Stuttgart vs Heidenheim: Three Bundesliga betting tips for Friday night

Written by: Felix Morson-Pate

Stuttgart host Heidenheim on Friday evening, with the visitors knowing a bottom-three spot in the Bundesliga will be sealed this weekend if results don't go their way.

Our football data expert Felix Morson-Pate (@felixpatelgop) has taken a closer look at things in Germany and sounded out three betting angles.

Stuttgart vs Heidenheim betting tips for Friday, April 25

Stuttgart to win and over 3.5 goals - 3.38 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

The home side are very worthy strong favourites to turn over a poor Heidenheim here, and I’d expect both keepers to be kept on their toes.

The visitors are slightly better on their travels this term when it comes to finding their scoring boots, whilst Stuttgart have tended to be involved in games with plenty of action at both ends of the pitch.

Stuttgart have kept just the one clean sheet in their past ten league games, whilst their home games have seen an average of 3.53 total goals scored.

Add to that a Heidenheim backline that concedes over two goals a game, and the potential for Friday night fireworks seems on the cards.

Ermedin Demirovic to score anytime - 2.45 (Unibet/BetMGM)

The signing and subsequent form of Ermedin Demirovic has gone someway to helping Stuttgart alleviate the loss of Serhou Guirassy to rivals Dortmund.

The Bosnian forward has 13 Bundesliga goals this season, and has particularly enjoyed himself against Heidenheim’s main relegation rivals in recent weeks, with a hat-trick against Bochum and another goal in just half a game against Holstein Kiel.

Averaging nearly three shots per 90, with nearly half of those finding the target, I’d expect Demirovic to receive plenty of service here against a porous defence.

He’s generally an even money shot elsewhere too, so this looks a very generous price on offer given his seasonal form and facing an opponent where the floodgates could well and truly open.

Paul Wanner 1+ shot on target - 2.62 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

As implied above, I expect Stuttgart to brush Heidenheim aside but they may not do it without receiving a few warning shots.

If attacks are going to come from anywhere, then teenager Wanner seems the likeliest candidate. With forwards Mathias Honsak and Budu Zivzivadze almost certain to miss out, much of the creative burden could fall on the shoulders of the young Bayern Munich loanee.

Wanner has just the three goals this season from 1600 minutes, but crucially for me, when he does manage to get shots off, they tend to be of higher quality. Over two thirds of his efforts have been within the box this season, and he very rarely takes a low value pot shot (save for his spectacular effort that saw him score in the reverse fixture).

With Heidenheim likely to look to sit deep and counter quickly whenever possible, should Wanner find himself with an opportunity to get a shot off, the chances are it’ll be from a fast break with few defenders in his path.

I make him closer to a 2.2 shot here, given the context and the players his side are missing, and most of the other bookies in the market seem inclined to agree.

Felix's three best bets for Stuttgart vs Heidenheim

Stuttgart to win and over 3.5 goals - 3.38 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

Ermedin Demirovic to score anytime - 2.45 (Unibet/BetMGM)

Paul Wanner 1+ shot on target - 2.62 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

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