Juventus vs Fiorentina: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Findlay Brown

Juventus welcome Fiorentina on Sunday evening as they find themselves in a mini-crisis in Serie A. Fiorentina have also struggled in the league of late but both come into this game with midweek wins in the Coppa Italia.

Kick-off is set for 7:45pm UK time. 

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Juventus

A season that began so well, with only one loss in their first 21, has now turned into a fight to secure a place for next season’s Champions League. Juventus have just one win in their last nine, but will take confidence from a 1-0 win over Lazio in the Coppa Italia semi-final first leg in the week. 

Defence has not necessarily been their downfall, outperforming an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.04 with an average of 0.67 per home game, and they have managed clean sheets in almost half their games at the Juventus Stadium.

Unfortunately, they have found goals harder to come by when hosting. Not only are they underperforming their home expected goal (xG) tally of 1.58 with an average of 1.47 scored, they are also only ranked eighth in the league for home goals scored. This is lower than 17th placed Frosinone. 

With second-placed AC Milan now 6 points away, they will need to turn draws (which have accounted for 33% of home results) into wins if they are to at least consolidate third place. Fourth-placed Bologna are hot on their heels, with just two points separating the two sides.

Fiorentina

The away side have struggled in the league since the start of 2024 and have recorded just two wins in their last ten. They now sit tenth in Serie A and suffered a 2-1 home defeat to Milan last weekend. Fiorentina did however pickup a win in the Coppa Italia during midweek, beating Atalanta 1-0. 

Manager Vincenzo Italiano will be disappointed with his team’s away form, with Fiorentina winning just 29% of fixtures on the road compared to 50% at home. 

Their limited attacking output has played a key role, with them averaging just 1.07 goals away from home compared to an xG of 1.39. They have also failed to score in 43% of those games.

Fiorentina have been more reliably defensively, though; their 17 goals conceded away is the joint fourth lowest in the league, but they are barely outperforming their xGA of 1.23 with 1.21 conceded on average. 

Prediction

Juventus have performed well overall at the Allianz Arena this season, recording just one defeat there in Serie A so far. Though they've struggled for form as of late, Fiorentina have been far from convincing themselves and are languishing in mid-table. 

Inspection of their away form makes it even more difficult to back the Florence outfit. OddsNow back Juventus to secure their second victory of the week following their success in the Coppa Italia.  

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