Monaco vs Lille: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Top-four sides Monaco and Lille face-off in Ligue 1 in a big fixture in the race for the Champions League spots on Wednesday. Kick-off at Stade Louis II is at 8pm UK time.
First half goals from Ivan Cavaleiro and Bafodé Diakité eased Lille to a 2-0 win in October’s reverse fixture. However, they will need to record their first victory at Monaco since December 2009 to complete the double.
Recent Form
Monaco
With PSG seemingly set to canter to their ninth title in 11 seasons, second-placed Monaco figure in another ‘best of the rest’ clash following Sunday’s stormy 2-0 victory over Brest. A curled strike from Denis Zakaria and a VAR-awarded goal by Takumi Minamino earned Monaco a huge three points on Sunday to leapfrog their hosts in the table, although it came at a cost—Eliesse Ben Seghir and Wilfried Singo both seeing red in stoppage time.
Monaco have taken 55 points from 29 league games (16 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats). They are comfortably the division’s second highest goalscorers, behind the runaway leaders, but only eight clubs have shipped goals at a faster rate. They have scored 1.9 goals per match from an expected goals (xG) of 1.72, and conceded 1.31 (xGA 1.38).
Les Rouge et Blanc are unbeaten in seven fixtures spanning more than two months since a home defeat to Toulouse. However, that masks a recent drop-off in home form which leaves them with a considerably stronger record away from the Principality. Their 1-0 victory over Rennes at Stade Louis II earlier this month was their first home win in a run of seven matches dating back to December 3.
Monaco’s average of 1.71 points per home game is just the seventh-best record in the top flight. They have under-performed in front of goal to net an average 1.5 goals per home match from an xG of 1.78, while they have conceded 0.93 goals per home game (xGA 1.22). Adi Hütter’s side are a Jekyll and Hyde outfit; there have been 3.21 goals scored by both teams in their matches—the highest in Ligue 1 entering the gameweek. However, in matches in front of their own fans, that figure drops sharply to a below average 2.43. They have also kept clean sheets in 43% of their home fixtures.
Lille
Lille’s first away outing domestically in over a month is nevertheless their third game in a run of four during an energy-sapping 10 days. A trio of home wins in Ligue 1 book-ended their Europa Conference League quarter-final defeat to Aston Villa, which went the maximum distance over two legs.
Their latest victory, 1-0 on Sunday against Strasbourg, came courtesy of top scorer Jonathan David’s 16th goal of the season. It cemented them in fourth place, a point behind Brest with a game in hand, and three points would also move them above their hosts on goal difference.
Lille have collected 52 points from 29 matches (14 wins, 10 draws, 5 defeats) for an average points per game of 1.79. They have scored 1.48 goals per match from an xG of 1.45, and boast the league’s third-strongest defence, having shipped 0.86 goals per match (xGA 1.12).
Like their hosts, Les Dogues are on a decent unbeaten run (six league matches) which hides contrasting fortunes at home and on the road. Last month’s 1-0 win at Reims was the first time they had taken three points back to Stade Pierre-Mauroy in a run of six away matches since November. And while they have the best home record in the division, Lille’s away return places them in the lower half of the table. Nevertheless, they are hard to beat; only Paris St Germain have lost fewer games, and half of their 14 road fixtures have ended in draws. They also never know when they are beaten, having grabbed stoppage-time equalisers against Rennes, Nice and PSG.
Paulo Fonseca’s side average 1.14 points per away outing, with a modest 1 goal scored per game, from an xG of 1.24, and 1.21 average goals against (xGA 1.25). Their away games tend to be tight: going into this fixture round, only four Ligue 1 clubs have scored less than their 14, while only five have conceded less than their 17. Their average of 2.21 goals scored by both teams in away matches is the fourth lowest in the division. There have been 2 goals or less scored in 64.3% of their away games.
Prediction
Despite their unconvincing home form, AS Monaco are 5/4 favourites (Coral) to extend their unbeaten league run at the expense of Lille’s. While they have had to contend with their heavier schedule, Lille are tough to beat, and this fixture has been drawn seven of the last 11 times in the Principality.