Gab Sutton weekly: Get in early on Charlton sealing League One play-off glory

In his latest exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) explains why it may pay to take early prices about Charlton coming out on top in the League One play-offs.

Early birds catch the worm

The advantage of betting on who will win the play-offs, before we know who’s in them, is that the prices will be bigger.

For instance, if a certain team is 3/1 once the four are known, they might be 4/1 before the quartet of clubs are confirmed, because there’s the possibility they might drop out of the play-offs, or finish in the automatic promotion spots.

In Charlton’s case, both those possibilities look remote.

The Addicks find themselves six points off Wrexham in second, with the Red Dragons in good form and with a favourable run-in.

Plus, if Phil Parkinson’s side don’t capitalize on their position, Wycombe are better placed to take advantage, only three points behind them with a game in hand.

On the other hand, Charlton are 10 points above seventh-placed Reading, and 11 above eighth-placed – Huddersfield, arguably the greater threat.

So, the South Londoners would probably need to collect maximum points from their remaining six games to finish in the top two, and fewer than two to miss out on a top six berth – neither scenario is very likely.

So, barring a spectacular turn of events, Nathan Jones’ side will be in the play-offs, and it seems likely that they’d be favourites.

'The fans are a big, big part of what we're trying to achieve and the momentum that we've gained.' 🗣️

Nathan Jones looks ahead to Saturday's meeting with Lincoln City ⤵#cafc

— Charlton Athletic FC (@CAFCofficial) April 3, 2025

Addicks look best of the bunch

The semi-final would likely come against Stockport, who have come a long way in a short space of time, having been a National League club as recently as 2022, and therefore still might be short in certain areas, squad wise, as a result of their meteoric rise.

If the Addicks could get past County, they could face any one of a number of teams, but most likely Bolton or Wycombe, favourites to be the other two semi-finalists at the time of writing.

The Trotters are coming to the end of a cycle with a group of peak-aged and experienced players who couldn’t quite get over the line in previous seasons, and have suffered a mental hangover this year, at times lacking some new blood and fresh impetus.

The fact Bolton are sixth is partly a reflection of a weak league: they’d have finished nine points off the Play-Offs with their current PPG return in the 2021-22 iteration of League One, for instance.

Meanwhile, the other Wanderers are in transition under Mike Dodds, having signed 15 new players in January, and with a head coach who’s new to being a permanent number one in senior football, still settling into the job – ironically at a high-pressure stage.

So, things could open up nicely for Charlton, who have taken more points than anyone in the division – including leaders Birmingham! – since December 21st, winning 15 in 21.

Thank you for your brilliant away backing as always 👏

We'll see you back at The Valley on Saturday ❤️#cafc pic.twitter.com/Mya0LQMMxv

— Charlton Athletic FC (@CAFCofficial) April 1, 2025

The formation change from 3-5-2 to 4-2-3-1 has worked a treat for Jones, because the turnaround has come without a particularly notable January window: Tom McIntyre and Alex Gilbert are the only additions and they’ve both only started once.

The capital club boast one of the top right-backs in the league in Kayne Ramsay, one of the best centre-backs in Lloyd Jones, a versatile, flair wide operator in Thierry Small, and a fine midfield pairing of Conor Coventry and Greg Docherty – the former has Carrick vibes, while the latter is an all-action dynamo.

Going forward, Tyreece Campbell is in sumptuous form on the left, while striker Matty Godden is banging them in from the fun, coming into the equation having been lower down the pecking order in the first half of the campaign.

Charlton look irresistible right now and, while they’re currently joint-favourites for promotion via the play-offs at 5/2 with Stockport, that price will almost certainly shorten between now and May.