Udinese vs Napoli: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Udinese host Napoli at the Bluenergy Stadium this Monday as the curtain falls on Serie A Matchday 35.
With just four games remaining, points are vital for both sides, with Udinese scrapping for their top flight survival and Napoli fighting to be involved in Europe in some way or another. The match kicks off at 7.45pm UK time.
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Udinese
It's no surprise that Udinese are in a relegation fight having won only 4 Serie A matches all season long. They do have the highest number of drawn matches (17) by far in the whole league though, which shows at least they can dig deep and can be hard to breakdown at times. However, in their current predicament, draws will no longer suffice. One positive note for 'I Bianconeri' is that their final three games after this are against sides in the bottom half of the table – Lecce, Empoli and Frosinone.
Udinese come into the game with just one win in their previous 10 league encounters. They’ve picked up on average just 0.7 points per game during that run of fixtures. That’s lower than their seasonal points per game average of 0.85. “Football is a game of two halves”, the famous saying goes, and it’s been very apt for Udinese’s performances of late. In three of their previous four matches, Fabio Cannavaro’s men were leading at half-time. They would only go on to pick up a single point from all those three encounters.
A further concern for Udinese is their home form. They’ve only won two games in 2024, against Lazio and Juventus, and both of those results came on the road. You have to go back to December 30th for their last home success, a 3-0 victory over Bologna. Amazingly, that was also their only victory at the Bluenergy Stadium this season. Despite picking up just 3 points from their last 6 home starts, Udinese have not been blown away by their opponents. They’ve conceded an average of just 1.6 goals per game during that run of matches. It’s scoring goals which has been their Achilles' heel of late. 'I Bianconeri' have netted an average of just 0.66 goals per game in their last six at home. They’ve also netted exactly the same average (0.66) in their previous 15 matches (home and away).
Napoli
It was always going to be hard for Napoli to hit the heights of last season, which saw them clinch their first Serie A title for 33 years. However, their fall from grace during this campaign, especially the second half of it, has been pretty dramatic. Unless they turn things around in their final few games, they could be facing their worst league finish since the 2008-09 season.
In comparison with recent seasons, 'I Ciucciarelli' have been performing poorly at both ends of the park. Napoli haven’t netted less than 60 goals in a league campaign for 13 seasons, but they’ve only scored 52 Serie A goals this term, with 4 games remaining. Francesco Calzona’s men have also struggled defensively, conceding 43 league goals to date. Napoli have only had over 43 goals scored against them during a Serie A campaign on five occasions since their return to the top flight in the 2007-08 season.
Napoli won’t want the season to be a total washout. Despite currently residing in 9th spot, they will know that a positive finish to the campaign, could see them pick up a vital European place. However, Napoli’s recent form is nothing to write home about. Their Champions League exit to Barcelona in the Round of 16 was tough to handle and they’ve only won 1 of their last 6 Serie A matches since that defeat in Spain. A small plus for Napoli ahead of Monday’s encounter is that they’ve been marginally better on the road recently. They’ve won 2 of their last 4 league games on their travels, compared to having won only 1 of their last 6 Serie A games at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium.
Prediction
Napoli ran out cosy 4-1 winners when they entertained Udinese in Serie A Matchday 6 in Naples at the end of September. However, that’s only one of two matches that Udinese have conceded 4+ goals this season and this clash at the Bluenergy Stadium should be tighter. Udinese have only leaked more than 2 goals at home in a league match on three occasions this season, and only one of those games was in 2024.
We pointed at Napoli’s defensive weaknesses earlier and the defending Serie A champs have surprisingly not kept a clean sheet for 14 league matches, since drawing 0-0 with Lazio in Rome at the end of January. Even the two lowest scoring teams in Serie A this season, Salernitana and Empoli, both managed to net against Napoli, home and away, which should give Udinese some hope. I expect Napoli to edge this one though, just.