Premier League 2023/24 Relegation - Betting Odds:

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Written by: Bradley Walker

With just over three months remaining in the Premier League 2023/24 season, nerves are ramping up at the bottom end of the table as teams look to avoid the drop. 

The three newly-promoted sides from last season currently occupy those three dreaded positions. Sheffield United (20th) and Burnley (19th) already find themselves eleven points adrift of safety after 26 matches, while Luton Town remain four points behind 17th-placed Nottingham Forest after 25 matches. 

Forest find themselves in a sticky position having won just once in their last five matches, and are a point behind Brentford (16th) and Everton (15th). The latter received a significant boost to their survival prospects after their initial ten-point deduction for financial breaches was reduced to six earlier this week. 

Who is favourite to go down? 

Unsurprisingly, the three sides currently occupying the relegation places are odds-on favourites for a return to the Championship next season. All three have struggled to repeat the same level of football which earned them a spot in the top division, with an average of just 1.26 points per match between them. 

Despite the disappointing showings of Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton however, the sides above them will be far from comfortable as we head down the season's final stretch. 

A concerning run in form for both Nottingham Forest and Brentford have propelled them into a relegation fight, while both Everton and Bournemouth are winless in their last five matches. 

Sheffield United - 1/20

The Blades are odds-on favourite for a return to the Championship next season. BetFair Exchange have Chris Wilder's side at 1/20 with an implied probability of a whopping 95.2% chance of relegation. 

A dismal return of 0.85 goals per game combined with 2.54 goals conceded has seen them win just three matches so far as they sit eleven points adrift of safety. 

Failure to replace key departures in Sander Berge and Iliman Ndiaye left them at a huge disadvantage to begin with and cost Paul Heckingbottom his job in December after a poor start which included an 8-0 home defeat to Newcastle United. 

Burnley - 3/20

Vincent Kompany's side ran rampant in the Championship last season as they topped the table with 101 points, losing only three games in the process. The Clarets have failed to make the jump up to Premier League level however and have spent large portions of the seaosn languishing in the bottom three.

Midnite offer Burnely at 3/20 to go down with an implied probability of 86.96% of Kompany and co returning to the second tier.

An ambitious, or perhaps naive, style of football has cost them dearly and if not for Kompany's heroics in his first season in charge his job may be under greater threat than it already is. 

Luton Town - 8/13

Midnite also offer Luton Town at 8/13 with an implied probability of 61.5% for them to return to the Championship after just one season in the Premier League. There can be no doubting that Rob Edwards' side have shown the greatest amount of promise out of the three sides who entered the division last season and Luton fans might have even taken being just four points adrift at this stage. 

Impressive showings against some of the league's biggest hitters at Kenilworth Road have no doubt provided hope for the Hatters. Narrow defeats at home to Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham rightly earned them praise, as did a 1-1 home draw with Liverpool which saw Luis Diaz equalise for the away side in the final minutes of the game. 

Luton have averaged 1.4 goals per game with Elijah Adebayo and Carlton Morris combining for a total of 16 in the first 25 games. Out of the three sides who joined the league this year, Luton are (somewhat surprisingly) looking the most likely to avoid the drop. 

Nottingham Forest - 11/5 

The two-time European Cup winners are 11/5 with Midnite to return to the Championship with an implied probability of 31.25%.

The African Cup of Nations couldn't have arrived at a worse time for the East Midlanders. The continental tournament saw five of their key players unavailable for selection as Ibrahim Sangare, Wily Boly, Ola Aina, Moussa Niakhate and Serge Aurier departed to represent their countries. 

Forest's form since has been stark with Nuno Espirito Santo's side having won just once since their 2-1 home victory over Manchester United at the end of December. A 2-0 win over West Ham at the City Ground cushioned the blow earlier this month but their latest outing, a 4-2 away defeat to Aston Villa, sees them edge uncomfortably closer to the bottom three. 

Aina, Boly and Sangare all returned from AFCON with injuries while Chris Wood and Nuno Tavares are also unavailable. Forest also have the little matter of a visit from table-topping Liverpool to contend with this weekend as they desperately clamber away from a return to the Championship. 

Everton - 15/2 

The Toffees were granted a huge boost to their survival hopes this week when their initial ten-point deduction was reduced to six after an appeal to the Premier League. The extra four points saw them climb above Brentford into 15th ahead of the Bees' visit to West Ham on Monday, and but for the deduction Sean Dyche's side would find themselves in 13th place. 

A worrying drop in form in recent weeks will no doubt have Everton fans concerned however, and SkyBet have them at 15/2 to go down with an implied probability of 11.8%. The Merseysiders will more than likely survive as the side possesses a quality of player which is simply not among the teams currently occupying the relegation spaces, but their fans will be hoping for an uptake in form sooner rather than later, starting with their hosting of former manager David Moyes and West Ham. 

Brentford - 14/1 

Thomas Frank and Brentford have been a refreshing addition to the Premier League last season as they cruised to a 13th and 9th place finishes in their first two campaigns in the top-flight. The third has however been much more burdensome, with injuries to key players and the long-term suspension of goalscorer Ivan Toney seeing the Bees' continue to creep down the table.

While it would be far too premature to declare the situation a crisis, Brentford's current predicament has certainly been their most troublesome spell since securing promotion in May 2021. Midnite have them at 14/1 to see the drop this season which carries an implied probability of only 6.7% - something the other teams in this list would snatch both hands off for if given the chance. 

The return of Toney, which has seen the Englishman bag four goals in seven matches, also provides hope that Frank's side can begin to turn their form around and secure a fourth successful spell in England's top division. 

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