PSG vs Toulouse: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Recently-crowned champions PSG hope to bounce back from disappointment in Europe with a win over mid-table Toulouse on Sunday night.
The two sides last met in the French Super Cup in January, where the Parisians won the match 2-0. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time at the Parc des Princes.
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PSG
Luis Enrique will want his side to produce a dominant performance on Sunday in the midst of another Champions League disappointment in midweek, knowing that anything other than a dominant performance will increase pressure on the players and the manager.
PSG’s home record has been poor recently; despite only losing once at home all season in the league, the champions have only won two of their last seven matches in the capital.
However, they still have the joint second-best home record in the league, gaining 2.06 points per game when hosting. This is still a significant drop-off from their 2.47 points per game on the road, though.
The Parc des Princes hosts more goals than any other home ground in the league, with an average of 3.75 total goals per game this season. This is likely due to the output of the PSG attack, which has scored 2.56 goals a game from an expected goals figure (xG) of 1.95.
However, their defence has underperformed, conceding 1.19 goals per game from an expected goals against figure (xGA) of 1.0. This is highlighted by the fact that they have not kept a home clean sheet since November.
Toulouse
Eleventh-placed Toulouse are hoping to end the season on a high. They were unbeaten in five league matches prior to their 2-1 defeat to tenth-placed Montpellier last weekend.
Their away form of late has been particularly impressive, having won six of their last seven on their travels, helping them record the fifth-best away record in the league this season, averaging 1.5 points per game away from home. This is significantly better than their home form, where they have only gained one point per game.
Whilst Toulouse’s attack have been scoring at the expected rate, having scored 1.13 goals on the road from an xG of 1.12, the defence has been overperforming, having conceded only 1.25 goals away from home this season from an xGA figure of 1.52.
Despite their impressive away record, top scorer Thijs Dalinga, who has scored 13 of the 39 goals Toulouse have scored this season (a third of their total output), only has four goals away from home this season. Although he is in good form, having scored in his last two league matches.
Prediction
PSG’s defensive problems have been partly due to significant injuries to key defenders Lucas Hernandez and Presnel Kimpembe, who continue to be unavailable for Luis Enrique.
As a result of having already won the Ligue 1 title, Enrique has been giving chances to players from their academy, including 17-year-olds Senny Malulu and Yoram Zague, who have both started two of the last four league matches. This lack of experience could make it easier for Toulouse to play against them, and it would be hard to see them not scoring in this match.
Despite this, PSG’s attack is blessed with talent and will see this match as a must-win to take the pressure off themselves and the manager following their midweek European woes.