Premier League Top Four race: 66/1 pick ahead of run-in

Things are already looking settled at the top and bottom of the Premier League, but there's still one key market which is yet to be satisfied. 

The race for a spot in next season's Champions League is heating up as we approach the season's final stretch, with a number of sides vying to land a place in the top four. 

Our man Brad Walker (@brad_TWalker) has taken a closer look at the current market leaders and picked out who he thinks will be playing in Europe's premier club competition next season.

Premier League Top Four Market Leaders

Manchester City - 7/10

To say the champions have been poor this season would be an understatement, but City still look poised for a spot in next season's Champions League despite a 2-2 home draw with Brighton on Saturday.

Pep Guardiola's side still have quality in abundance across their squad, particularly in forward areas. Striker Erling Haaland is back among the goals, having netted two in his last three league appearances, and City are also without the distraction of Champions League football from their elimination in the play-offs. 

Ultimately, it's hard to envisage Guardiola's crop not playing in the competition next season, though whether there's value in backing them at a skinny 7/10 remains to be seen.

Nottingham Forest - 7/10

Forest have once again hushed any claims around a potential slip down the table with consecutive wins in their last two outings. 

Nuno Espirito Santo's men came out on top against the aforementioned City and then Ipswich on Saturday, maintaining their position in third and leaving them a healthy five points above Chelsea in fourth. 

Some tough fixtures remain for the Midlanders, including a difficult trip to Aston Villa at the start of next month, but Forest have overall been wholly more convincing than the other sides in this discussion. 

Still, their lack of experience at the business end of the season might put off some from getting on side, especially given they're available at quite a narrow best price of 7/10.

Ready to go again after the international break. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/5yCNPWEikL

— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) March 16, 2025

Chelsea - 7/5

Another unappealing price is on offer for Chelsea, whose form has been dismal since the turn of the year. 

Enzo Maresca's men have recorded a paltry four league wins since the middle of December and failed to caught the eye in a 1-0 loss at Arsenal on Sunday afternoon. 

The Blues registered just 0.36 xG across the 90 minutes, not helped by the absence of talisman Cole Palmer. 

Then again, the Englishman's recent form has hardly helped their plite either. Palmer has failed to score a single goal since January, leaving his side looking incredibly toothless in forward areas. 

Chelsea have only scored more than once in a league game on one occasion since the middle of January, a pattern they'll need to rectify between now and May.

Add the incredibly skinny 7/5 price on offer for them to land a spot in the top four and it's difficult to see the value in backing Maresca to turn their form around.

Newcastle - 5/2

The Magpies will be buoyant following their Carabao Cup triumph over Liverpool on Sunday, but Eddie Howe's side are also eyeing a return to the Champions League for next season.

Newcastle currently sit just two points behind Chelsea in fourth and also boast a game in hand over the Blues. 

Still, recent results haven't been great. Newcastle have lost three of their last five in the league and have been unusually susceptible on home turf, where they've already lost four matches. 

Difficult games against the likes of Villa, Brighton, Chelsea and Arsenal also lie in wait in the final weeks of the campaign. 

All in all, greater consistency will be required if Newcastle are to land a spot among the top four sides.

Five points separate 4th and 10th in the race for European places 🤏 pic.twitter.com/anBZqbpCCo

— Premier League (@premierleague) March 17, 2025

Brighton - 10/1

Fabian Hurzeler's men continued their impressive record against the division's top sides with the aforementioned draw at the Etihad on Saturday.

The result leaves Brighton just two points behind fourth themselves and, unlike some of the sides already mentioned, the Seagulls' tails are up after recent results.

Brighton are now unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions, meaning momentum could well lie with Hurzeler and co. 

Still, some tough outings lie ahead between now and May, particularly in the final weeks where they play Newcastle, Liverpool and Tottenham in their of their last four league games.

Aston Villa - 25/1

Villa's attacking reinforcements from January certainly leave them in with a shout. Forward Marco Asensio has particularly hit the ground running in the Midlands, though questions remain over their leaky defensive record. 

Unai Emery's men have only kept four clean sheets in league games so far and have shipped two or more goals in 14 games home and away.

Injuries haven't helped their cause, but their inability to shut opposition teams out has largely contributed to their current languishing in ninth.

Still, Villa are only four points from fourth and will have the opportunity to gain ground on many of the sides around them between now and the season's end. 

They are still slated to play Brighton, Forest, Man City and Bournemouth, though results in these games may depend on their current Champions League progress.

Villa secured a spot in the quarter-finals but have only won two league matches which have directly followed a European venture. 

Continuing that form could prove fatal to any ambitions of playing in the competition next season.

Your Player of the Month for February:

📞 Marco Asensio 📞 pic.twitter.com/mOq9jhCbms

— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) March 15, 2025

Bournemouth - 66/1

The Cherries have certainly been one of the surprise packages of the season, but recent form has somewhat halted their progress.

Bournemouth haven't won any of their last four in the league, with three of those games ending in defeat.

Still, they were more than competitive in all of those games and also have a favourable run of fixtures coming up, with the highest-placed team across their next five being Fulham (eighth).

Bournemouth also have goals in abundance - only seven sides have scored more than their 48 - and could be worth a poke at maintaining their overall impressive impressive performances this season. 

Fulham - 100/1

Marco Silva's side have also caught the eye this term. Fulham are, as mentioned, currently sitting in eighth and only four points from fourth.

Recent inconsistency has seen them surrender some ground in the race, particularly with the losses to Brighton, Crystal Palace and Manchester United.

And while Fulham certainly have enough quality to compete with any side on their day, some tricky remaining fixtures will likely see them come up short.

The Cottagers are still yet to face Arsenal (A), potential champions Liverpool (H), Bournemouth (A) and City (H).

Ultimately, while they have impressed, I can't envisage them getting over the line and securing a spot in the top four.

Brad Walker's Premier League top four betting tip

The race for a spot in the top four is certainly one to keep an eye on between now and May, particularly when considering the landscape at the top and bottom of the table. 

Still, that 66/1 price on offer for Bournemouth looks a tad too wide for me. Andoni Iraola's side have struggled in terms of results recently but I think their performances in those games has been admirable. 

They also have some favourable, on paper at least, fixtures coming up and have been overall more convincing than a lot of the sides around them. Not only would Bournemouth in the Champions League make for a great story, but it is one which certainly looks worth backing given the current market layout.