Nottingham Forest vs Fulham: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest host Fulham in an attempt to gain three valuable points on way to securing Premier League safety.
Forest will be eager to avoid a repeat of the humiliating 5-0 loss in the reverse fixture at Craven Cottage earlier this season.
Both sides earned a point in their previous domestic fixtures. A 1-1 result against Crystal Palace enabled Forest to move out of the relegation zone in their first game since their four-point Premier League deduction. Fulham required a late resurgence against Sheffield United in a thrilling 3-3 draw, with Rodrigo Muniz’s fantastic injury-time leveller sparing the blushes for Marco Silva’s side.
Recent Form
Nottingham Forest
Forest were docked four points on March 18 for breaching the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules, and dropped into the relegation zone as a result. Additionally, their results lately have proved troubling for the Forest faithful and their consistent subpar performances is a testament to their current poor league position.
Forest’s last league triumph came against West Ham on February 17 with a 2-0 home victory. Forest have since struggled and are winless in their last five domestic fixtures. Prior to their latest two consecutive 1-1 draws against Luton and Crystal Palace, Forest succumbed to three successive defeats against Aston Villa, Liverpool and Brighton.
Forest’s overall win percentage of 20% and an average 0.87 points per game (W6, D8, L16) coincides with their disappointing league predicament. Nevertheless, the Forest supporters can take some comfort in their home form, where they've averaged 1.07 points per game so far (W4, D4, L7).
Forest have averaged an overall expected goal (xG) tally of 0.96 and recorded 1.20 goals scored per match. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have averaged an xG of 1.01 at home, and have proven particularly proficient in their output on home soil, with 1.33 goals scored per match. They have only failed to score in 20% of their fixtures at the City Ground this campaign.
However, their defensive fragilities will concern the Forest faithful. An xGA of 1.47 in front of their home support this campaign will undoubtedly encourage Fulham. Forest have conceded 52 goals this campaign thus far with 1.73 goals conceded per match; conceding a goal on average every 52 minutes. They have only managed four clean sheets all season.
Where is your club? pic.twitter.com/t0moEvXX6R
— Premier League (@premierleague) April 1, 2024
Fulham
Fulham’s 3-3 draw at Sheffield United and their narrow 2-1 defeat at Wolves on March 9 has not taken away from some impressive victories of late. A 2-1 triumph against Manchester United at Old Trafford on February 24 and two 3-0 victories since against two European-chasing sides in Tottenham and Brighton have highlighted their strengths.
The Cottagers currently occupy the 12th position in the Premier League, a point clear of Bournemouth having played a game more. Breaching the top-half of the table and overtaking 11th positioned Chelsea remains the objective for Marco Silva’s side. Doing so will prove a tough ask, however, with Fulham currently a point adrift of Chelsea having played two more games.
Fulham have averaged 1.3 points per game thus far, scoring 1.53 goals per match whilst conceding an average of 1.57 goals per fixture. Forest can take comfort from Fulham’s dismal away form in domestic fixtures, though; they have secured three points on their travels on just two occasions all season, only winning one of their last 14 PL away fixtures (D5, L8).
Fulham average an underwhelming 0.73 points per game on the road (W2, D5, L8) compared to a far superior 1.87 at home. They have won 37% of their away matches this season, with a lowly win percentage of just 13%. Marco Silva’s side have only kept clean sheets in 13% of their away matches so far and average an xGA of 1.74, conceding a worrying 2.13 goals per match on their travels.
Prediction
Forest no doubt perform better on home turf and have made habit of finding the back of the net in home fixtures this season. Combined with Fulham's leaky defence on the road and struggles scoring in away fixtures, a home victory looks the sensible shout on the moneyline.
Fixtures at the City Ground have also averaged a total of 2.93 goals this campaign, while Fulham's away matches have seen an average of 3.27 so far, meaning more goals can be expected in this one on Tuesday evening.