinha Pavlovic has made a solid start to his AC Milan career. 

Whether the Serbians have enough to overcome this flying Spain side is another matter entirely, mind. Sure, the hosts lost just one of their four home matches in Euro qualifying, but the Spanish are no slouches on their travels. 

Including their six matches in Germany, Spain have won their last 11 games on foreign soil. With all this in mind, it's hard to back against them continuing their good form on Thursday evening.

Selection #3 - Portugal to beat Croatia (11/20)

Estadio do Benfica plays host to two sides who have, historically, performed well at European Championships but also underperformed in the summer. 

Hosts Portugal were among the sides tipped to go deep in the competition, yet succumbed to a penalty shootout defeat to France at the quarter-final stage. Portuguese hero Cristiano Ronaldo failed to score a single goal at the tournament in what is likely to be his final appearance at a Euros. 

The same can be said of Croatia legend Luka Modric. The Real Madrid midfielder has confirmed he will continue to represent his country for the timebeing but will surely be long gone by the 2028 Champions roll around. At least Ronaldo got a chance to play in the knockout stages one last time - Modric wasn't so lucky. 

Croatia crashed out of a competitive group B after securing just two points across their three group matches. A crushing last-gasp equaliser from Italy's Mattia Zaccagni confirmed their fate on matchday three, denying Zlatko Dalic's men a chance at progression. 

Both sides head into the Nations League hoping to rebuild ahead of World Cup qualifying, which begins in March 2025. 

Neither nation will have been satisfied with their efforts in Germany but the greater concerns surely lie with an ageing Croatia squad that is crying out for an injection of youth. The likes of Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, Mateo Kovacic and Ivan Perisic are about to enter the twilight of their careers, if they haven't already. Other than defender Josko Gvardiol, it's difficult to see when the next great Croatian talent comes from. 

The same cannot be said of Portugal. Sure, they're on the cusp of waving goodbye to an all-time great in Ronaldo, but A Seleção are in good hands with emerging prospects such as Rafael Leao, Francisco Conceicao and Vitinha.

Combined with world-class commodities in Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes and Ruben Dias, this Portugal squad has an added layer of quality their Croatian counterparts appear to be lacking.

The hosts' home record is also compelling. Portugal have won 15 of their last 17 fixtures on home turf, though one of those blemishes was a 2-1 friendly loss to Croatia in June. Nevertheless, I'm backing the youthful exuberance of the Portuguese to prove too hot to handle for a faltering Croatia side on the opening night of the new Nations League campaign. 

Modric is unlikely to feature at another European Championships for Croatia. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)