Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Paris Saint-Germain host FC Barcelona in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League quarter-final at the Parc des Princes on Wednesday night.
PSG clinched second in Group F, otherwise referred to as “The Group of Death,” recording the same number of points as third-placed Milan but securing a marginally better GD. The Parisians then comfortably dispatched of Real Sociedad of Spain in the Round of 16 with a 4-1 aggregate score, (2-0, 1-2), with Kylian Mbappe demonstrating his world-class capabilities with three of those four goals.
On the other hand, Barcelona finished top of Group H with 12 points, despite pitiful defeats when visiting minnows Shakhtar Donetsk and Antwerp. Barca’s impressive combination of youth and experience enabled them to eventually conquer Napoli 4-2 on aggregate in the previous round.
PSG will be keen to attain European glory and finally move past their anguish of one of the most incredible comebacks in Champions League history in the 2016/17 season. The second leg saw the French giants knocked out following a 6-1 away loss in Spain, despite heading into the game with a 4-0 lead after the first leg.
Recent Form
PSG
Paris Saint-Germain have demonstrated satisfactory form this campaign, albeit nothing too spectacular, particularly given the standards of their domestic league. The Parisians have not tasted defeat since a narrow 2-1 loss to Milan in the Champions League on November 7th 2023, and you would have to go back even further to when they last surrendered three points in the French division; losing 3-2 at home to Nice on September 15th.
Since triumphing in their opening leg against Real Sociedad, PSG are unbeaten in nine fixtures (W5, D4). They top Ligue 1 with 63 points, and despite being winless in over 35% of their domestic fixtures thus far (P28, W18, D9, L1), they still find themselves 12 points clear of closest ‘challengers’ Stade Brest, perhaps giving testament to the subpar standards of the French league.
PSG will be buoyed by their splendid home form in the Champions League thus far this campaign. A commendable average of 2.5 points per game (W3, D1, L0) at home after triumphing in 75% of their home fixtures will rightfully excite the Parisian supporters.
Their average PPG of 1.75 is solely hindered by their inferior away form (W1, D1, L2). They can boast an impressive xG of 1.95 and xGA of 0.95 in front of their home faithful, in comparison to a mediocre xG of 1.69 and xGA of 1.68 respectively on the road. The Parisians have proved to be defensively astute at home too, keeping a clean sheet in 75% of their home fixtures and conceding an average of 0.25 goals per match at the Parc des Princes.
Barcelona will be wary of the goal-scoring threat they face ahead of their trip to Paris; Luis Enrique’s side have registered 13 goals so far this European campaign.
Barcelona
Barcelona have been in exemplary form since drawing to Napoli in the first leg of their round-of-sixteen clash. The Catalan club are unbeaten in seven fixtures across all competitions (W5, D2), including stellar results against Getafe and rivals Atletico Madrid. Barca last registered a defeat on January 27th, losing 5-3 at home to Villarreal.
In contrast to their recent form, Barcelona domestically have been underwhelming, with manager Xavi’s resignation confirmed at the end of the current campaign. They find themselves second in the league, eight points behind Real Madrid, and have suffered Supercopa and Copa Del Ray heartbreak to Real Madrid and Atletico Bilbao respectively.
They have, however, impressed in their European exploits thus far this campaign. Xavi’s side can boast an average of two points per game (W5, D1, L2) and have triumphed in 63% of their matches so far.
However, PSG will be motivated by their opponents’ poor away record in the CL this season, certainly compared to their perfect home record. Averaging a medicore one point per game (W1, D1, L2) will give the Parisians encouragement of securing victory over the Spanish giants on Wednesday night.
Barca's forwards have demonstrated their clinical nature in front of goal so far, registering an impressive 16 goals this season in Europe with an average of two per match. They also boast an impressive expected goal (xG) tally of 1.98 so far, though this drops to 1.61 on their travels. Failing to score in 25% of their away fixtures will yield further encouragement for the Parisians ahead of Barca’s visit to the capital.
Aside from a 25% clean sheet record on their travels, Barcelona have been largely competent defensively, boasting an average expected goal against (xGA) tally of 1.11 and conceding 1.25 goals per match. In fact, their defensive record proves similar to their home demonstrations, affirming their defensive capabilities regardless of the venue.
Prediction
PSG, given the venue and their impressive form, predictably enter the tie as firm favourites. The absence of goal-scoring prowess at the Parc des Princes has been evident across the campaign, however Kylian Mbappe is capable of just about anything and FC Barcelona have demonstrated their clinical finishing on numerous occasions this season, and they face an opponent with a penetrable defence.
Given the respective strengths and weaknesses of these two European juggernauts and the unpredictability at how they might swing the favour of the tie, OddsNow is backing both sides to find the net in a high-scoring encounter and Mbappe to be ruthless on the night.