Gab Sutton weekly: Why Crawley are still value for relegation at 8/15

Crawley’s five-point gap to safety is bridgeable on paper, given that they’re two good weekends away from climbing out of the drop zone with 14 games to play – and a game in hand on three of their relegation rivals.

However, Rob Elliot’s side aren’t quite showing enough signs of resurgence at the crucial stage, having won just two of their last 14 league outings.

Poached from Gateshead, Elliot wants attractive, possession-based football, but that could work against the Red Devils, given that they have a squad that’s weaker on paper than the rest of the league.

The Sussex outfit have conceded 58 goals in 32 games this season, which is the most in the division.

Meanwhile, Gary Bowyer at Burton, Gareth Ainsworth at Shrewsbury and now Neil Harris at Cambridge – the other three managers in the relegation zone – all have a history of getting results in the EFL, and certainly in Ainsworth and Harris’ case, have built teams that can perform well above the sum of their parts.

None of those three are likely to ever get jobs at the top level, so they’re not occupied by the compulsion to play a certain way in order to look good to those higher up. That probably works in their favour with a limited squad in a dogfight.

Bowyer has overseen 20 points from his first 15 games in charge of the Brewers, an exponential improvement on their form under Mark Robinson, who had been instructed by owners Nordic Football Group to play a certain way – whereas his successor came with assurances that wouldn’t be the case, which has given them a chance.

Plus, while the likes of goalkeeper Max Crocombe and defenders Udoka Godwin-Malife and Ryan Sweeney have been extremely reliable for the East Staffordshire outfit, they’ve also benefited from the emerging strike-pairing of the industrious Jón Daði Böðvarsson and the athletic Rumarn Burrell.

Meanwhile, Chelsea recruit Charlie Webster has been a revelation in midfield, securing the win at Lincoln in injury-time last weekend with a sublime left-footed strike.

So, Burton are in there fighting and their PPG return since Bowyer took charge, if continued, would get them to 49 points which would give them a chance of staying up, depending on other results.

Similarly, Shrewsbury have been hit by three successive home defeats but it would take a fool to write off a Gareth Ainsworth team, simply because of his ability to motivate his side at the crunch point of a season.

Plus, the Shrews face four of the five sides immediately above them in their upcoming games, which represents an excellent opportunity to gain ground.

And, while Cambridge have more of an outside chance of beating the drop, currently eight points adrift, they do look like a different proposition since Garry Monk left, with former managers Mark Bonner and Neil Harris returning to the club as Director of Football and Head Coach respectively.

Harris gained 18 points from 13 games in his previous spell with the U’s last season, before returning to Millwall, and has already started his second spell with a 2-0 victory over promotion contenders Stockport.

Bonner and Harris seem to already have a strong rapport between them based on early media appearances, so the feel-good factor seems to be returning to the Abbey.

So, all three of Crawley’s relegation rivals that are in the drop zone look better equipped to rally to safety.

Meanwhile, five points separate themselves and 20^th-placed Peterborough, who won 1-0 at Huddersfield last weekend after some improved performances, with seven points accrued from their last five.

Elsewhere, Bristol Rovers have recruited an excellent in-possession coach in Iñigo Calderón, poached from Brighton, and Northampton, an excellent out-of-possession coach in Kevin Nolan, from West Ham.

Exeter have one of the best goalkeepers in League One, in Joe Whitworth, on loan from Crystal Palace, and while Mansfield are out of form, they’ve already amassed 38 points, nine more than Crawley.

Survival looks a huge ask…and I'm not sure 8/15 is short enough about the Red Devils returning to the fourth tier.