Southampton vs Stoke City: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Southampton entertain Stoke City in their final home fixture of the season with automatic promotion now out of sight.
The Saints suffered a 5-0 drubbing at Championship leaders Leicester City on Tuesday evening which now leaves them six points adrift of the automatic places with a significantly lower goal difference compared to the teams around them. Southampton now look to the play-offs to secure promotion back to the Premier League next season.
Stoke, meanwhile, are far from safe at the bottom end of the table and know more points are needed if they are to distance themselves from the dreaded relegation zone.
Kick-off is set for 3pm UK time at St. Mary's Stadium.
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Southampton
The home side more than held their own for large parts of the game at the King Power on Tuesday, but four goals conceded in the final half an hour made for a humiliating end to their automatic promotion ambitions. Sitting in fourth-place, they are well out of sight of West Brom in fifth who remain twelve points behind, but three consecutive wins earlier this month left Saints fans dreaming of a late push for a top-two finish.
Nevertheless, while their place in the play-offs is secure, Russell Martin's side can ill-afford more poor results if they are to regain momentum ahead of the play-offs next month. Thankfully for them, their form at home has been imperious throughout the campaign. Southampton have won 15 of their 22 home outings, leaving them with an average of 2.18 points per game, and they haven't lost at home since the middle of February.
Martin's men also stand as the second-highest scorers in the division behind Leicester, and have averaged an impressive 2.45 goals per home match so far. They've failed to score in just one home game, and have scored three or more in 45% of matches at St. Mary's.
Goals conceded have cost them though, with Southampton conceding far higher (61) than the three sides above them. Nevertheless, they've conceded slightly less in home games, with an average of 1.27 so far. Only 27% of these have ended in a Southampton clean sheet.
Stoke City
Steven Schumacher's side have been encouraging lately, losing just one of their last six league matches. They've also collected four points from their last two, both of which came against sides in a similar position in the table. A 3-0 home ousting of Plymouth Argyle last time out gave Potters fans genuine belief that they can maintain their Championship status for next season.
However, they are still only four points above the relegation zone with two matches remaining, and a loss this weekend could make for a nervous final day depending on other results. Points remain vital for Stoke, but their away form this season has been far from convincing.
Losing exactly half of their away fixtures, Stoke have averaged a measly 1.05 points on the road. Two of their six away wins have come in their last five matches, though.
A lack of goals has largely contributed to their poor form, with an average of only 1.09 scored in away fixtures heaping far too much pressure on their defence. 1.5 goals conceded is far from ideal, and considering only 18% of their away matches have ended in a clean sheet, it's little wonder why they've had such little success on their travels.
Prediction
With Southampton's place in the play-offs confirmed, Stoke are the side in dire need of points to ease tensions ahead of the final day. However, the home side have excelled in their matches at St. Mary's this season, and will surely want to prove a point after their drubbing in the East Midlands on Tuesday evening. OddsNow back Southampton to do exactly that and return to winning ways on Saturday afternoon.