Everton vs Liverpool: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Luke Stanbury

Sean Dyche and his Everton side will be fired up for an enthralling derby clash against their fierce rivals Liverpool, as the Reds pursue three points in a desperate attempt to salvage their final season under Jurgen Klopp. 

Both sides enter the game on the back of crucial victories at the weekend. Everton overcame VAR controversy and relegation rivals Nottingham Forest to secure a 2-0 victory at Goodison Park, whilst Liverpool returned to winning form with a comfortable 3-1 triumph at Fulham. A late Mohamed Salah brace in the reverse fixture at Anfield last October ensured a 2-0 victory for the now-visitors. 

Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time on Wednesday evening. 

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Everton

The Toffees enter this encounter in fairly subpar form, though their fixtures have been challenging of late. Crucial victories against Burnley and Nottingham Forest have helped solidify their top-flight status, despite the damaging repercussions of two separate points deductions for breaches in the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability Rules.

The weekend's win softened the blow caused by a 6-0 thumping away at Chelsea in their previous outing, while defeats at Manchester United and Bournemouth also threatened to plunge them further into the relegation battle. These losses have all came on away soil though, and derailing their city rivals' title challenge will only provide added motivation as they return to Goodison Park for the second successive game. 

Everton enter the tie with an underwhelming average of 1.15 points per game. The Toffees have averaged a dreary 1.03 goals per match this season, in sharp contrast to an impressive defensive record which has seen them concede an average of 1.45.

Their form at Goodison Park is almost identical to their away form, with Everton averaging 1.19 points per home game so far. Everton have only scored 34 goals all season, culminating in their dismal 19th position in the goals table, only three ahead of bottom-placed Sheffield United. They have averaged a goal scored every 87 minutes, and an average of 1.13 goals scored per fixture at home signifies their goal-scoring troubles at Goodison Park.

Despite registering an acceptable shots per match of 12.75 at home, a sombre conversion rate of 9% and failing to score in 31% of fixtures at Goodison is indicative of their scoring inefficiencies. If they are to trouble Liverpool and Alisson however, they are likely to in the dying embers of the match, as 26% of their goals have been scored in the 81st-90th minute. 

On the contrary, Everton have proved defensively resolute with an average of 1.13 goals conceded per home match. Opposition sides have struggled to create chances against Dyche's men on Merseyside; they've averaged an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.29 on home soil, in comparison to an inferior 1.56 on their travels. Everton can boast a clean sheet percentage of 38% ahead of the derby, which could prove troublesome for Liverpool’s misfiring forwards. 

Liverpool

Prior to April, Liverpool had exceeded expectations as they looked strong on Premier League, FA Cup and Europa League fronts. However, since a 1-1 draw against Manchester City on March 10th, Liverpool have crashed out of the cup and in Europe, while dropping crucial points in the title race. They did return to winning ways with a 1-0 win against Atalanta midweek though, albeit crashing out with a 3-1 defeat on aggregate, and also secured three crucial points away at Fulham on Sunday. 

Nevertheless, Jurgen Klopp's men have excelled in both home and away fixtures this campaign. Liverpool stand as the third-highest scorers in the division behind Arsenal and Man City, all while averaging 2.24 points per match across their 33 Premier League outings. 

Alongside their goal-scoring proficiency, Liverpool have proven to be defensively astute thus far this campaign, with Virgil Van Dijk back to his formidable best. The Reds can boast an impressive average of 0.97 goals conceded per match, compared to a considerably lesser average of 1.24 from the 2022/23 campaign; a clear demonstration of their defensive improvements.

Liverpool have only managed to keep a clean sheet in 25% of their away fixtures, however, and have continually made sluggish starts on their travels; conceding 39% of their goals in the opening 30 minutes. Additionally, both teams have scored in 75% of Liverpool’s away encounters. Everton and their reluctant forwards will yield some hope from aspects of Liverpool’s defensive fragilities ahead of the tie. 

Prediction

Though Everton have enjoyed relative success in this fixture in previous years with five draws in their last six encounters at Goodison, they've struggled to find the net against their city rivals lately. Everton haven't scored a single goal in their last four meetings, and are hardly in free-scoring form heading into the fixture. 

While Liverpool's recent record at Goodison is far from convincing, they've now registered two victories in their last two outings and will be buoyed by their positive showing at Fulham on Sunday. OddsNow back the away side to secure three vital points in a low-scoring encounter on Merseyside.

OddsNow's Picks: Under 0.5 home goals scored (11/8 @ bet365); Under 2.5 total goals scored (13/8 @ Betfair)

 

 

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