Manchester United vs Sheffield United: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Manchester United welcome relegation-haunted Sheffield United across the Pennines in the Premier League on Wednesday.
A second-half Diogo Dalot strike saw Erik Ten Hag’s side notch a 2-1 victory in October’s return fixture, after an Oli McBurnie penalty had replied to Scott McTominay’s opening goal. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time at Old Trafford.
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Manchester United
Manchester United’s logic-defying FA Cup semi-final penalty win against Coventry City provides the main sub-plot to this fixture. United were cruising towards a final rematch with neighbours Manchester City after 70 minutes following goals from McTominay, Harry Maguire and Bruno Fernandes at Wembley. But, as has been the case so often in recent matches, United’s cohesion fell apart as their Championship opponents launched a stirring late fightback to take the tie into extra-time at 3-3, and then saw last-gasp winner celebrations cruelly chalked off by a VAR offside decision. There were further plot twists in the shootout before the Red Devils finally prevailed 4-2.
It would be generous to describe United’s form in the Premier League as patchy; they have taken three points just once in their past seven encounters. Their most recent victory was a 2-0 home defeat of Everton in early March. They enter the midweek round of games seventh in the division. Ten Hag’s team have won 15, drawn 5 and lost 12 of their 32 matches, producing 1.56 points per game.
United have struggled defensively, mustering just two league clean sheets and shipping 27 goals in their last 15 outings. They also conceded 2+ goals in 10 of those games. They have netted 1.47 goals per game—exactly in line with their expected goals (xG) of 1.47—and conceded 1.5 from an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.74 (the league’s fourth highest).
At home, United have amassed 1.73 points per match—the ninth-best home record in the league going into the midweek round. Goals have not exactly flowed either: their 1.53 goals average (xG 1.66) in their home stadium is the joint 11th most. The 20-time champions have conceded 1.47 goals per home match and own the division’s joint fourth worst xGA in home fixtures of 1.54.
Despite performances often falling below expectations, Manchester United have only been beaten once at home in 2024, and they took satisfaction from their two most recent Old Trafford engagements both against old rivals Liverpool: a 2-2 league draw, and a dramatic 4-3 cup win in overtime.
A dramatic ending to a dramatic game 🤩
— Emirates FA Cup (@EmiratesFACup) April 22, 2024
Watch the full penalty-shootout between @Coventry_City and @ManUtd 👀#EmiratesFACup pic.twitter.com/k1xiW63O4c
Sheffield United
Any realistic hopes Sheffield United held of pulling off a relegation great escape were surely extinguished by Saturday’s desperate 4-1 home defeat at the hands of fellow strugglers Burnley. A Gustavo Hamer beauty proved a mere consolation as the Blades fell seven points behind Vincent Kompany’s side and 10 points adrift of safety with games fast running out.
Sheffield United’s Premier League record makes for ugly reading; Chris Wilder’s team have managed just 16 points (3 wins, 7 draws, 23 defeats) for an average of 0.48 points per match. They have scored 0.7 goals per game from an xG of 0.85, and conceded a whopping, league-high 2.67 goals per game (xGA 1.92).
The Blades average 0.38 points per road game, with a 3-1 win at Luton in February the only time they have taken maximum points away. That was also their only league victory since early December. They have scored 0.81 goals per away fixture, from an xG of 0.74, and conceded 2.31 (xGA 1.96).
The average number of goals scored by both sides in Sheffield United’s matches is 3.61, the third highest in the division. Away from Bramall Lane, the corresponding figure is 3.13. Chris Wilder’s side have shipped 2+ goals in 12 of their 16 (75%) away fixtures.
Prediction
Having narrowly avoided a febrile Old Trafford by saving their Wembley skins, Manchester United are heavy favourites to get back to winning ways in the league. However, the odds (3/10, various) produce a minimal return on the moneyline bet.
Given the regularity with which the visitors concede multiple goals, coupled with the hosts’ regular inability to prevent shots raining in on their goal, we fancy a high-scoring affair.