Ipswich Town vs Middlesbrough: Betting Odds & Prediction

Promotion-chasing Ipswich Town host ninth-placed Middlesbrough on Saturday afternoon at Portman Road in a must-win game for both sides.

Ipswich are currently second in the Championship table, only behind league leaders Leicester on goal difference and one point ahead of third-placed Leeds. Ninth-placed Middlesborough are six points off the play-offs, and anything other than a win would likely end their play-off dreams this season. 

The reverse fixture ended in a 2-0 Ipswich win. Kick-off is set for 3pm UK time.

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Ipswich Town

After a run of nine wins from ten games, Ipswich are now without a win in two, having not scored in two consecutive league games, and relinquishing top spot in the Championship to Leicester. Their most recent outing, a 0-0 home draw to Watford, was a shock result as it was only the second time that Ipswich have not scored at Portman Road all season.

Portman Road has been a fortress for The Tractor Boys this season and has been the principal reason behind their promotion push. Kieran McKenna’s side have gained 2.38 points per game at home and have only lost there once all season – the second-best home record in the Championship.

They have scored a staggering 56 home goals this season, eight more than any other side and double the amount they have scored on their travels this season, highlighting their confidence when playing at their home ground. However, unsurprisingly, their 2.67 home goals per game is a massive overperformance, with their expected goals (xG) tally suggesting that they should’ve scored 1.83 home goals a game.

Despite their amazing offensive power, their defence has not been as impressive, conceding the joint-third most home goals in the Championship. Their defence has significantly underperformed, conceding 1.48 goals per match from an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.14.

Fans at Portman Road have continued to be entertained all season, with the average number of goals scored per match at Portman Road standing at 4.14 – more than at any other ground in the league.

Middlesbrough

The away side are on a great run of form, unbeaten in eight matches heading into Saturday’s match, and are now only three places and six points off an unlikely playoff spot. The major reason behind this play-off push has been the improvement of their defence, having kept five clean sheets in their last eight matches.

However, Boro’s away matches tend to see a lot more entertainment than their home matches, with their away matches averaging 3.33 total goals scored a game, a massive increase from the 2.14 total goals scored per game at home. 

Boro have the sixth-best away record in the league, gaining 1.48 points per game on their travels. However, their attack has been overperforming, scoring 1.71 goals per away game from an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.4. 

Their defence is much less impressive on the road than at home. They have gained five fewer clean sheets away from home and conceded 1.62 goals per game from an expected goals against figure of 1.41.

Prediction

Ipswich need to win this match. With both their title rivals, Leicester and Leeds, playing teams 18th and below in the league, it is likely that Ipswich will have to win to stay on course for automatic promotion. 

Whilst Boro are formidable opposition and are in great form, they tend to be a lot more open on their travels, which falls into free-flowing Ipswich’s hands. Michael Carrick’s side have only failed to score in three of their 21 away matches so far this season, so they will likely score against an attack-heavy Ipswich side.

OddsNow's Pick: Ipswich Town to win & BTTS (23/10 @ Betfair)