Gab Sutton weekly: 5/4 Mariners can seal their top-seven spot

In his latest exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) takes a close look at why Grimsby can be trusted to see out their bid for a top seven finish in League Two

League Two 2024-25 play-off race – analysis and betting tips

Grimsby poised to grasp top-seven spot

With three spots mathematically up for grabs, and six teams vying for them, League Two’s Play-Off scramble looks set to go to the wire.

Yet holding the key are Grimsby Town, who occupy that last berth and have their fate in their own hands going into the penultimate round of action.

Back-to-back wins to finish the season would mean that Chesterfield, Colchester and Salford will be relying on a capitulation from either AFC Wimbledon or Notts County instead – and I fancy them to do exactly that.

The Mariners may look back with some frustration at not being in a position similar to that of those two sides, having dropped away points recently at Harrogate and Port Vale after enjoying two-goal leads in both road trips.

While in some ways, that’s a missed opportunity, in other ways it shows that they’ve been doing something right – and in both cases, a late onslaught was hard to avoid, with so much at stake for those respective opponents.

A 4-0 home tonking by Swindon was harder to stomach, but Town have tended to respond well to setbacks this season: they’ve spread their points out very evenly, have been in and around the top seven all year, and this is only the second time they’ve gone more than two league games without a victory.

And, for what it’s worth, the first instance was a five-game winless streak in January, from which David Artell’s side bounced back with four straight wins in a seven-match unbeaten run.

Rosey's second of the afternoon! 🫡#GTFC pic.twitter.com/WLKbZ8A01u

— Grimsby Town F.C. (@officialgtfc) April 22, 2025

Strong signs of progress

Huge strides have been made at Blundell Park this season, with the club having battled against relegation in last year’s 21^st-placed finish, but not just in terms of results – they’ve also made significant stylistic and developmental progress.

Recruits like Cameron McJannet, George McEachran and Jason Svanthorsson have helped boss Artell integrate more of the smooth style he’s wanted to implement since being appointed in November of last season.

Conversely, players who remained over the summer – the likes of Harvey Rodgers, Evan Khouri, Kieran Green and Justin Obikwu – have all found another level to their respective games.

So, albeit with Obikwu only on loan for now, the squad has soared in value, which is crucial for a club that’s looking for sustainable growth under the sensible guidance of co-owners Jason Stockwood & Andrew Pettit, plus CEO Polly Bancroft.

Having got their recruitment spot on, and benefiting from one of the best coaches around when it comes to allying development with delivering competitive results in Artell, Grimsby look a value play to me at 5/4 with Betfair.

Plus, in terms of their Play-Off rivals, Colchester have only won two of their previous seven and seem to be stuttering at the wrong time, not helped by injuries.

Salford, meanwhile, have only won two of their last six and lost 2-1 at home to Accrington Stanley on Good Friday, while Chesterfield, although they haven’t lost many of late, have also only won one of their last five.

So, with none of the teams below putting the heat on Town, combined with their reliability to bounce back from blips, they should get the points they need from their final two games.

Of those, the first is a trip to an MK Dons side who have slumped deep into the bottom half this season and already have their eye on summer recruitment under Paul Warne.

The second is a hosting of AFC Wimbledon, who could well be mathematically in the play offs themselves by the final day.

So, to get odds-against on Grimsby looks the value play ahead of the last two games, as the Mariners look to cap an excellent season with a significant accomplishment.

Gab Sutton's best bet for a League Two top-seven finish

Grimsby to finish in the Championship's top six - 5/4 (Betfair)