Gab Sutton weekly: 6/5 League One relegation accumulator

We might still have 10 games left to play, but the League One relegation dogfight still feels like something of a done deal.

The team in the drop zone with the most points are Burton Albion, with 33 from 36 games, whereas the team outside it with the fewest are Peterborough, with 39 from 35.

In this instance, the gap for the Brewers is as big as six points, and that’s presuming the side above them lose their game in hand.

However, most in the Posh camp are confident of securing their League One status with the quality of fit again Kwame Poku, plus Mallik Mothersille and Ricky-Jade Jones, all of whom have chipped in with the big numbers this season.

Meanwhile, Darren Ferguson’s side have improved defensively of late thanks to the additions of Sam Hughes and Tayo Edun, while the young group have responded with surprising defiance to the 5-1 drubbing by Lincoln, and the Scot’s subsequent comments that it’s the softest group he’s ever worked with.

Darren Ferguson spoke to Posh+ ahead of the Cambridgeshire derby on Saturday, discussing team selection, what he expects from the game, the importance of doing the basics right and more.#pufc | Pre-match interviews brought to you by @BigMotoringWrld.

— Peterborough United (@theposh) March 13, 2025

So, Peterborough should be fine, in which case, in practice, the gap for Burton to safety, in practice, is more like eight points, to Northampton and Mansfield.

The Cobblers are unlikely to drop, having found some solid foundations under Kevin Nolan, although Mansfield could be vulnerable, with Nigel Clough’s side winless in their last 13 league games, having been hit badly by injury.

If the Stags are more catchable than Peterborough, though, then the gap for Crawley, Cambridge and Shrewsbury is effectively 11, 12 and 13 points off safety respectively, rather than nine, 10 and 11, which would already be a huge gap.

It’s hard to write off a Gareth Ainsworth team, ever, because of his ability to inspire positivity in the toughest of circumstances, but for the Shrews it really does look like the gap could be too big.

One point better off than the division’s bottom side, Cambridge might have given themselves a squeak, had they built on the back-to-back wins that followed the returns of Mark Bonner and Neil Harris, as Director of Football and Head Coach respectively.

However, the U’s have since lost their last three, and need to win Saturday’s Cambridgeshire derby with Peterborough to give themselves even a glimmer of hope.

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Crawley have one more point than Harris’ side, but having leaked the most goals in League One, 66 in 36 games, they’ve not played in a way that gives them the best chance of getting results with the limited calibre of player they have in their squad.

With three more points to their name than the Red Devils, Burton Albion have a chance, you’d think, having accrued all bar 24 of their 36 points since Gary Bowyer took charge in mid-December.

Jon Dadi Bodvarsson has made a huge difference to the East Staffordshire outfit’s attack after joining in January, bringing strength, industry, refined hold-up play, and quality in front of goal.

It’s a horrendous run-in, though, for Bowyer’s side, who still have to face six of the top nine in their remaining 10 games; a mammoth ask.

So, the relegation dogfight feels like a closed shop, baring continued capitulation from Mansfield and an astonishing Burton revival.

However, if we go to LiveScore Bet, an accumulator of Shrewsbury for relegation at 1/9, Cambridge at 2/15, Crawley at 11/50 and Burton at 11/25, would give us a 6/5 acca.

If we put a £10 bet on it, the bet would return £22.12!

Gab Sutton's EFL relegation accumulator selections