Gab Sutton weekly: Why Charlton for automatic promotion at 11/1 is the value play

Charlton Athletic are 11/1 with Betfred for a top two finish in League One.

On paper, it’s right that they’re outsiders, seeing as Nathan Jones’ side are five points off with nine games to play, while Wycombe are in pole position on goal difference, and Wrexham have comfortably the most favourable run-in.

Form, however, is extremely significant.

Since mid-December, the Addicks have accrued a whopping 42 points from 18 games, 2.33 PPG which, if maintained, would land them on 87 points.

In that same timeframe, Wycombe have taken 28 points from 18 games, 1.55 PPG, as they approach an uncertain period, entering the business end with a head coach with negligible experience of senior football, unproven beyond the developmental phase, integrating 10 senior players who arrived in the January window.

The Chairboys are without the manager who got them to this position, Matt Bloomfield, and haven’t won back-to-back games since November.

Wrexham’s form is only incrementally superior, again in the same timeframe, with Phil Parkinson’s side taking 30 points from 17 games, 1.76 PPG.

The Red Dragons rely largely on the wide areas to create chances, making them predictable at times, and while they have a rock solid defensive unit led by the likes of Arthur Okonkwo in goal, who’s saves at Adams Park were imperative, emerging talent Max Cleworth at the back and the tenacious George Dobson in midfield, they aren’t always extremely convincing as a top two side.

The Welsh outfit have lost five in 13 since the turn of the year and, since early September, all bar three of their 17 league victories have come by a one-goal margin.

So, yes, they have a manager in Parkinson who has got over the line before with Colchester, Bradford and Bolton, but it feels like a team that might go up almost by default, in the absence of a serious challenger that grabs the promotion race by the horns.

Charlton, however, might just be that team.

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The South Londoners boast one of the top centre-backs in League One in Lloyd Jones, one of the top right-backs in Kayne Ramsay, who triggers the flip from a 5-4-1 out of possession shape to 4-2-3-1 in-possession, by switching from right centre-back to right-back.

Thierry Small, on the left, meanwhile, has more attacking freedom to show his prodigious talents, liking up with homegrown prospect Tyreece Campbell.

Conor Coventry provides intelligence, class and assurance at the base of midfield like a young Carrick, alongside the all-action Greg Docherty and Luke Berry, while Matty Godden and Miles Leaburn vie for the number nine spot.

Plenty of depth, but still a tight-knit squad without the excessive options that other promotion rivals might have, Charlton look a serious runner.

And, while they might be 11/1 best-price right now, that could shorten if they win at Peterborough this weekend, because they have a great chance to close the gap with Wycombe out of action, and Wrexham hosting Stockport.

The Hatters are in the conversation themselves, sitting just a solitary point behind Charton, and Dave Challinor’s side are used to winning - but they possibly miss the profile of player required in certain areas, having come such a long way in a short period.

That 11/1 looks a great price for Charlton; it implies a probability of 8.3%, when realistically the true probability of the Addicks making the jump is at least three times that figure.