Toulouse vs Marseille: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Following Thursday’s late-night Europa League quarter-final win, Marseille return to Ligue 1 action on Sunday as they visit Toulouse. Kick-off at Stadium Municipal is at 6pm UK time.
Marseille, who enter this round of games in ninth place, were denied twice by the woodwork as September’s reverse fixture at the Stade Vélodrome finished goalless. Toulouse, who sit just two places and three points further back, are seeking a first league victory over their more illustrious rivals since March 2012, and their first at home for more than 17 years.
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Toulouse
Following a dismal 10-match winless streak, head coach Carles Martinez has overseen a steady improvement in his side’s fortunes since the winter break, amassing 22 points from the last 12 matches. That has lifted Toulouse’s overall points per game to 1.24 (9 wins, 9 draws and 11 defeats). Maiden goals from Cristian Cásseres Jr and Moussa Diarra sealed a 2-1 comeback victory last weekend at Rennes.
However, with two-thirds of their wins coming on the road, Les Violets own the fifth-worst home record in Ligue 1, averaging just 1.07 points per game. Their tally of three wins in front of their own fans only surpasses bottom club Clermont, while they have lost five times.
They have both scored and conceded 1.29 goals per home game, from expected goals for (xG) and against (xGA) figures of 1.29 and 1.25, respectively.
An average of 2.57 goals have been scored by both teams in Toulouse’s home fixtures. There have been three or more goals converted by both sides in 57.1% of their matches at Stadium Municipal, including four of the last five, and both teams have scored (BTTS) in 71.4% of their home league games.
Marseille
Before their dramatic Europa League shootout win at home to Benfica, the dream start to head coach Jean-Louis Gasset’s tenure had been starting to sour. Marseille trailed 2-1 on aggregate deep into the second half, before Faris Moumbagna’s header sent the tie into extra-time. The hosts won the shootout 4-2 to knock out the Portuguese giants, conquerors of Toulouse two rounds earlier.
Although facing a Thursday-to-Sunday turnaround, Marseille will look to feed off the energy of ending their five-match losing streak. Now 10 points off the top four, winning the Europa League looks like their only avenue to next season’s Champions League, but they remain within touching distance of fifth place with a game in hand.
In Ligue 1, Marseille average 1.39 points per match (10 wins, 9 draws and 9 defeats). With their form fluctuating all season, they have lost their last three in the league, although two of those reverses came at fortress Lille and against leaders PSG.
Away from the Vélodrome cauldron, the nine-time French champions’ paltry 0.71 points per match represents the top flight’s worst away record. They have netted 1.21 goals per away fixture, from an xG of 1.48, as well as shipping an average of 1.71 (xGA 1.39). Their last away clean sheet in the league was at Lorient a year ago.
Marseille’s away fixtures have produced an average of 2.93 goals per game for both sides—the fifth highest in the top division. Three or more goals have been netted by both sides in 10 (43.5%) of their away games across all competitions, including four of the last five. They have a BTTS record of 57.1% in away league matches.
Prediction
Despite their poor league form and awful away record, Marseille are rated as tentative favourites (20/13 vbet) to take the points. Although these two inconsistent sides drew a blank when they last met, the visitors seem unable to keep away clean sheets, and recent league results for both teams point to goals.